BullCityWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'm just cautiously optimistic about how much moisture could work it's way into my backyard. IF the NAM played out exactly like that then I would probably be in that really good gradient. I'll gladly take it.It's like a bizarro storm for meck county.There is nothing more I'd like to do than thrown the NAM out but the SREF looks so dadgum good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 It appears that way. Now Im really interested in seeing if the GFS,Euro come around. If there is precip it will be frozen/freezing. If western NC sees precip so will we...Can't see the low going west of us. Western trend is still our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Lookout, on 25 Jan 2014 - 09:59 AM, said: We just need the gfs to come on board so ffc and the nws will start honking lol 850s would certainly argue for sleet/freezing rain through 84 in the central part of the state 925mb temps SW VA would have some awesome ratios if we're able to squeeze out at least a little precip from this. ~ -14C 850 temps. Cooold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 It's like a bizarro storm for meck county. There is nothing more I'd like to do than thrown the NAM out but the SREF looks so dadgum good. Very true. Usually we are in the zone that just gets skipped over the last few years where all sides jackpot around us. Perhaps this is our year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'm just cautiously optimistic about how much moisture could work it's way into my backyard. IF the NAM played out exactly like that then I would probably be in that really good gradient. I'll gladly take it. Indeed. I remember during the Christmas storm a couple years back that the models initially had plenty of cold air in place and our concern was whether enough precip could make its way in. Then the NW trend kicked in the final 2-3 days leading up to it and our concerns ended up to be quite the opposite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 GFS is falling in line!!! Gee Clark (Christmas Vacation reference here) you sure you looking at the right maps? SV hasn't even started yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 We just need the gfs to come on board so ffc and the nws will start honking lol 850s would certainly argue for sleet/freezing rain through 84 in the central part of the state. But check out how cold 925mb temps are. Pretty rare to see such cold 925 mb temps with a storm around these parts and certainly argues for a very vigorous area of ice/sleet. 925mb left out the all important surface temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Gee Clark (Christmas Vacation reference here) you sure you looking at the right maps? SV hasn't even started yet. LOL.. someone's getting ansy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Indeed. I remember during the Christmas storm a couple years back that the models initially had plenty of cold air in place and our concern was whether enough precip could make its way in. Then the NW trend kicked in the final 2-3 days leading up to it and our concerns ended up to be quite the opposite! Yeah i was just thinking that it needs to stop right here with the warming LOL. If the storm is this wet, I sure wouldn't want to end up in the icing part of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Gee Clark (Christmas Vacation reference here) you sure you looking at the right maps? SV hasn't even started yet. LOL!!! My bad, it was 1/24 but it sure looked pretty. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z NAM 2m temps for the southeast, most below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Guys, the GSP disco that has been pasted was written around 2:00 am last night. All offices only update their lond term twice a day. Of course they are going to lean heavily on gfs-euro solution when they are similiar. Also the disco's are written by different mets so there can be some small variations on interprations. Long term forecasts are always going to lean conservitive. That doesn't mean they aren't subject to change. TY AshvilleDon, ,I noticed this awhile back, different METS/Different Model Runs, It's all in the interpretation, between whom is reading what.. As well as the Conservative part.. BOT: Lookout, coming from a "weenie" is this what We are looking at wanting? Or "MY" basic understanding what we are looking at? We WANT that Baja Low piece of energy "phased" about where I Indicated ,(the Artic Blast) with the 4 corners energy picking it up ejecting it, (the southern LOW), up the SE Coast? have I about got this right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 It appears that way. Now Im really interested in seeing if the GFS,Euro come around. Lurking but boggled this morning with this guys. I look forward to the euro and gfs now just to see how they handle this more than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The RGEM through the end of its run at 48 hrs looks closer to the NAM than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z NAM 2m temps for the southeast, most below freezing. interesting..your map shows the freezing line further south than cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The 12z Nam says CAE will have some sleet before changing over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The 12z Nam says CAE will have some sleet before changing over Lexington's sounding should be snow. I noticed that on KCAE, the warm nose is very much pronounced. We are right on the borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 In this vertical cross section, which you can create on the NAM if you are a model page subscriber. This is a Birmingham, AL to Wilmington, NC cross section. Notice the warm air in the eastern section of the cross section over parts of Ga/SC. This is where ice would be the big headache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutZero Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Man... you know something's going on when Steve appears! Welcome back! Talk to us! I don't work many shifts these days. They know better. Backed off on the light snow/flurries today and turning attention to Tuesday. If you had a 2:1 ice ratio and the precip in middle GA was all FZRA, I think you're looking at 1/4" ice easy. Of course, that's the gloom-and-doom blend. The SREF is very similar to NAM but that's bc its entirely made up of WRF members (ARW, NMM, NMMB), which are highly correlated with the operational NAM. Edit: OK, actually *looked* at the thermodynamic profile (near Thomaston, GA below). Definitely a IP situation. Not much chance of FZRA. Stand down ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Forgot the image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 GFS is going to be rolling any minute now. For those lurking who are looking at maps saying, "what the hell am I looking for?". Look at the 500mb maps and you want to watch that energy off the Cali coast at around hour 48. Does it rotate down and just sit there getting stronger to the point it can't move or does the GFS push it into the baja right away. If it starts moving east at a good clip then it's GAME ON! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 If I am reading these maps correctly (I'm new to this) it looks like far east nc is getting shafted now...is this correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 interesting..your map shows the freezing line further south than cod. This is the NAM-40, wonder if they are using a different resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 If I am reading these maps correctly (I'm new to this) it looks like far east nc is getting shafted now...is this correct? The NAM doesn't go out far enough to show the end results for what you would eventually get. Remember there is a lot of cold air being pushed into this storm. I think there is going to be a lot of happy people including you (if the NAM is correct). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z NAM 2m temps for the southeast, most below freezing. This looks about the same.... interesting..your map shows the freezing line further south than cod. This is the NAM-40, wonder if they are using a different resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 This looks about the same.... That is really weird. When i looked at it a moment ago, it had the freezing line up through central ga. I know it wasn't a cache problem because I watched it load. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Just FYI, the GFS has been trending that southern wave back east for the past few runs. It just needs to get to the point where the NAM has it for the polar wave to capture and phase with it. Out to 15 hrs now with 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 That is really weird. When i looked at it a moment ago, it had the freezing line up through central ga. I know it wasn't a cache problem because I watched it load. Weird. wait never mind, i see I was looking at the 06z run. My bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 For all the folks enjoying the board. Please keep in mind the donations to the man that runs the board we all enjoy.. This is a very exciting time and we all get to enjoy it because of the up keep and maintenance done to keep this board on the internet. So Lets do him a favor (and ourselves) DONATE Thanks all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Just FYI, the GFS has been trending that southern wave back east for the past few runs. It just needs to get to the point where the NAM has it for the polar wave to capture and phase with it. Out to 15 hrs now with 12z. For me all eyes are on about hour 50...but one thing I have noticed is the PV is a little weaker it looks like on this run. That could allow for a better flow once that energy hits the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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