Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Still this run looks better for places like southern GA and CHS. There is light moisture there when there wasn't any. MHO this is a good sign but we shall see what happens tonight and tomorrow. Looks like there could be some light snow in northern florida/extreme south ga depending on the boundary layer temps light snow on the ga coast at hour 96..just off shore of the carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I did notice that the moisture seems a little closer inland this run?? Yep def. closer and some light precip over YBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like there could be some light snow in northern florida/extreme south ga depending on the boundary layer temps Looks like SAV would be sleet and points north are close to snow. 540 line runs from roughly Albany then northeast from there. SAV and CHS get .10 - .20 and CHS would be all snow it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 when the NAM is your only friend................ Euro/GFS/GGEM vs NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 when the NAM is your only friend................ Euro/GFS/GGEM vs NAM You can say that again. Looked worse at the surface, I don't even see a surface low develop, looks like a cold front. I don't have the vorticity maps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 When the NAM is the only hope then it is time to give up. I say bring on Spring and severe. Cold lover enjoy the one last shot Tues-Wed then it looks bleak for cold for a while, but if we do not get snow I prefer warm and stormy. id much rather have warm and stormy weather than 3 weeks of endless dry and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Per clown, 12Z euro gives Waycross, SAV, and CHS ~1" of legit. snow (850's below 0ZC). 0z gave nothing. A subtle but good shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 When the NAM is the only hope then it is time to give up. I say bring on Spring and severe. Cold lover enjoy the one last shot Tues-Wed then it looks bleak for cold for a while, but if we do not get snow I prefer warm and stormy. lol yeah you are really grasping for straws when the nam is the only main model showing anything. I didn't expect the euro to eject that upper low this run, especially given it's tendency not to do it. But it's just so damn close, i wouldn't write it off just yet. There is still time of course but I really would like to start seeing some truthfully favorable signs pretty soon. This run did take a step in the right direction vs the 0z run so hopefully that is a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Watch the ensembles look 10 times better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Per clown, 12Z euro gives Waycross, SAV, and CHS ~1" of legit. snow (850's below 0ZC). 0z gave nothing. A subtle but good shift. I'm ready to draw a first call map based on my trying to read Goofy's mind all week, but I can't find any crayons, lol. I still think it happens, and across Ga from Atl south to Albany...and maybe a few pellets for Mr. Metallic, lol. Gfs is too far down there, but a good place this far out. Already it's brought back some moisture into Ga for Mon, after saying no at the 0z. I just don't understand why folks are so distressed over maps days away, when we don't see any consistency from run to run, lol. Whatever happens will be a surprise, not a brass band lead by the major models Not based on the stupendously consistent model surety thus far. Maybe 48 hours out, but not now. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Don't give up hope just yet.. give it until tomorrow afternoon before throwing in the towel. As everyone has said NAM looked good (although really stretching it to use the 84hr NAM I know) but also looked at 9z SREF which look pretty good (QPF even back my way in Roanoke). GFS ensembles do not look awful either. I still think this starts to come back west some.. How far? Who knows? Lots of storms in the long term but cold retreats... Figures!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Watch the ensembles look 10 times better. I bet they'll look pretty good. The 12Z GEFS is still much better than the 18Z and is like the 0Z. It isn't quite as good as the 6Z, but that's often how it works, Two steps forward (i.e., 18Z to 0Z to 6Z) and one step back (6Z to 12Z). So, are folks ready for the potential of the next two steps being forward..i.e., 12Z to 18Z to 0Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 When the NAM is the only hope then it is time to give up. I say bring on Spring and severe. Cold lover enjoy the one last shot Tues-Wed then it looks bleak for cold for a while, but if we do not get snow I prefer warm and stormy. 100% agree to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I bet they'll look pretty good. The 12Z GEFS is still much better than the 18Z and is like the 0Z. It isn't quite as good as the 6Z, but that's often how it works, Two steps forward (i.e., 18Z to 0Z to 6Z) and one step back (6Z to 12Z). So, are folks ready for the potential of the next two steps being forward..i.e., 12Z to 18Z to 0Z? That justmakes it even more confusing when the op and ensembles are night and day from each other. Which do you go with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 I know it is the JMA and it isn't nearly as wet as the epic 0Z, but the 12Z fwiw is still a huge to historic hit for the coast (qpf of 1" vs. 1.5") and a major hit for places like COLA (0.5" vs. 1.1") an RDU (0.4" vs. 1.25"). So, it isn't a miss by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Some of you need to keep the winter cancel crap in banter. This is a storm specific thread. If you have nothing to add, do us all a favor and don't post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1214 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 ...DEPTH OF TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY... ...LEADING TOWARD A PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES...MASS FIELD PREFERENCE: 06Z GEFS MEANPRECIPITATION PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWFENSEMBLE MEAN...APPROXIMATED BY WPC QPFTHE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AS ABROADLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE DIGS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON DAY3. AT A GLANCE...MASS FIELD DIFFERENCES WOULD NOT SEEM UNUSUALLYLARGE...BUT THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS APPARENTLY VERYSENSITIVE TO THESE DIFFERENCES. FROM DAY 3 INTO DAY 4...THE 12ZGFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE VERY DRY...WITH NEAR ZERO PRECIPITATIONINLAND OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WHEREAS THEIR RESPECTIVEENSEMBLE MEANS ARE MUCH WETTER. THE 00Z UKMET WAS DRY...BUT THECANADIAN WAS WET. THE NAM/SREF GUIDANCE IS WETTEST OF ALL...BUT ISALSO MORE SHARPLY AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIGGING IN THESOUTHERN PLAINS.PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BREAK OUTIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EASTERN U.S. JET...AND THEN BECOMEENHANCED TOWARD DAY 4 WHEN THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS ROUNDS THEBASE OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE GULF COAST AND CAROLINAS. MODELBIASES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE NAM IS TOO AMPLIFIED AND PLACING TOOMUCH PRECIPITATION IN THE COLD SECTOR...AND THAT THEGFS/ECMWF/UKMET ARE TOO DRY IN THE JET ENTRANCE REGION AT THESELONGER LEAD TIMES. AFTER DISCUSSION WITH THE WPC QPF...WINTERWEATHER...AND MEDIUM RANGE DESKS...WE FAVOR A BLEND OF QPF FROMTHE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE LATTER IS USEDTO DIMINISH THE 06Z GEFS MEAN QPF TOWARD MORE OF A CONSENSUS. THATCONSENSUS IS NOT WELL REPRESENTED BY ANY PARTICULAR OPERATIONALMODEL...BUT WILL BE REPRESENTED IN WPC QPF AND WINTER WEATHERPRODUCTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Anything for JAX? Yep. 1"! So, ~1" from JAX/Way NE to Hatt. So for parts of the coast from JAX to NC, there is 1"+ on the 12Z JMA, CMC, and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 lol yeah you are really grasping for straws when the nam is the only main model showing anything. I didn't expect the euro to eject that upper low this run, especially given it's tendency not to do it. But it's just so damn close, i wouldn't write it off just yet. There is still time of course but I really would like to start seeing some truthfully favorable signs pretty soon. This run did take a step in the right direction vs the 0z run so hopefully that is a start. Until all of the players are on the table the blend is your friend. Using a Euro/Nam blend until the event is within range of the rap/wrf/sref has worked pretty well imby. I'm not saying this will be the case this time, but......this still has my attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yep. 1"! So, ~1" from JAX/Way NE to Hatt. So for parts of the coast from JAX to NC, there is 1"+ on the 12Z JMA, CMC, and Euro. Thanks I presume down here that would be mostly liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Well. The WPC going with the ensemble blend is a lot better than going with the ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Thanks I presume down here that would be mostly liquid Keep the imby questions out of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1214 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 ...DEPTH OF TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY... ...LEADING TOWARD A PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES...MASS FIELD PREFERENCE: 06Z GEFS MEANPRECIPITATION PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWFENSEMBLE MEAN...APPROXIMATED BY WPC QPFTHE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AS ABROADLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE DIGS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON DAY3. AT A GLANCE...MASS FIELD DIFFERENCES WOULD NOT SEEM UNUSUALLYLARGE...BUT THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS APPARENTLY VERYSENSITIVE TO THESE DIFFERENCES. FROM DAY 3 INTO DAY 4...THE 12ZGFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE VERY DRY...WITH NEAR ZERO PRECIPITATIONINLAND OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WHEREAS THEIR RESPECTIVEENSEMBLE MEANS ARE MUCH WETTER. THE 00Z UKMET WAS DRY...BUT THECANADIAN WAS WET. THE NAM/SREF GUIDANCE IS WETTEST OF ALL...BUT ISALSO MORE SHARPLY AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIGGING IN THESOUTHERN PLAINS........................ Looks like HPC is not buying the operationals today. The storm that just roared up the seaboard and dumped snow on the NE was not modeled well until just under 48 hours. Basically popped a low in the lee of the southern Apps. The models did not catch it until the last minute. With the Euro showing a surge of warmth late in its run...would think a snow storm might precede the warm-up. Don't want to give false hope, but HPC is seeing something that doesn't jive today. Probably won't help us in TN, but have to think NC, SC, and GA might still have some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Well less than an hour before the 18z nam comes out. If it holds course with 6z/12z then the model wars will continue and my bet would side with the nam for the time being. Honestly I see no where for this to go but to start a W/N trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like HPC is not buying the operationals today. The storm that just roared up the seaboard and dumped snow on the NE was not modeled well until just under 48 hours. Basically popped a low in the lee of the southern Apps. The models did not catch it until the last minute. With the Euro showing a surge of warmth late in its run...would think a snow storm might precede the warm-up. Don't want to give false hope, but HPC is seeing something that doesn't jive today. Probably won't help us in TN, but have to think NC, SC, and GA might still have some hope. Posted that in the banter thread, the NAM started showing hints at hour 60 or so, GFS joined about hour 48 and Euro was right after. It's funny, this doesn't seem to happen for us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1214 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 ...DEPTH OF TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY... ...LEADING TOWARD A PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES...MASS FIELD PREFERENCE: 06Z GEFS MEANPRECIPITATION PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWFENSEMBLE MEAN...APPROXIMATED BY WPC QPFTHE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AS ABROADLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE DIGS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON DAY3. AT A GLANCE...MASS FIELD DIFFERENCES WOULD NOT SEEM UNUSUALLYLARGE...BUT THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS APPARENTLY VERYSENSITIVE TO THESE DIFFERENCES. FROM DAY 3 INTO DAY 4...THE 12ZGFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE VERY DRY...WITH NEAR ZERO PRECIPITATIONINLAND OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WHEREAS THEIR RESPECTIVEENSEMBLE MEANS ARE MUCH WETTER. THE 00Z UKMET WAS DRY...BUT THECANADIAN WAS WET. THE NAM/SREF GUIDANCE IS WETTEST OF ALL...BUT ISALSO MORE SHARPLY AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIGGING IN THESOUTHERN PLAINS.PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BREAK OUTIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EASTERN U.S. JET...AND THEN BECOMEENHANCED TOWARD DAY 4 WHEN THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS ROUNDS THEBASE OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE GULF COAST AND CAROLINAS. MODELBIASES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE NAM IS TOO AMPLIFIED AND PLACING TOOMUCH PRECIPITATION IN THE COLD SECTOR...AND THAT THEGFS/ECMWF/UKMET ARE TOO DRY IN THE JET ENTRANCE REGION AT THESELONGER LEAD TIMES. AFTER DISCUSSION WITH THE WPC QPF...WINTERWEATHER...AND MEDIUM RANGE DESKS...WE FAVOR A BLEND OF QPF FROMTHE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE LATTER IS USEDTO DIMINISH THE 06Z GEFS MEAN QPF TOWARD MORE OF A CONSENSUS. THATCONSENSUS IS NOT WELL REPRESENTED BY ANY PARTICULAR OPERATIONALMODEL...BUT WILL BE REPRESENTED IN WPC QPF AND WINTER WEATHERPRODUCTS. wow! here is the GEFS. cant find the euro even on weatherbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutZero Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Posted on fb by another NWS forecaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Posted on fb by another NWS forecaster Do you still feel less inclined with this? The way the gfs wants to put it across way south, it seems to me even an slight over running event could bulge up into middle Ala/ Ga. I don't know how close to falling that virga was the other night, but that sure seemed to me to be close with a more energetic pulse back in Texas. I would love to know the genesis of ya'lls thinking on this if you can find the time. Thanks, Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 wow! here is the GEFS. cant find the euro even on weatherbell Lots of spread though. Here is the 250mb jet setup on the NAM and GFS at 60 hrs, this is what has me kinda excited, in addition to the cross polar flow that preceeds this seen at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Posted on fb by another NWS forecaster LOL @ Steve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.