kvegas-wx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm relatively new to the in-depth model analyzing. Would someone be kind enough to explain to me what is meant by the "fresh data" the models will receive tomorrow? Thanks! Once all the pieces are on shore and able to be sampled, that data will be fed into the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 24hr - 0z nam looking the same as 18z thus far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I think we'll see a trend NW with time. This is a pretty classic timeframe for the models to have difficulty with a storm. Whether the trend is good enough for the western and central sections is to be determined, but I think the coastal plain is very much in play for a decent system. in some ways this reminds me of the xmas storm from a few years ago. the players are pretty much identical and i think the margin for error is on our side with this setup. just say patient and don't jump off a bridge yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 24hr - 0z nam looking the same as 18z thus far...Agreed. Closed contour paralleling CA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 21z sref's are correcting East. Remember that they are Short Range models and we are not quite into the short range yet. They might be more useful with less than 48 hours before a storm. the sref is just a mean of various nam members (eta/nmm/arw). it's going to show often times what the operational nam show's. it's not really a different model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Through HR 18, NAM is faster with first piece of energy at H5 diving down from Canada to US. On 12z, it's up in mid Saskachewan in Canada. On 00z, it's already entering Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm relatively new to the in-depth model analyzing. Would someone be kind enough to explain to me what is meant by the "fresh data" the models will receive tomorrow? Thanks! The models will be able to use current radiosonde upper air samples that will provide better model initialization data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I think we'll see a trend NW with time. This is a pretty classic timeframe for the models to have difficulty with a storm. Whether the trend is good enough for the western and central sections is to be determined, but I think the coastal plain is very much in play for a decent system. in some ways this reminds me of the xmas storm from a few years ago. the players are pretty much identical and i think the margin for error is on our side with this setup. just say patient and don't jump off a bridge yet. I agree with you HKY_WX. This is a very complicated set-up, and models do not handle complicated set-ups well. It will be important to monitor the trends over the next few runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 21z sref's are correcting East. Remember that they are Short Range models and we are not quite into the short range yet. They might be more useful with less than 48 hours before a storm. Yeah, and the only thing keeping the mean as west as it is now at 21Z is, once again, a few really crazy members. The MBP3 member, for instance, is showing 12 inches of snow at Hickory. Hah! That helps to get the SREF mean for Hickory above 1 inch. Apparently, only the NMB sub-family of SREF models are gung-ho on the westward trend. Their mean average alone for Hickory is 3.5 inches. The other two sub-families, the NMM and ARW, show nothing at all for Hickory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I think we'll see a trend NW with time. This is a pretty classic timeframe for the models to have difficulty with a storm. Whether the trend is good enough for the western and central sections is to be determined, but I think the coastal plain is very much in play for a decent system. in some ways this reminds me of the xmas storm from a few years ago. the players are pretty much identical and i think the margin for error is on our side with this setup. just say patient and don't jump off a bridge yet. I agree we're still in the game but we'll need to see that NW trend soon; say by 12z tomorrow(or even tonight). Certain things (Baja low ejecting east) have to happen sooner than the actual storm setup in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Vort closed off @ HR 24. Didn't see that on 12z run. Hmmmm. Me thinks this won't eject as quickly as before ala GFS/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 To my untrained eye thru 36 nam looks pretty similar with energy in Montana and southern energy off CA someone please correct me if I'm wrong however h5 hasn't changed much with 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The SW is closed off and looks better on the 00nam at 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yep. Never closed off on 12z run at all through entire run. Let's see where she goes from here. The SW is closed off and looks better on the 00nam at 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I agree with you HKY_WX. This is a very complicated set-up, and models do not handle complicated set-ups well. It will be important to monitor the trends over the next few runs... Yea, it will be fun to watch from a met' perspective. I'm looking forward to the runs over the next 2 days. hopefully things trend our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The models will be able to use current radiosonde upper air samples that will provide better model initialization data. I may be wrong, but isn't it actual raw data from balloons and such vs satellite and surface obs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Nam being slow tonight to post images past 36. Been stuck for several minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 00z NAM is more consolidated, a tad faster with sw at 36HR than 12z run. EDIT: Looks about the same speed, but definitely more consolidated. Just off Baja/Cali. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yea 42 the baja vort is stronger compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 45 vort is a good deal stronger and much more consolidated. Northern energy may be just a tad weaker. Edit: has precip breaking out in southwest TX/northeastern Mexico whereas it was dry previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 NAM has slowed down from it's previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Ruh Roh. @45HR, vort is now slower and west of 12z run. 00zz it's still on western side of Baja. 12z it's entering Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Is it better tho that even tho it's slower to eject it's allowing the northern energy to dig slightly more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The big difference between hr 51 on the 00Z NAM & hr 57 of the 18Z GFS is the northern stream. It's more west on the NAM & that's a good thing... for now. Let's see if it's still able to pick up the southern energy, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The big difference between hr 51 on the 00Z NAM & hr 57 of the 18Z GFS is the northern stream. It's more west on the NAM & that's a good thing... for now. Let's see if it's still able to pick up the southern energy, though. I imagine the kicker is weaker this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The 0Z NAM looks like it's going in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 NS also further north/latter coming down v/s 12z. 12z Idaho compared to 0z us/Can border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Surface looks good at 60 with precip rapidly forming in south central TX whereas the 18z had it sliding by the TX Mexico border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looks better to me through 66, NS digging further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Close to something special @ 66HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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