CaryWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm on my crappy Blackberry and can't see the snowfall map well, but this looks like the most snow (farthest west) of any GFS run so far, wrt this system. It is Cold. Not in our neck of the woods but the gfs has decided to come back to the party. At the front door anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Comparing 12z GFS v/s 0z GFS, much closer... 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Could get interesting for those east of Raleigh. Shame it's a long shot for snow to get up to Asheville, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Actually the GFS has a nice storm off the coast Thursday morning...A 200 mile trend is not impossible at this time frame in the models. I think there are way more questions than answers at the moment, and I will be interested to see what happens with the GEFS and the EURO tonight and the runs through tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I mean, it would be one thing if this was the 324 hour GFS -- but this is starting at 68 hours on the NAM. Does everybody realize just how rare an event this would be? I don't think I really know. Once in 500 years? IKR. Hard to imagine over inch of ice with temps near 25. Would not be good for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Trends are the friend. If Euro gets back on board this is going to get really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 looks like there could be freezing rain in north florida around 90 to 96 hours judging by the cod soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Complicated mess this is. The gfs is actually more progressive with the southern stream while the nam is further west with the northern stream. Could be a case where the gfs is too fast/dominate with the northern stream. Not there yet but certainly a good trend in the right direction for those in the north. If only we can keep it going over the next few runs. I'm probably wishcasting which is why I kept it in banter but I think the GFS is finally catching on. I thought the 18z NAM was garbage and thankfully 00z proved that. I really have a hard time buying that over the next few runs the GFS doesn't latch on to the idea of that southern energy staying stronger longer. Energy out west is still anyone's guess until Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Comparing 12z GFS v/s 0z GFS, much closer... 0z 12z You should try the 06z and the 00z. 3 runs, stupid kind of different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 looks like there could be freezing rain in north florida around 90 to 96 hours judging by the cod soundingsSurface temps are a torch in FL around that time frame. Near +10c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Was there any new data ingest for tonight's runs? I feel like we've seen this show before a few years ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It is Cold. Not in our neck of the woods but the gfs has decided to come back to the party. At the front door anyway. Thanks! It's better. Good trend. Better than what I thought it would show. The streams still don't look that close to phasing to me. Maybe we need a kicker to kick that SW vort out faster. I think the northern energy will come in stronger as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Both the NAM and GFS agree on ice in Destin Tuesday night.... that's just unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Surface temps are a torch in FL around that time frame. Near +10c. Um..no. Just south of the georgia border at 96 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Complicated mess this is. The gfs is actually more progressive with the southern stream while the nam is further west with the northern stream. Could be a case where the gfs is too fast/dominate with the northern stream. Not there yet but certainly a good trend in the right direction for those in the north. If only we can keep it going over the next few runs. My guess, and only a guess is that the GFS and its progressive northern bias and the euro with its holding energy back in the SW. IF* the ENS of both models didn't look much better/wetter than the op runs, I would say we were all in trouble... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Seriously, if the NAM was right, how far back would have to go back to find a storm like this in the Panhandle? Both the NAM and GFS agree on ice in Destin Tuesday night.... that's just unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 UK grazes the coast, only precip through 72, but it looks a tick east of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The UK Met looks west from 12z. It does have a bias towards suppression, though, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Um..no. Just south of the georgia border at 96 hours Thanks for correcting me, I see what you are talking about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 CMC coming back to papa ... popping low in Gulf at 48 hours -- southern s/w a bit more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 CMC better, but still pretty dry at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It's pretty unreal the changes in the precipitation output & H5 from 18z -> 00z GFS along the gulf coast. I had a feeling the GFS may cave slightly, but not wholesale changes in one run. Both the NAM and GFS agree on ice in Destin Tuesday night.... that's just unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well 5h map looked better, but end result pretty much the same for Canadian. EDIT: Spoke too soon -- 84 hour map nice improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I have a feeling the CMC will be closer toward the NAM tonight. The pieces of energy looking very good so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 At 84, the GGEM looks like a carbon copy of the GFS with respects to precip fields. Edit: It's a big hit for east of 95...might have to make it HWY17. Definitely confined to the coast. Great runs for coastal guys and gals tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Hmmm, maybe I didn't wait long enough 72 hour map didn't look so hot, but at 84, it's getting juiced up over the gulf and extreme SE N.C. Much better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Fishel at WRAL just referenced the changing model of the gfs and potential impacts. It ain't over yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Hmmm, maybe I didn't wait long enough 72 hour map didn't look so hot, but at 84, it's getting juiced up over the gulf and extreme SE N.C. Much better than 12z. You were right, I thought it looked better too, the precip field did go further NW, not a ton but looks like GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It's kind of like the GFS in N.C./S.C but more like the NAM with colder/wetter solution on the Gulf Coast. Bottom line: reversed itself considerably from 12z trend. You were right, I thought it looked better too, the precip field did go further NW, not a ton but looks like GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Night and Day change with the CMC as well. Looks very GFS ish, but a bit wetter than GFS. Trends were great for those runs tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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