Jon Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Wow we get over an inch of ice it looks like from the NAM. That's freaking devastating. Edit: my bad thought this was banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I don't trust those NAM snow accumulation maps. They also show a couple inches in Tallahassee by 84 hours...but soundings clearly show a rain/freezing rain setup there. Also the precip type map shows ice...so not sure if its accumulating all frozen precip or what. Regardless, the NAM show a massive ice storm for the S AL/S GA and the Florida Panhandle, possibly reaching as far east as Tallahassee. And precip is still streaming into the region at the end of the run. I'm skeptical, given the climatology of Tallahassee Ice Storms (i.e. I don't know of any). We'll see. Yeah.. Most other maps have that, but stuff coming through our WSI computers looks about right... It doesn't show any snow in Tally, but shows a crazy ice (not shown on this map) for locations over Tally and north & west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Check out @Wright_Weather's Tweet: https://twitter.com/Wright_Weather/status/427274726218555392 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm becoming increasingly concerned with models not really doing much for Atlanta area at all, let alone any of the Piedmont areas of the southeast. I honestly thought we'd get a pretty large NW trend going, but it just doesn't seem like it. If I was in central GA and even parts of southern GA, I'd be becoming increasingly happy with what models are showing. Maybe it's time to take a quick road trip to Macon this Wednesday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I like that graphic...I still think a sleet/snow combo for csg to man *IFFF* there is any qpf at all up our way. The southern portions of bama and ga might get slammed... Thanks! That's what I was trying to show there... That the best chance of anything would be coastal areas of SC/NC/GA with more sleet chances across the Gulf Coast. Still unsure how far north the precip makes it, hence the slim chance. lol! I did this around 5:30 this afternoon and will probably leave it as is for the 11. Tomorrow could be a big day (or crusher of dreams). Heck, the 00Z GFS could lead us that way. I'm always hesitant with leaning on the NAM, but the ensembles are wetter than the op GFS & Euro, so I can't discount that... The joys of forecasting wintry stuff in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm becoming increasingly concerned with models not really doing much for Atlanta area at all, let alone any of the Piedmont areas of the southeast. I honestly thought we'd get a pretty large NW trend going, but it just doesn't seem like it. If I was in central GA and even parts of southern GA, I'd be becoming increasingly happy with what models are showing. Maybe it's time to take a quick road trip to Macon this Wednesday ? Climo tends to win out in These events a lot, sure historic events do and have to occur eventually but odds are if this baby is north enough to impact the SE it will probably be warmer and north of what the nam shows right now 98 out of 100 times...also due to overrunning you have to watch for more precip to maybe break out further north and over a more widespread area in this sort of event so even in this exact setup ATL may see something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I think the this is the trend we will see if the trough digs... feel free to correct me if im wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 4km 00z hi res nam Reflectivity @ Hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 As Mike Dross with Wright-Weather said...high risk this shears out to the ENE in the fast flow. We'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Climo tends to win out in These events a lot, sure historic events do and have to occur eventually but odds are if this baby is north enough to impact the SE it will probably be warmer and north of what the nam shows right now 98 out of 100 times History wouldn't be history if it didn't happen. At some point, the dice will roll the right number. This could be the number for many in the deep deep south and coastal areas. Of course climo and chances are against it, but for some of these places, it's been over 100 years. It can and will happen again whether or not it's next week or decades down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I agree about the NAM part...To be honest, the ONLY reason why I still say anything is possible our ways, is because the ENS are much wetter/wetter than the op of the GFS and Euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Hey guys! Give this a whirl! I think most of you will like it. http://wxcaster.com/PointBasedProducts.html This is for Columbus showing the snow. This is for Marianna, FL and it shows the warm layer between 800-900 mb which leads to the ice there/ I have Relative Humidity & Temperature showing for both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 History wouldn't be history if it didn't happen. At some point, the dice will roll the right number. This could be the number for many in the deep deep south and coastal areas. Of course climo and chances are against it, but for some of these places, it's been over 100 years. It can and will happen again whether or not it's next week or decades down the road. I know VLD and JAX saw snow in 89 and New Orleans back in 09 but nothing of this magnitude at least for NO, anyone know their last measurable amount over say a half inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 00z GFS looks further west with that northern energy compared to 18z GFS. Out to 30. It's a good bit west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I know VLD and JAX saw snow in 89 and New Orleans back in 09 but nothing of this magnitude at least for NO, anyone know their last measurable amount over say a half inch? Not sure about New Orleans, but the last 1 inch plus event in Mobile was Dec 18, 1996. The February 2010 event produced a half inch in Mobile, but 3-5 inches just north of town. The greatest snow event on record in Mobile is 6 inches set back in 1895. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 @33 vort out off of the Cali coast is further east of the 18z GFS. Energy in Canada is a good bit west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Here comes 00z GFS. @24 HR, stronger and closed off sw than at @36HR 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I know VLD and JAX saw snow in 89 and New Orleans back in 09 but nothing of this magnitude at least for NO, anyone know their last measurable amount over say a half inch? Christmas Day 04, 1.5 inches apparently. http://www.myneworleans.com/New-Orleans-Magazine/January-2013/When-It-Snowed-in-New-Orleans/ NOLA had some decent snows in the last 150 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 NAM shows a near perfect snow sounding for around here. I am still HIGHLY suspect of this, but best sounding I have seen for snow around here in a LOOONG time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 @39 just for reference 18z had energy in central Montana. 00z has it almost into Wyoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This could be a good run of GFS. I'm skeptical but I like the placement of that northern energy. Energy off of the Cali coast looks better as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I like the looks of that northern stream digging on the 39 image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I love these kinds of events down here. That sleet line on the northern edge could be 15 miles wide and waffle back and forth. Some of the best have set up through here, but you can miss them by 15 miles too. I heard Griffin got an inch in 73, and Orchard Hill/Milner 15 miles down about 2, so it cuts off quick as Macon is only 70 miles and they got 16 or so. Candyman, at least no zrain for up here as of yet And this could be on of those heartbreaking being too far north while being south of Atl, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I know VLD and JAX saw snow in 89 and New Orleans back in 09 but nothing of this magnitude at least for NO, anyone know their last measurable amount over say a half inch? Christmas Storm 2004 N.O. had little over half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Pretty big changes on the GFS this run compared to 18z. Northern energy digging further west....Cali energy further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 48 hour looks much improved with both streams this could get good as burger referenced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS is kicking that vort east. Compared to 18z energy there was just on the west side of the Bajah 00z has it entering Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Do we actually have 2 intact pieces of energy at 48HR on the GFS??? Could it be??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Regardless of the outcome of this run, its def. trending better each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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