Disco-lemonade Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 It kinda looks like the nam sent the low to cuba.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Love the info y'all provide but could someone please explain something for me right fast(I hope this is not a suspension worthy question) I see a lot of people on here saying it looks bad. It that for far inland areas or for within 50 miles of the coast areas? Just a little confused with some maps I have seen and some comments I have seen. Thanks for the help and GO DONATE! It is mostly referring to far inland because most members live there. The coastal rep. is decent but seemingly quiet only because the numbers are much smaller. Where do you live? SE NC within 50 of coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 It kinda looks like the nam sent the low to cuba.... Oh the memories of "Groundhogzilla"....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Oh the memories of "Groundhogzilla"....... I think you are thinking of the February 2010 Valentine's Day storm, which the GFS sent to Cuba 90 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Per the NAM, a sleet sounding for CHS at hour 84. Sleet-ZR mix in Savannah. Augusta very close to SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 forecast disco from kchs. "TUESDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER DURING THIS TIME AS ADEQUATE LIFT AND COLD AIR LOOK TO BE IN PLACEFOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS/ECMWF ASWELL AS OTHER PIECES OF INTERNAL GUIDANCE ALL AGREE THAT FAVORABLELIFT/MOISTUREWILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONEBY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF COLD/DRY AIR TO THENORTH TO SUPPORT SNOW. CLIMATOLOGICAL SNOW RATIOS OF 7:1 WITH MODESTQPF AMOUNTS COULD SUPPORT WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I think you are thinking of the February 2010 Valentine's Day storm, which the GFS sent to Cuba 90 hours out. I thought it was early Feb 2009 actually (if I am not mistaken). We had more of a split flow for that storm however and it just simply never materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 It kinda looks like the nam sent the low to cuba.... If this Nam were to come close to verifying, there'd likely be a serious ZR for coastal ga and sc and then back into ga. There'd still be much more precip after that, which would be the worst in many decades for many there. The 18z dgex will look wild fwiw lol. I was looking back at SAV ZR/IP (more than a trace) of the last 100 years and found six events. But the worst by far were in the 1914-1934 period. For these 6 storms, ATL got major IP twice (4"+!), 4" snow followed by mix once, 1-3" if snow twice, and very little or no wintry once. So, these stats would seem to suggest that IF SAV were to get mainly ZR or IP, that ATL would have a good chance for 1+" of s. Now if SAV gets mainly snow, things wouldn't look so great for ATL 1" snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Would someone please help me in understanding the jets in play. Reference the graphics Dracula posted above, that looks to me like the polar and Arctic jets are already phased at the base of the PV in eastern Canada, which in turn phases, or at-least partially interacts with the sub-trop. Just trying to understand better. Thanks! It looks like the polar and subtropical jets are merged. I just can NOT understand the surface analysis. perfect upper level setup with the exception of that vort clutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I thought it was early Feb 2009 actually (if I am not mistaken). We had more of a split flow for that storm however and it just simply never materialized. Well, yeah, Groundhogzilla was in February 2009. I don't remember the GFS sending it to Cuba then, but maybe it was. That storm was a disaster. I think I remember some models showing it as a triple phased bomb at one point. Anyways, the NAM did throw a little bone there at the end, though we are going to have to see a lot of changes to get inland areas back in the game. I'd like to start seeing some changes pretty soon if we're going to have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 15z SREF showing 2-3" snow for Birmingham compared with 9z showing 1-2". Also on 18z NAM looks like moisture is screaming north on simulated radar loop post 84HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 More from NWS CHS: note they're going with wetter GFS ens because ops dry outliers! "TUESDAY....THINGS BEGIN TO GET EXTREMELY TRICKY TUESDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND NAM ALL OFF A VARIETY OF TRACK SOLUTIONS WITH INHERENT MOISTURE/QPF AND P-TYPE PROBLEMS. THE NAM/GEM APPEAR TO BE TOO WET/COLD WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF LOOK TOO FAR OFFSHORE/DRY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ARE CERTAINLY THE OFFSHORE OUTLIERS COMPARED TO THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS AND PREFER A WETTER/COLDER SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GEFS MEAN WHICH TAKES LOW PRESSURE TO POSITION THAT IS MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR P-TYPE PROBLEMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH POWERFUL JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH-NORTH AS COLD/DRY AIR FILTER SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. AS DIABATIC PROCESSES TAKE HOLD...THE COLUMN WILL COOL RAPIDLY AS PRECIPITATION RATES INTENSIFY. THIS WILL ALLOW A FAIRLY STEADY TRANSITION OF RAIN-SNOW FROM NORTH-SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY...LOWER-MID 40S THEN DROP TO BELOW FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POPS WILL BE INCREASED TO 30 PERCENT MOST AREAS." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 More from NWS CHS: note they're going with wetter GFS ens because ops dry outliers! "TUESDAY....THINGS BEGIN TO GET EXTREMELY TRICKY TUESDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND NAM ALL OFF A VARIETY OF TRACK SOLUTIONS WITH INHERENT MOISTURE/QPF AND P-TYPE PROBLEMS. THE NAM/GEM APPEAR TO BE TOO WET/COLD WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF LOOK TOO FAR OFFSHORE/DRY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ARE CERTAINLY THE OFFSHORE OUTLIERS COMPARED TO THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS AND PREFER A WETTER/COLDER SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GEFS MEAN WHICH TAKES LOW PRESSURE TO POSITION THAT IS MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR P-TYPE PROBLEMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH POWERFUL JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH-NORTH AS COLD/DRY AIR FILTER SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. AS DIABATIC PROCESSES TAKE HOLD...THE COLUMN WILL COOL RAPIDLY AS PRECIPITATION RATES INTENSIFY. THIS WILL ALLOW A FAIRLY STEADY TRANSITION OF RAIN-SNOW FROM NORTH-SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY...LOWER-MID 40S THEN DROP TO BELOW FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POPS WILL BE INCREASED TO 30 PERCENT MOST AREAS." Wow that doesn't sound half bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 More from NWS CHS: note they're going with wetter GFS ens because ops dry outliers! "TUESDAY....THINGS BEGIN TO GET EXTREMELY TRICKY TUESDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND NAM ALL OFF A VARIETY OF TRACK SOLUTIONS WITH INHERENT MOISTURE/QPF AND P-TYPE PROBLEMS. THE NAM/GEM APPEAR TO BE TOO WET/COLD WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF LOOK TOO FAR OFFSHORE/DRY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ARE CERTAINLY THE OFFSHORE OUTLIERS COMPARED TO THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS AND PREFER A WETTER/COLDER SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GEFS MEAN WHICH TAKES LOW PRESSURE TO POSITION THAT IS MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR P-TYPE PROBLEMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH POWERFUL JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH-NORTH AS COLD/DRY AIR FILTER SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. AS DIABATIC PROCESSES TAKE HOLD...THE COLUMN WILL COOL RAPIDLY AS PRECIPITATION RATES INTENSIFY. THIS WILL ALLOW A FAIRLY STEADY TRANSITION OF RAIN-SNOW FROM NORTH-SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY...LOWER-MID 40S THEN DROP TO BELOW FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POPS WILL BE INCREASED TO 30 PERCENT MOST AREAS." And the WPC is going with an ensemble blend. Seems like a lot of pros are favoring the ensembles more than the ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 And the WPC is going with an enseble blend. Seems like a lot of pros are favoring the ensembles more than the ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 CAE says they won't believe it until they see the whites of its eyes .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE DURING THISPERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NAM IS THE MOSTAGGRESSIVE MODEL BRINGING SNOW AND SLEET INTO THE ENTIRE CWA WHILETHE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP IT DRY OVER THE CWA. HAVE MADE LITTLECHANGES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THEEXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OFRUNS TO SEE HOW THESE SOLUTIONS EVOLVE BEFORE ANY INCREASE IN THECONFIDENCE OCCURS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 30 DEGREESBELOW NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 It kinda looks like the nam sent the low to cuba.... The last time I saw this look was Jan. 2011. We all flipped our lids because the GFS took the LPS to Cuba. We could not believe it and people went straight to Lookout's cliff and had a look over the edge. I remember vividly Larry and Robert telling everyone to quit freaking out, that she would come north with later model runs and about 36-48 hours out she did. The NWS offices and the local mets started playing catch up in a hurry. I am hoping that by late tomorrow, with better sampling we will see a similar solution. I have not given up by a long shot yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 fwiw, here is sref totals through 87 hours. what I wouldn't give for a few of these sref members to be right. The differences between some of them are pretty high. Most of them are on the drier side so the mean is sort of skewed by those few that are very wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Updated…missed doing it for the 0z run. RDU Accumulating 2" 6"+ 1/25 - 12z 25 11 7 1/24 - 12z 34 21 9 1/24 - 0z 33 21 7 1/23 - 12z 35 23 17 ILM 1/25 - 12z 32 24 19 1/24 - 12z 45 36 26 1/24 - 0z 45 35 28 1/23 - 12z 44 32 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Despite the drier cmc at 12z, the very wet cmc ens mean of 0z hardly changed at all! I will be shocked if the op GFS/euro runs don't trend wetter soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 CAE says they won't believe it until they see the whites of its eyes .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL BRINGING SNOW AND SLEET INTO THE ENTIRE CWA WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP IT DRY OVER THE CWA. HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS TO SEE HOW THESE SOLUTIONS EVOLVE BEFORE ANY INCREASE IN THE CONFIDENCE OCCURS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. Lordy, I wouln't either. What a hellish time to be a met, lol. This thing could be nothing, could be a nuisance for you and me, could be a major deal for you and me, or could blow up into something more I'm glad I can just surmise for fun T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Despite the drier cmc at 12z, the very wet cmc ens mean of 0z hardly changed at all! I will be shocked if the op GFS/euro runs don't trend wetter soon. It is crazyhow different the ensemble means have been from the ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Despite the drier cmc at 12z, the very wet cmc ens mean of 0z hardly changed at all! I will be shocked if the op GFS/euro runs don't trend wetter soon. Finally looking at the 5h vorticity maps of the 12z Euro, I have to admit it did look better around hours 60-72 but just not enough stream interaction, but way better then the previous 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 18z GFS looks worse than terrible, have to wait to see what it's ensembles say but everything we need to change happens before hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 18z GFS looks worse than terrible, have to wait to see what it's ensembles say but everything we need to change happens before hour 72. Southern stream system looks like it's trying to go south of the entire Baha peninsula while northern stream digs less. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The January 2011 storm in this area had snow (and some ice) for the inland part of the Charleston area, but it was ice in the metro (Charleston, North Charleston, other areas). The Ravenel Bridge, the Don Holt Bridge, and the Wando Bridge (the three major bridges in the area) all had to be closed down, and that was for a little bit of ice. The effects could be a lot worse if it sets up as a rush hour/evening storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Despite the drier cmc at 12z, the very wet cmc ens mean of 0z hardly changed at all! I will be shocked if the op GFS/euro runs don't trend wetter soon. pretty impressive for an ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 18z gfs more west with the precip shield, almost on the coast at 87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Comparing the 0z Euro (hr 78) v/s 12z Euro (hr 66)... Top is 12z run and bottom is 0z, still a ways to go though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 ggemens.JPG pretty impressive for an ens mean Looks good and its been fairly consistent with this slow west trend of the moisture....... 1.25" QPF with 15-20:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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