Poimen Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Game. Set. Match. GGEM caves...just barely grazing ERN NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 bad news folks...canadian has taken it away for inland areas/most of us a decent hit along the immediate coast of sc/nc but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Well that's not good. I'm still going to hold out until Monday morning before taking the leap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 bad news folks...canadian has taken it away Or good news, I haven't had a Canadian snowstorm verify here in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 And the GGEM caves some... disappointing. It's still a big hit for coastal NC/SC, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Well, 12z Euro pretty much a game ender or extender at this point. If it tilts towards GFS this is all but academic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 SV is out to 33 with the CMC. You can tell right away it is further east with our northern energy. That being said it doesn't line up well with the RGEM from what I can...and isn't the RGEM the higher res? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 ok reality check: We can't live model run to model run. You need to remember in 2010 that we lost the Christmas storm a couple of runs and it came back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Or good news, I haven't had a Canadian snowstorm verify here in a long time. I lost count on how many times it has given me fantasy snow or ice this year. But I was really hoping to see it hold on. IIRC back in 2010, the canadian out performed the gfs/euro by sticking to it's guns. You never really want to see a model take a storm away after showing it for several runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 And the GGEM caves some... disappointing. It's still a big hit for coastal NC/SC, though. So shocking to see the GFS leading the way, still want to see the GFS ensembles and Euro/Euro ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 And the GGEM caves some... disappointing. It's still a big hit for coastal NC/SC, though. Yeah I said " a little something" but it's still a good hit over the extreme eastern sc coast and nc coast (but nothing compared to earlier runs) . But otherwise, it's bye bye baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 we are now left with just the nam, some members of sref, just a few gfs ensembles and some ensemble members of the euro as far as inland snow goes. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I don't know why everyone automatically thinks this is going to do the NW trend...If anything, IMO the change will be dry and down to the SE. I would think if your NW and dry right now, its prolly not going to happen up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 If I was a betting man in Vegas and had the odds of NW trend or SE trend I would definitely put my money on the NW trend just because I have been in the sweet spot 3-5 days before and been burnt many a time. Seems almost climo in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 What is causing the SREFs to be seemingly so far north and west? I know there's a lot of spread with those, but the mean itself is pretty far north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Y'all are killin me, just like what everyone was doing in Dec '10. This isn't game set match, this isn't all she wrote, it's not anywhere near over even if the euro shows nothing. If 0z Monday shows nothing then I will write it off but until then ANYONE from the mountains to the coast are game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yeah I said " a little something" but it's still a good hit over the extreme eastern sc coast and nc coast (but nothing compared to earlier runs) . But otherwise, it's bye bye baby. Ironically, snowwise, the 12Z CMC, which has much lighter precip., gives more snow to the coast than prior runs and most recent models, which have given mainly either major ZR/IP or nothing. SAV gets ~0.15" and CHS ~0.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 ok reality check: We can't live model run to model run. You need to remember in 2010 that we lost the Christmas storm a couple of runs and it came back... Y'all are killin me, just like what everyone was doing in Dec '10. This isn't game set match, this isn't all she wrote, it's not anywhere near over even if the euro shows nothing. If 0z Monday shows nothing then I will write it off but until then ANYONE from the mountains to the coast are game. ok reality check: We can't live model run to model run. You need to remember in 2010 that we lost the Christmas storm a couple of runs and it came back... Ok, I'm glad to see I'm not the only one feeling this way !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yes, history has usually favored the NW trend, but most of the time that was because of the cold bias the GFS had....The pattern doesn't scream NW trend really at all. In fact, the pattern screams meat grinder, dry and cold. I want everyone to get wintry precip, I really do, but I just don't know in this case. I DO think the best chances are along the coast with some chances over the middle portions of the states. Northern portions of the states could see some, but I just don't think this is the pattern for it. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Y'all are killin me, just like what everyone was doing in Dec '10. This isn't game set match, this isn't all she wrote, it's not anywhere near over even if the euro shows nothing. If 0z Monday shows nothing then I will write it off but until then ANYONE from the mountains to the coast are game. No one has said it's all over. No one has said it won't change back either. Just pointing out what the run is showing. It's always annoying that people often times will claim you are saying/forecasting one thing when you are actually just pointing out what the hell the models are showing. That should always be obvious to people but it's amazing how many can't tell the difference Ironically, snowwise, the 12Z CMC, which has much lighter precip., gives more snow to the coast than prior runs and most recent models, which have given mainly either major ZR/IP or nothing. SAV gets ~0.15" and CHS ~0.25". I imagine folks down there would gladly take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Still amazed the ensemble mean is so much wetter on the GEFS, get's the 0.25-0.5" precip line almost to RDU, 0.5"+ confined to coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 WPC is basically saying "not going with that energy out west." ... UNDERNEATH...APOTENTIAL WILD CARD IS IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER LOW THAT MAY FORMNEAR SRN BAJA CALIF AND EVENTUALLY BE KICKED NEWD. PREFER TODOWNPLAY THAT SCENARIO GIVEN LIMITED PATTERN NOR COMMON GUIDANCESUPPORT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Still amazed the ensemble mean is so much wetter on the GEFS, get's the 0.25-0.5" precip line almost to RDU, 0.5"+ confined to coast. Yep, the 12Z GEFS is much wetter than the 12Z GFS though it isn't as wet as the 6Z GEFS. It is similar to the 0Z GEFS and MUCH wetter than the very dry 18Z GEFS. So, we again have a very dry outlier in the 12Z gFS. I'd like to ask this again. Are the GFS and Euro op., as single members that have no perturb. of the init., that much more telling than the many much wetter members? In other words, how much better is the op. than any other member? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 JMA at 72 hours still looks great, we got that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yep, the 12Z GEFS is much wetter than the 12Z GFS though it isn't as wet as the 6Z GEFS. It is similar to the 0Z GEFS and MUCH wetter than the very dry 18Z GEFS. So, we again have a very dry outlier in the 12Z gFS. I'd like to ask this again. Are the GFS and Euro op., as single members that have no perturb. of the init., that much more telling than the many much wetter members? In other words, how much better is the op. than any other member? If the Euro would just tick back west that would give us hope at least, supposedly the best model on the planet, we can take variability of GFS and CMC but not when the Euro joins them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 If I was a betting man in Vegas and had the odds of NW trend or SE trend I would definitely put my money on the NW trend just because I have been in the sweet spot 3-5 days before and been burnt many a time. Seems almost climo in this area. True. Seen it happen many many times. This will probably be the same case in point. Which really euro didn't look half bad last night and there is some similarities between that in the NAM. Right now I'd go EE and more than likely GGEM,GFS will play catch up later tonight into tomorrow. But thats my thoughts.... either way I'm not worried about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 EE rule could come into effect soon. For those that don't know that terminology let me briefly explain it. If the nam and euro are in agreement don't bet against them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 JMA at 72 hours still looks great, we got that going for us. Is that the 00Z or 12Z? My freebie site doesn't update till around 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 EE rule could come into effect soon. For those that don't know that terminology let me briefly explain it. If the nam and euro are in agreement don't bet against them. needless to say the game pretty much rides on this Euro run, cause I'd say at this point 'we' are down 2 scores early in the 4th quarter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Is that the 00Z or 12Z? My freebie site doesn't update till around 2pm. AmericanWx/RaleighWx's models has JMA through 72 completed. I for the life of me can't find UK 5h vorticity maps, I used to have it book marked, it showing a weak low off the coast, a little to far east though. Anyone??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.