WeatherNC Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Check out the RH fields at 84. Now that is what you want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 This is for areas near Blakely GA (south of Columbus but north of Bainbridge) for Tuesday morning... Like I said... Ice.... Wow, overrunning event that far south I guess tends to produce ice. Have you seen soundings for Atlanta, Augusta, Columbia, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Columbus, GA has a heck of a sleet/mix sounding Tuesday afternoon... 850s are at 0, but warmer between 850 & 800. It's not enough to melt all of it, but it then refreezes everything below 875ish. This would be fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 So the NAM model is a good choice to look at because we are getting inside of 3 days? It sure does look nice for most on this newest run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 GFS starts any second now... let's see what it has to say. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_model_run_status.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 So the NAM model is a good choice to look at because we are getting inside of 3 days? It sure does look nice for most on this newest run! Still out to 84 hours. Be cautious, be very cautious. Gonna have to see what the GFS and Euro have on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 It looks to my untrained eye like it's got a great fetch out of the gulf if you extrapolated.....but it is the 84 hour NAM of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The WPC is leaning quite west with their snowfall probabilities. This is the most current image which stretches from 12Z Monday to 12Z Tuesday. I suppose if there were another frame, the shaded areas would extend further east. This seems to match up well with the SREF probabilities that QueenCityWx just posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yeah NAM has been pretty good for last few runs. Similar to but faster than the GGEM solution. Will be interesting to see if 12z GFS finally budges and what Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The NAM isn't that good for us western NC folks, but it is a trend in the right direction. If the southern stream will phase with the northern stream in the gulf then lookout folks this will be interesting for a big portion of the interior southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 the 12z nam would probably be a touch further south as far as the sweet spot goes in terms of liquid equivalent but certainly still great for north ga/western carolinas. The area with the highest LE totals could end up being a lot of sleet or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Wow, overrunning event that far south I guess tends to produce ice. Have you seen soundings for Atlanta, Augusta, Columbia, Atlanta would pick up quite a bit of snow (not sure how much as I'm pouring over it now...) but that's IF the moisture makes it that far north... The 12Z NAM really flings moisture northward as it tries to develop a low at 850 over southern MS. We need that to occur for moisture to work that far north. August and Columbia look decent, but there's still some warming at 800 mb that could create a mix of snow/sleet. In fact, August looks to start out as mainly sleet Tuesday morning before going to snow/sleet mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 the 12z nam would probably be a touch further south as far as the sweet spot goes in terms of liquid equivalent but certainly still great for north ga/western carolinas. The area with the highest LE totals could end up being a lot of sleet or ice. That....is....just....beautiful even if it doesn't sweet spot MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Still out to 84 hours. Be cautious, be very cautious. Gonna have to see what the GFS and Euro have on board. The good news is though is some of the most important aspects of this storm happen within 48 hours in the far west and to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 12 NAM was a little south from 6z which would still give a great hit for many. In north NC it still looks great but it would take a little longer to start: 12z NAM simulated radar at 84 hours(6z had N.NC area already in precip 6 hrs earlier): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z NAM looks icy as all hell down my way. There might be a bit of snow by hr84, but that looks FZDZ or FZRN for most of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Had no idea COD had such a great weather site. Thanks for sharing those.. the 12z nam would probably be a touch further south as far as the sweet spot goes in terms of liquid equivalent but certainly still great for north ga/western carolinas. The area with the highest LE totals could end up being a lot of sleet or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The WPC is leaning quite west with their snowfall probabilities. This is the most current image which stretches from 12Z Monday to 12Z Tuesday. I suppose if there were another frame, the shaded areas would extend further east. This seems to match up well with the SREF probabilities that QueenCityWx just posted. WPC's winter impact graphics are based solely on the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Look at this sounding from the NAM at hr 84 in Bainbridge, GA... Ouch. The vertical velocities are highest in the FL Panhandle/south GA up through the Coastal Carolinas. In fact, Charleston's sounding looks somewhat similar to this... IF!!! and that's a big IF, the NAM is correct.. FL Panhandle through southeast GA to the coastal Carolinas (Charleston through OBXish) would deal with more ice than snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutZero Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 And finally.... 84 hours 84hr.png Hey guys, long-time no see. Working the short-term desk today, but watching this system closely. Not sure what's up with those snow graphics but that's gotta include sleet or something. Our mid level temps and 850-700 thicknesses do not imply snow that far south at all. Our 12Z NAM display has a sharp southern edge of snow from Newnan to Athens. South of that would be FZRA or IP and could be quite significant if it pans out, which I doubt at this point. GFS and CMC slower and drier, 00Z ECMWF is bone dry. Long live the super-blend /*sarcasm*/! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 That....is....just....beautiful even if it doesn't sweet spot MBY. GIven the placement of the 0 line, you may very well be in the sweet spot there. Plus, it is fully phasing... the trough will continue to dig south and draw up a lot more precip. Low will bomb out over the SE coast with that setup. SREF does get the full phase but still puts down a great overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Had no idea COD had such a great weather site. Thanks for sharing those.. My pleasure. I especially like their loops. You can really get a feel for how things are progressing when you put the maps into such smooth loops, like the radar loop. Also they have world wide gfs loops which is really cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Hey guys, long-time no see. Working the short-term desk today, but watching this system closely. Not sure what's up with those snow graphics but that's gotta include sleet or something. Our mid level temps and 850-700 thicknesses do not imply snow that far south at all. Our 12Z NAM display has a sharp southern edge of snow from Newnan to Athens. South of that would be FZRA or IP and could be quite significant if it pans out, which I doubt at this point. GFS and CMC slower and drier, 00Z ECMWF is bone dry. Long live the super-blend /*sarcasm*/! Man... you know something's going on when Steve appears! Welcome back! Talk to us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Is this seriously trending from being completely offshore, to being a western NC and TN special? Will I see accumulating snow this year? It appears that way. Now Im really interested in seeing if the GFS,Euro come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z NAM looks icy as all hell down my way. There might be a bit of snow by hr84, but that looks FZDZ or FZRN for most of it. I agree Chris it's a win/lose for you guys. Win for us as there is not enough of a cold press to force it south. NAM snowfall maps never do well with differentiating between snow and ice but you can see where that 540 line is to your north just far enough. My guess would be ZR to a switch over to a buttload of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z NAM looks icy as all hell down my way. There might be a bit of snow by hr84, but that looks FZDZ or FZRN for most of it. RIGHT!? It's a little better back my way in Columbus, but still. It doesn't look like pure snow and it could very well be a wet snow, so ratios don't look that great. Oh well... Let's see if the the GFS & Euro trend west with their runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Hey guys, long-time no see. Working the short-term desk today, but watching this system closely. Not sure what's up with those snow graphics but that's gotta include sleet or something. Our mid level temps and 850-700 thicknesses do not imply snow that far south at all. Our 12Z NAM display has a sharp southern edge of snow from Newnan to Athens. South of that would be FZRA or IP and could be quite significant if it pans out, which I doubt at this point. GFS and CMC slower and drier, 00Z ECMWF is bone dry. Long live the super-blend /*sarcasm*/! We just need the gfs to come on board so ffc and the nws will start honking lol 850s would certainly argue for sleet/freezing rain through 84 in the central part of the state. But check out how cold 925mb temps are. Pretty rare to see such cold 925 mb temps with a storm around these parts and certainly argues for a very vigorous area of ice/sleet. 925mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 GIven the placement of the 0 line, you may very well be in the sweet spot there. Plus, it is phasing... the trough will continue to dig south and draw up a lot more precip. Low will bomb out over the SE coast with that setup. I'm just cautiously optimistic about how much moisture could work it's way into my backyard. IF the NAM played out exactly like that then I would probably be in that really good gradient. I'll gladly take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Hey guys, long-time no see. Working the short-term desk today, but watching this system closely. Not sure what's up with those snow graphics but that's gotta include sleet or something. Our mid level temps and 850-700 thicknesses do not imply snow that far south at all. Our 12Z NAM display has a sharp southern edge of snow from Newnan to Athens. South of that would be FZRA or IP and could be quite significant if it pans out, which I doubt at this point. GFS and CMC slower and drier, 00Z ECMWF is bone dry. Long live the super-blend /*sarcasm*/! Welcome back! The little bit of a warm nose around 750 to about 825 really kill it for areas south of what you said. It's like a nasty mix for Columbus and gets worse towards Delta's way in Macon. BUT... Like you said, this is the NAM and we'll see what the others have to say about all of it. Oh... The joys of forecasting. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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