FallsLake Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Below is the 6z NAM simulated radar at 84. I do think we need the GFS and euro onboard but I keep thinking about the x-mas storm when they lost it at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The 6z NAVGEM is a crushing hit too, it's usually the most progressive/supressed model there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Robert was talking about how the NAM picks up on the SW energy quicker than the other models and has in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The 6z NAVGEM is a crushing hit too, it's usually the most progressive/supressed model there is. Do you have a good link for the navgem? I normally look at it on ewall, but I don’t think they post the off-hour runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Do you have a good link for the navgem? I normally look at it on ewall, but I don’t think they post the off-hour runs. Here you go, destroys bulk of GA/SC/NC. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=fnmoc_namer&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looking at 0z GEFS members, 5 of the 11 had good hits, 3 of the 11 would be roof collapsing snows in RDU. The 6z GEFS mean looks twice as good as the 0z mean, would have to bet more members showing hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Robert on FB: This may not be sampled properly in the data. I don't think any model had much of it in the 12z runs just looking at the initialized 5H panels. Notice the systems west of Baja, California. This is what the NAM is taking east and trying to pick it up with the wave diving into the Rockies Tuesday. Models notoriously mishandle those systems way out west until we get closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The 0z GGEM ENS mean is even better than its Op. Even with all this can't deny the Euros trend, JI may be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The ensembles have been leading the way with the cold outbreaks. Can they lead the way with the precip?..... I wouldn't bet against them right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Guys the Euro is doing what the Euro always does. It almost never has run after run of the same thing. It ALMOST ALWAYS has one or two runs that lose the storm only to bring it back. After seeing the NAM and GFS this poster is not worried. Now if come Monday all models lose it then yes it's gone but for now this is just business as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 WXSOUTH @WxSouth 3m NAM is alone in handling west-of-Baja system much differently than globals. Others don't pick it up.#hugeimplications Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Great overnight disco folks. What a roller-coaster read over the 6+ new pages. Like Steve stated above, the next 3-4 total model runs should give us a better idea... I say the 48 hr rule should be in effect with everyone posting !!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 By my count.. 11 of the 21 SREF member’s are major hits for the interior Southeast. Here’s a night Recap: These models show major hits for a large portion of the southeast: GGEM,NAVGEM,NAM,SREF’s, JMA. These models show very little for anyone: OP EURO, OP GFS, UKMET. These models are in between(good for the coastal plain): GFS ens, euro ens. I would say the outcome is anybody’s guess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 By my count.. 11 of the 21 SREF member’s are major hits for the interior Southeast. Here’s a night Recap: These models show major hits for a large portion of the southeast: GGEM,NAVGEM,NAM,SREF’s, JMA. These models show very little for anyone: OP EURO, OP GFS, UKMET. These models are in between(good for the coastal plain): GFS ens, euro ens. I would say the outcome is anybody’s guess right now. I tend to favor a Carolina coastal special but not by much. All options are realistic at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Trends for the GFS show the upper level low forming over the SW where it didn't have it before. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_height_trends.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 It appears the NAM sees an interaction with the northern and southern streams http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nam_06_200_nws_loop.php Fwiw jb said a few days ago that if the northern and southern combined look out major storm. He also said that's a BIG IF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Fwiw jb said a few days ago that if the northern and southern combined look out major stormyeah this has been on the table. Unfortunately without a - nao and lack of a strong southern jet the northern stream is either too fast or too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The 12Z NAM starts in about 30 minutes http://www.daculaweather.com/4_model_run_status.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 By my count.. 11 of the 21 SREF member’s are major hits for the interior Southeast. Here’s a night Recap: These models show major hits for a large portion of the southeast: GGEM,NAVGEM,NAM,SREF’s, JMA. These models show very little for anyone: OP EURO, OP GFS, UKMET. These models are in between(good for the coastal plain): GFS ens, euro ens. I would say the outcome is anybody’s guess right now. Allan Huffman Just tweeted the samething for the most part on his page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 From GSP forecast discussion: THE OP MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE INCOMING S/WAND POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW SCENARIO TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. THE 00Z CMCCONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN OUTLYING SOLN. THE MODEL IS MUCH SLOWER THANTHE OTHER OP MODELS DUE TO THE INGESTION OF A PACIFIC LOW. THISGIVES THE MODEL MORE SRN ENERGY AND AN UNREALISTIC LOOKINGSTRETCHED/OUT H5 TROF AXIS...THUS NOT ALLOWING THE SFC HIGH TO BUILDINTO THE AREA AS STRONGLY. THIS ENABLES PERSISTENT ULVL DIV TOPRODUCE A WEAK COASTAL LOW AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF QPF ALONG THECOAST WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP OVERRIDING THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. THESEIDEAS HAVE BEEN GIVEN LITTLE TO NO WEIGHT AND INSTEAD WILL GO WITHTHE GOOD AGREEMENT BTW THE GFS/ECMWF...BOTH OF WHICH BRING IN A MORERELAXED S/W AND NOT MUCH IF ANY SFC REFLECTION LOW DEVELOPMENT. THISIDEA MAKES SENSE DUE TO THE OVERALL BROADNESS OF THE PARENT TROFWHICH KEEPS IT/S ERN PERIPHERY WELL OFFSHORE. THUS...PRECIP THROUGHWED WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST ALIGNED IN A REGION OFOFFSHORE WEAKNESS. ALL OF THIS TO SAY...THE CWFA FCST IS NOW DRYTHROUGH THU WHICH FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS DECREASING POP TRENDS ANDTHINKING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 yeah this has been on the table. Unfortunately without a - nao and lack of a strong southern jet the northern stream is either too fast or too strong. I agree and he said only possible not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 GA and SC folks should really like the new DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Guys the Euro is doing what the Euro always does. It almost never has run after run of the same thing. It ALMOST ALWAYS has one or two runs that lose the storm only to bring it back. After seeing the NAM and GFS this poster is not worried. Now if come Monday all models lose it then yes it's gone but for now this is just business as usual. I agree 100%, it was either yesterday morning or Thursday night I posted that the Euro would probably lose the storm all together yesterday and then bring it back by tomorrow. It is a typical trend it does. The gfs has been crap IMO all winter, the NAM has been able to sniff a few storms out before the big models , ala the snow in LA/Texas yesterday. Not saying I think the NAM is right but I don't completely discredit it. So I'm not worried yet,need to wait until 0z models Sunday night before I jump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 6z GFS Ensemble mean spreads the love for almost all of GA, SC, and NC. There must be some absolute bombs on the individual members! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I agree 100%, it was either yesterday morning or Thursday night I posted that the Euro would probably lose the storm all together yesterday and then bring it back by tomorrow. It is a typical trend it does. The gfs has been crap IMO all winter, the NAM has been able to sniff a few storms out before the big models , ala the snow in LA/Texas yesterday. Not saying I think the NAM is right but I don't completely discredit it. So I'm not worried yet,need to wait until 0z models Sunday night before I jump For now you can write off those models as possibly just losing the storm. Now if 24-36 hours from now we still don't have it then it is time to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 NAM surface Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 From GSP forecast discussion: =http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF]ECMWF[/url]...BOTH OF WHICH BRING IN A MORE RELAXED S/W AND NOT MUCH IF ANY SFC REFLECTION LOW DEVELOPMENT. THIS IDEA MAKES SENSE DUE TO THE OVERALL BROADNESS OF THE PARENT [url=http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php? Guess GSP doesn't consider the NAVGEM, JMA and 84 hour NAM as model support for the GGEM :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 From GSP forecast discussion: THE OP MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE INCOMING S/W AND POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW SCENARIO TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. THE 00Z CMC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN OUTLYING SOLN. THE MODEL IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE OTHER OP MODELS DUE TO THE INGESTION OF A PACIFIC LOW. THIS GIVES THE MODEL MORE SRN ENERGY AND AN UNREALISTIC LOOKING STRETCHED/OUT H5 TROF AXIS...THUS NOT ALLOWING THE SFC HIGH TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AS STRONGLY. THIS ENABLES PERSISTENT ULVL DIV TO PRODUCE A WEAK COASTAL LOW AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF QPF ALONG THE COAST WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP OVERRIDING THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. THESE IDEAS HAVE BEEN GIVEN LITTLE TO NO WEIGHT AND INSTEAD WILL GO WITH THE GOOD AGREEMENT BTW THE GFS/ECMWF...BOTH OF WHICH BRING IN A MORE RELAXED S/W AND NOT MUCH IF ANY SFC REFLECTION LOW DEVELOPMENT. THIS IDEA MAKES SENSE DUE TO THE OVERALL BROADNESS OF THE PARENT TROF WHICH KEEPS IT/S ERN PERIPHERY WELL OFFSHORE. THUS...PRECIP THROUGH WED WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST ALIGNED IN A REGION OF OFFSHORE WEAKNESS. ALL OF THIS TO SAY...THE CWFA FCST IS NOW DRY THROUGH THU WHICH FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS DECREASING POP TRENDS AND THINKING. Now that is depressing. That being said GSP is usually pretty conservative when things are a few days out. Let's hope the NAM and CMC are on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 6z GFS Ensemble mean spreads the love for almost all of GA, SC, and NC. There must be some absolute bombs on the individual members! There are 2 members which deliver significant snowfall to the area. The rest are dry for most everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Guess GSP doesn't consider the NAVGEM, JMA and 84 hour NAM as model support for the GGEM :-) Rarely see them mention these models. Almost always the GFS and Euro... agreeing with one or the other, or a blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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