burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Southern GA gets wrecked. @114 it has over an inch there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 ***** storm of the century really for the coastal plain/just inland if this verified. Depending on exact soundings it's either a monster snow storm or a monster ice storm along the coast. That looks awesome for almost everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 CMC actually looks pretty close to the NAM at 5h out to 81. The NAM is usually overly amped at 84 hours vs what actually occurs but its usually in the GFS ballpark but with a noticeable north and west amplification, in this case its night and day vs the GFS leading me to further believe the GFS is way too flat...the biggest red flag of all though is the NOGAPS with precip to near Columbus GA at 108 hours...the NOGAPS is by far the most suppressed and progressive model of all, that tells us for sure we're going to see the GFS start changing alot in the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 That looks awesome for almost everyone. I don't know..it's hard to get excited over the 0.30 or so that falls here when 1.5 inch plus falls as snow not far from savannah lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yeah, it's hard to tell on the UKMet, but it didn't appear to back the flow along the east coast very well Comparing the 5h vorticity maps of the GFS vs CMC it's not even close at day 3-4, the CMC digs NS 200 miles further SW. This is at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 CMC snow accum map with 10:1 ratios has well over a foot of snow in E NC. SC gets slammed as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The NAM is usually overly amped at 84 hours vs what actually occurs but its usually in the GFS ballpark but with a noticeable north and west amplification, in this case its night and day vs the GFS leading me to further believe the GFS is way too flat...the biggest red flag of all though is the NOGAPS with precip to near Columbus GA at 108 hours...the NOGAPS is by far the most suppressed and progressive model of all, that tells us for sure we're going to see the GFS start changing alot in the next day or two. Thanks for updates SnowGoose! We'll take any info you can give us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Dark blues are 8 inches....light purple is 10 - 12...wow this is out to 123 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 So hard to try and add up mm from those maps, but looks like between 40 and 45 at 108 and 120 hours, then another 5 or so at 132 for areas of SE S.C. -- 50 mm = just under 2 inches of liquid. Mercy. ***** storm of the century really for the coastal plain/just inland if this verified. Depending on exact soundings it's either a monster snow storm or a monster ice storm along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I don't know..it's hard to get excited over the 0.30 or so that falls here when 1.5 inch plus falls as snow not far from savannah lol Something must not be right on my end. I'm seeing less than that for KCAE? UGH. I'll try deleteing my cache etc. Thanks for the heads up with this post.. Snow maps should be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I don't know..it's hard to get excited over the 0.30 or so that falls here when 1.5 inch plus falls as snow not far from savannah lol I'll take half a foot of snow and not care what anyone else gets, honestly. It almost seems like a carbon copy of 3/1980 when it comes to sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The NAM is usually overly amped at 84 hours vs what actually occurs but its usually in the GFS ballpark but with a noticeable north and west amplification, in this case its night and day vs the GFS leading me to further believe the GFS is way too flat...the biggest red flag of all though is the NOGAPS with precip to near Columbus GA at 108 hours...the NOGAPS is by far the most suppressed and progressive model of all, that tells us for sure we're going to see the GFS start changing alot in the next day or two. Thanks, it's tough to take the GFS seriously with everything else saying no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 CMC verbatim has about a sharp cutoff as you can get for WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Check out 144 on the CMC -- low still sitting there off Hatteras -- precip about a 2-iron off the Carolinas coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Comparing the 5h vorticity maps of the GFS vs CMC it's not even close at day 3-4, the CMC digs NS 200 miles further SW. This is at 84 hours. Yep, CMC is digging the NS energy from SW Colorado into the Ark/La/Tex. GFS runs it from Nebraska to TN...that's the key difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like 0.1" gets as far west as around Wilkesboro on the GGEM. GSO has maybe 0.20" and somewhere around Burlington or Hillsborough gets 0.3". Charlotte looks like 0.15-0.2" or something like that. Somewhere around Raleigh is where you get above 0.5" and you get into a real historic storm. The whole state gets 0.05"+ QPF, from Murphy to Manteo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Good lord, that's insane.. 6" starts at the purple. 9" is where the pink begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 ***** storm of the century really for the coastal plain/just inland if this verified. Depending on exact soundings it's either a monster snow storm or a monster ice storm along the coast. I will so be on the Outer Banks with my cameras if that comes to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'll take half a foot of snow and not care what anyone else gets, honestly. It almost seems like a carbon copy of 3/1980 when it comes to sensible weather. I wish I had more experience with ratios since this would be a very cold storm. I'd be happy with 20:1 though. But still. Many of you have seen over a foot of snow before. I never have so It would be a bit disappointing and frustrating seeing a foot and half plus that far south. I mean if the canadian was right, you are talking about the difference between a really good snow and an epic snow that will be remembered a hundred years from now. It would sure beat nothing though that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The NAM is usually overly amped at 84 hours vs what actually occurs but its usually in the GFS ballpark but with a noticeable north and west amplification, in this case its night and day vs the GFS leading me to further believe the GFS is way too flat...the biggest red flag of all though is the NOGAPS with precip to near Columbus GA at 108 hours...the NOGAPS is by far the most suppressed and progressive model of all, that tells us for sure we're going to see the GFS start changing alot in the next day or two. Yeah, normally you feel pretty good with the NAVGEM where it's at, but hard to believe GFS is so different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Good lord, that's insane.. 6" starts at the purple. 9" is where the pink begins. Keep in mind that is 10:1 ratio. Ratios over the back end, including eastern nc will be quite a bit higher. Temps are probably in the teens in eastern nc and upper teens/near 20 over the back end of the precip shield with 850mb temps of -10 to 12c. Eastern nc would probably be measuring in feet, not inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I believe the gfs is on crack but I also don't have a lot of faith in the CMC. It has shown a lot of storms this winter. It would be a relief if the euro and ukmet showed this type of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Imma still needing a big NW shift. That way we all can enjoy the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Different setup/pattern but those totals look familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Correction....0z GEFS mean looks much better, has 0.25-0.5" precip making it west of RDU almost to CLT, 0.10" line back to at least Wilkesboro. Other cities.. 0.25-0.5" to CAE and ATL and points SE 0.5"+ on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 This is getting really REALLY close to a possible 73 solution in SC. This looks too good. Wish the GFS would get on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The NAM is usually overly amped at 84 hours vs what actually occurs but its usually in the GFS ballpark but with a noticeable north and west amplification, in this case its night and day vs the GFS leading me to further believe the GFS is way too flat...the biggest red flag of all though is the NOGAPS with precip to near Columbus GA at 108 hours...the NOGAPS is by far the most suppressed and progressive model of all, that tells us for sure we're going to see the GFS start changing alot in the next day or two. I so agree. If there is a storm I can see it being an I 20 south storm in Ga easily. I can't help but feel the Gfs will find the solution in the end. It may be supressed, but not that suppressed, and in the short run it found last nights events pretty well I had pretty good virga, from a plume that was north of where it showed for a lot of runs on the Gfs, but it was edging it up into Ga in the last few runs. And it worked up pretty good in to even my area. I'd be surprised if someone down this way didn't see a flake or two this morning early. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The QPF field is skewed IMO with regards to the CMC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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