burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Out to 30 to my untrained eye the 12z GFS looks pretty close to the NAM at the same time frame. Two pieces of energy off the coast of Cali. Northern energy has a piece broken out on the west side. 6z had the northern energy all as one piece. Also had the energy out west as one strung out piece of energy. Small changes but could spell good things down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z GFS is nearly identical to the NAM out to 48 with that southern piece of energy. Has it in 3 pieces with about the same orientation. Where it goes from here though is anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Baja low farther east at 48. That's good. Need to watch the polar wave too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Baja low farther east at 48. That's good. Need to watch the polar wave too. @58 it's further east of 6z but not as far as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 51 looks like it's more east with the northern energy than the nam at the same timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 I know the 0z op. models weren't on board, but I think it is deceiving to think of the 0z GFS and Euro as not being on board considering their much wetter ens mean. Also, the 6z GFS ens was very juicy. I 'd be pretty surprised if the 12z GFS and Euro we're not much wetter than the 0z. Even the 6z GFS trended much wetter just offshore. Those 0z op runs were a big psyche out IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 57 not digging with the northern energy don't know if that will hurt us down the line if the main southern energy can get going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 63 has that closed contour again over Baja Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z took baby steps in the right direction but doesn't look like it's gonna cut it. Northern energy digging a little further west, SW energy a little further east. If you took the flow of the NAM with the energy of the GFS you would be in business big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 It is trending in the right direction.. not quite there yet. The polar s/w on the NAM is a bit farther west and able to capture the southern wave. GFS still just misses it and leaves the southern wave behind. NAM has the polar vort over N Utah at 66 hrs. GFS has it over central WY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Just to compare. The GFS at 75 has our energy just chilling east of the Bajah in Mexico. NAM had it going into TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 It is trending in the right direction.. not quite there yet. The polar s/w on the NAM is a bit farther west and able to capture the southern wave. GFS still just misses it and leaves the southern wave behind. That's the key phrase. If it had done the opposite, I would have said we might be in trouble. Still a good sign. I didn't expect any radical changes anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 WeatherBell getting on board! WeatherBELL Analytics LLC Snow comes to the Gulf Coast !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 @93 that energy is trekking east. That's a very good sign. Not where we want it yet but it's showing the potential. It's much further east than the 6z or 00z had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Just to compare. The GFS at 75 has our energy just chilling east of the Bajah in Mexico. NAM had it going into TX. Yes, but also notice the placement of the polar s/w as it enters the US. THat's also another factor we need to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The SREF plumes for CLT did go down a bit at 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The GFS refuses to dive the northern vort as far south as the NAM....thus the trough never sharpens. It's been like this for many many runs now and it is the key difference between dry/wet for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 4m Looks like 12z GFS is going to remain dry over the Southeast. Model wars continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yes, but also notice the placement of the polar s/w as it enters the US. THat's also another factor we need to watch. Yep much diggier in the west. The 6z was a little more west so as you said it's a step. I like that it's quicker even though it's too late with that big cutoff it forms. That also gives me hope since it's seeing changes but hopefully it just isn't grasping what those changes are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebaney Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 GFS is going to be rolling any minute now. For those lurking who are looking at maps saying, "what the hell am I looking for?". Look at the 500mb maps and you want to watch that energy off the Cali coast at around hour 48. Does it rotate down and just sit there getting stronger to the point it can't move or does the GFS push it into the baja right away. If it starts moving east at a good clip then it's GAME ON! Thank you!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yep, the 12z GFS is still dry through 108. However, it is much wetter down below at 108. 2nd wave coming up? Edit: 2 nd wave at 120 not coming up enough but wasn't on prior 3 runs. Comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yep, the 12z GFS is still dry through 108. However, it is much wetter down below at 108. 2nd wave coming up? Doesn't quite get it's act together. I am a little worried with how the NAM pushed that energy southward kind of like the GFS does. We are riding a fine line of how south it goes. Hopefully the CMC holds serve and the Euro gives us a surprise today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yep, the 12z GFS is still dry through 108. However, it is much wetter down below at 108. 2nd wave coming up? yeah at least it's a little wetter over the gulf But the differences aloft between the gfs and nam is pretty incredible because of the timing differences and the interaction or lack there of with the northern stream/sw. the 12z gfs did trend a little better vs the 06z run....being slightly faster with the southern sw and a bit further west with the northern stream. Still has a ways to go but at least it didn't go the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Honestly I think it has more to do with the polar branch s/w. if you compare the vorticity maps of the various models, the 00z GGEM is actually further west with this southern stream energy at hour 96 when compared to hour 84 of the GFS. The GFS's polar branch s/w is further east (over KS/NE) and thus it dampens out this southern s/w energy and it is ultra suppressed. The GGEM has this same s/w over Co/NM and it is able to interact with this southern stream energy. The 12z NAm also has the s/w back over CO/NM, but it is faster with the southern stream energy, and hence the interaction/partial phasing occurs further west and the precip is further north and west. The 00z ECMWF has the polar s/w in a similar path/digging as the NAM/GGEM but it may be playing to its typical bias of allowing the southern branch energy to cut off too much. Notice it never brings this southern energy out and hence it is all polar branch. We need both branches to interact and at the right time. My hunch is that the ECMWF will come back around in the next couple cycles. My hunch is that the NAM may be too fast with the southern stream energy since it could have boundary issues. I think the GFS though is likely too supressed. My hu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Honestly I think it has more to do with the polar branch s/w. if you compare the vorticity maps of the various models, the 00z GGEM is actually further west with this southern stream energy at hour 96 when compared to hour 84 of the GFS. The GFS's polar branch s/w is further east (over KS/NE) and thus it dampens out this southern s/w energy and it is ultra suppressed. The GGEM has this same s/w over Co/NM and it is able to interact with this southern stream energy. Good to hear. Guess that will be the focus of my attention in future runs as Wow pointed out earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 So odds that one model has this thing pegged correctly right now vs odds we get some kind of averaged out consolidation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Is the op member of GFS/Euro actually that much better than any one other ens member at 84 hours? I know it has no perturb. in init. Does that make it that much better? If so, that would mean legit concern. But if not, not really so much. Any opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Both models at 48 have the southern parcel as one would expect nearly identical. It's the northern stream that by even 48 hours begins to show large differences. NAM has the PNA in tact, whereas the GFS begins breaking it down. Result is the NAM with it's wsw flow aloft further west ingests the southern system and partially phases with the stream diving down thru the Rockies. Can't be much longer before one or the other caves. Unusually stark differences between the two models with not much room for compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The SREF plumes for CLT did go down a bit at 9z a lot of variation between members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 00Z JMA at 72 hours. It handles the northern stream very similarly to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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