senc30 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Talk with a local meteorologist friend of mine in southeastern nc. He was saying that even with the shifts it still looked promising for the coast inland to about 100 miles. He knows all the maps y'all know and I certainly don't but that is how he broke it down to me. That sound about right to y'all? I love this site and will be donating to it because it is well worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like I might have spoke to soon, looks like the JMA will miss the phase…showing the closed low in Mx, amazing how every model is caving to the GFS's idea yesterday, hopefully they are all wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yep, the 12Z GEFS is much wetter than the 12Z GFS though it isn't as wet as the 6Z GEFS. It is similar to the 0Z GEFS and MUCH wetter than the very dry 18Z GEFS. So, we again have a very dry outlier in the 12Z gFS. I'd like to ask this again. Are the GFS and Euro op., as single members that have no perturb. of the init., that much more telling than the many much wetter members? In other words, how much better is the op. than any other member? The operational members are the More skilled and many times will lead the ens members. Not always but often . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 GEFS members are bleak, 1 nice one and 1 that grazes, 9 misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 JMA is still a big hit. Yes straw grasping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Interesting to watch the goings on with the various models today. No single model run today will determine whether or not there is still a potential. Lots of changes are likely to still occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Interesting to watch the goings on with the various models today. No single model run today will determine whether or not there is still a potential. Lots of changes are likely to still occur. Folks should remember that the energy coming into Canada will not properly sampled until probably Sunday night. That is a big factor here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 EE rule could come into effect soon. For those that don't know that terminology let me briefly explain it. If the nam and euro are in agreement don't bet against them. Using this blend has worked well for mby the past few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Folks should remember that the energy coming into Canada will not properly sampled until probably Sunday night. That is a big factor here. This gets brought up a lot, and I'm curious: how much more accurate will tonight's 00z models be compared to today's 12z models if the energy hasn't been properly sampled yet? The models will throw many different solutions, but will it really be more accurate before the energy is even sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 This gets brought up a lot, and I'm curious: how much more accurate will tonight's 00z models be compared to today's 12z models if the energy hasn't been properly sampled yet? The models will throw many different solutions, but will it really be more accurate before the energy is even sampled? Overall models tend to have a good handle on the general course of the energy. However when your talking 100 mile shifts making differences this is where you really need a good sample. A lot of times it gets overplayed but just look towards last week when you didn't get a true sense of where energy was going until 24 hours out and parts of NC got snow where there was not supposed to be any 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Talk with a local meteorologist friend of mine in southeastern nc. He was saying that even with the shifts it still looked promising for the coast inland to about 100 miles. He knows all the maps y'all know and I certainly don't but that is how he broke it down to me. That sound about right to y'all? I love this site and will be donating to it because it is well worth it. Your a good man to DONATE to this site.. I hope more will follow your example !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Seeing subtle improvements on the 48 hour 12Z Euro vs. the 0Z at 60. Let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Out to 48 it looks like the Euro is taking a baby step in the right direction. Northern energy looks slightly more westward. SW looks different as well though it does look like that energy is cutting off but it's also further NE off the Cali coast than 00z had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 through 48 hours our upper low/sw is further north than the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Welcome back! The little bit of a warm nose around 750 to about 825 really kill it for areas south of what you said. It's like a nasty mix for Columbus and gets worse towards Delta's way in Macon. BUT... Like you said, this is the NAM and we'll see what the others have to say about all of it. Oh... The joys of forecasting. LOL! This is what I think will wring out eventually. I've been telling you a mid Ga storm is coming Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Overall I would say there is some improvement with the 12z GFS mems compared to 6 and 0z. 4 on the model center this run have sig SN, a couple more put down trace amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Out to 48 it looks like the Euro is taking a baby step in the right direction. Northern energy looks slightly more westward. SW looks different as well though it does look like that energy is cutting off but it's also further NE off the Cali coast than 00z had it. certainly less separation through 54 hours than the 0z run. We'll see if it means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Interesting to watch the goings on with the various models today. No single model run today will determine whether or not there is still a potential. Lots of changes are likely to still occur. And I think it is going to drive us crazy. So wild how one model can be showing a big storm for a lot of foks and another shows nothing. Madening that such small details can make such a big differencce. And then you have the GFFS and Euro ensembles different from the ops. No wonder it is so hard to forecast snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Out to 60 that energy out west looks very close to linking up and moving east. Probably not going to do it this run but it looked like a step in the direction we want to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 At 60, trough less + tilted fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 How did the Euro match up with the NAM during the first 48 hours of their runs? I think that is key. I would look, but I'm not at a computer right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Overall I would say there is some improvement with the 12z GFS mems compared to 6 and 0z. 4 on the model center this run have sig SN, a couple more put down trace amounts. p002.JPG Gotta like where we are sitting right now at least I think our conversation last night is going to hold up hard to go against Skippy..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Not happening this run but it did take a step. Question is, is it going to continue that tonight or is this just a wobble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Out to 60 that energy out west looks very close to linking up and moving east. Probably not going to do it this run but it looked like a step in the direction we want to go. I was thinking it probably wouldn't do so this run either but if it trended this much over the next 1 or 2 runs we might be in business on the euro. Frustrating to see it so very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 EURO looks better on trying to kick the energy out, but its a no go this run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 closed upper low over baha at hour 72 but again it's northeast of the 0z run but it will miss. EURO looks better on trying to kick the energy out, but its a no go this run as well. So close but yet so far away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 How did the Euro match up with the NAM during the first 48 hours of their runs? I think that is key. I would look, but I'm not at a computer right now. My maps don't have the actually vorts...but it looked like it was pretty close to the NAM until about hour 54. 18z NAM and 00z NAM are going to tell the tale tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I did notice that the moisture seems a little closer inland this run?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 When the NAM is the only hope then it is time to give up. I say bring on Spring and severe. Cold lover enjoy the one last shot Tues-Wed then it looks bleak for cold for a while, but if we do not get snow I prefer warm and stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Still this run looks better for places like southern GA and CHS. There is light moisture there when there wasn't any. MHO this is a good sign but we shall see what happens tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.