Shawn Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Lexington, SC is dry. 0.2 snow misses my house by 3 miles it seems; haha! Anyway; expect yet another wonderful EPS run WPC/HPC have been going with the ensembles for this period since the op has not been consistent. Just remember; there was no storm really at all until 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 This run of the Euro says round number 2 right behind it. yeah a very weak disturbance gives north ga some very light snow at hour 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Idk guys do you think the surface is portrayed right? You would think with the more amplified look and the better 5h setup that it would have maybe shifted more west or is it the southern wave ejecting out too fast like were seeing on the GFS and subsequently the northern energy not being able to catch up and phase in time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Euro get's about .1" to Chapel-Hill, .2" to RDU, 4" to I-95 and 0.5" to PGV. Hopefully the mean is wetter. Pack, is that QPF or snowfall amounts? I'm taking it to mean snowfall amounts, given the disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Idk guys do you think the surface is portrayed right? You would think with the more amplified look and the better 5h setup that it would have maybe shifted more west or is it the southern wave ejecting out too fast like were seeing on the GFS and subsequently the northern energy not being able to catch up and phase in time? I half way agree there should be more moisture inland. Just looking at 700RH or so. Lookout made a good note about the low high tailing it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Pack, is that QPF or snowfall amounts? I'm taking it to mean snowfall amounts, given the disappointment. Precip. Would have like the Euro to have been a little slower/stronger, not terrible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Actually round 2 fizzled out. Nothing to see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Precip. Would have like the Euro to have been a little slower/stronger, not terrible though. Good deal...2-4" of snow for RDU, maybe more with higher ratios. Everything would stick. I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Its 5 days out people, these things almost always tend to trend wetter on the Euro especially as the low forms and approaches and it gets a better handle on the 700mb moisture etc....I think the actual track is getting pretty locked in maybe a few changes especially once it gets sampled but I am impressed by the lack of wavering overall and typically when this many models are this close together its a good sign that they have a good handle on the way its going to play out. Timing of the waves and when the trough goes neg etc though will all factor in as to how far and how much moisture is pulled inland and we most likely wont see that start to change much until Monday. The best news is its not trending east lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Good deal...2-4" of snow for RDU, maybe more with higher ratios. Everything would stick. I'd take it. I'm with you. Plus, I think there is plenty of room/time for some westward adjustment in the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Euros has RDU at 11F when it starts snowing and drops below 10F. Not sure we have ever seen that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Euros has RDU at 11F when it starts snowing and drops below 10F. Not sure we have ever seen that. I can't recall anything remotely close to that. If true, the ratios would be super high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Check out @RaleighWx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/426784895780655104 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I can't recall anything remotely close to that. If true, the ratios would be super high. That would be a truly historic and memorable experience. Check out @RaleighWx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/426784895780655104 Can't get TWTR at work. What's it say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Check out @RaleighWx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/426784895780655104 Couldn't justify staying home for that amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Its 5 days out people, these things almost always tend to trend wetter on the Euro especially as the low forms and approaches and it gets a better handle on the 700mb moisture etc....I think the actual track is getting pretty locked in maybe a few changes especially once it gets sampled but I am impressed by the lack of wavering overall and typically when this many models are this close together its a good sign that they have a good handle on the way its going to play out. Timing of the waves and when the trough goes neg etc though will all factor in as to how far and how much moisture is pulled inland and we most likely wont see that start to change much until Monday. The best news is its not trending east lol....Kind of like the NC clipper the other day , everybody watching shifts for NC , and then 2 days out it has Washington to Boston with a foot almost out of nowhere ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 12z Euro totals. ILM/HAT 10-11 inches. RDU 1.3. CLT 0.4. HKY 0.3. GSO 0.4. FAY 1.7. ECG 5.7. MYR 9.5. CHS 7. SAV 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Euros has RDU at 11F when it starts snowing and drops below 10F. Not sure we have ever seen that. Wow. Of course, if it shifts west a bit as we're hoping, I imagine temps here won't be nearly that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The Candian also has temps in the teens during the event. Ratios could be very high with this event. I am not sure what, but more than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 That would be a truly historic and memorable experience. Can't get TWTR at work. What's it say? Notice the People's Weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Will be interesting to see if ECMWF ENS mean is still more juicy then op Euro. This is actually pretty typical for these types of events as the GFS is probably too supressed with the GGEM/ECMWF probably more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 12z Euro totals. ILM/HAT 10-11 inches. RDU 1.3. CLT 0.4. HKY 0.3. GSO 0.4. FAY 1.7. ECG 5.7. MYR 9.5. CHS 7. SAV 5. Wonder if that was a straight 10:1 ratio figuring. I'd think with temps as cold as the Euro projects, the ration would be considerably higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Will be interesting to see if ECMWF ENS mean is still more juicy then op Euro. This is actually pretty typical for these types of events as the GFS is probably too supressed with the GGEM/ECMWF probably more realistic. Thanks for the encouraging info! I enjoy your tweets, but I miss the longer, in-depth discussions from the blogging days of the past winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Wonder if that was a straight 10:1 ratio figuring. I'd think with temps as cold as the Euro projects, the ration would be considerably higher. Even 20:1 (which is really, really high for down here), you'd be looking at like 0.8" for CLT. Coastal areas will be warmer with lower ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Thanks for the encouraging info! I enjoy your tweets, but I miss the longer, in-depth discussions from the blogging days of the past winters. yeah if this pans out, I will post a discussion on here for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 WxBell clown maps have 9.5" on Myrtle Beach, SC and 10" near Oak Island, NC. Coast special indeed. Clown looks reasonable. Great run for the Grand Strand to Wilmington. Around 0.9 liquid with surface and 850mb temps just below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Notice the People's Weenie. Haha! Awesome! Thanks for the responses, guys. Verbatim snow amounts don't look great, but it's fine this far out. And to answer Brick's question, it sounds like this run was better than last night's, though not nearly as good as yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 ALL I have tooo say.. finally... hopefully.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I dont have access to the UKMET precip at hour 96 but the 500mb/PMSL graphic looks pretty good with a low close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Wow, the Ukie looks really good, Allan. I don't know about precip, but that track looks pretty nice. That's a big shift from past runs. EDIT: Oh, and hell yeah, the JMA is onboard with a weenie run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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