TheSnowman Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I remember a friend of mine, Jeff, at NEC telling me at the corner of the Prudential Center and Huntington Ave. 1 entire week before that he heard a huge storm was coming. I hadn't heard of it, and told him to talk about a Big storm 1 week out is nuts. 8 days later I was under 27" of Snow. So yes, some had it figured. I remember the amounts went from 10-20, to 20-30 and then the morning of Saturday went to 2 to 3 Feet which I verified. But not 2-4 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Ah, Middlesex Co is huge... When you get into meso distributions of unfairness, Woburn and Acton can be in different galaxies.You're right. Sometimes there are huge differences within Woburn itself because of its boot shape. North Woburn by the Wilmington line is a whole different world than the weta side by the Winchester line.GFS not a nuke but looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 They didn't only get 6" in this blizzard of 2005. He must be thinking of anaother system. They got "only" about 12-14" at the lowest while surrounding areas got over 20 inches. The lowets total I can find in Middlesex country is 13.5"...but I could see maybe an ionch or two lower if somewhere got really scred ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... MELROSE 36.0 116 PM 1/23 CAMBRIDGE 30.0 258 PM 1/23 WAKEFIELD 28.0 400 PM 1/23 BILLERICA 27.5 917 PM 1/23 NORTH WOBURN 27.5 224 AM 1/24 ST 6 FT DRIFTS BURLINGTON 27.0 850 AM 1/24 SOUTH CHELMSFORD 27.0 114 PM 1/23 EVERETT 26.5 300 PM 1/23 BELMONT 26.0 918 PM 1/23 ST WINCHESTER 25.8 1104 PM 1/23 EAST ARLINGTON 25.0 400 PM 1/23 NORTH BILLERICA 25.0 100 PM 1/23 WILMINGTON 25.0 137 PM 1/23 ST NORTH CHELMSFORD 24.0 440 PM 1/23 WOBURN 24.0 1040 PM 1/23 NATICK 22.0 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP OBSERVER WAYLAND 22.0 340 PM 1/23 WESTFORD 22.0 526 PM 1/23 MAYNARD 21.7 812 AM 1/24 LEXINGTON 21.0 249 PM 1/23 STONEHAM 21.0 123 PM 1/23 CARLISLE 20.8 1113 AM 1/23 AYER 20.3 330 PM 1/23 ST LITTLETON 19.0 241 PM 1/23 CHELMSFORD 18.5 219 PM 1/23 ST DRACUT 18.2 220 PM 1/23 ST DUNSTABLE 18.0 1245 PM 1/23 PEPPERELL 18.0 249 PM 1/23 TOWNSEND 18.0 402 PM 1/23 ST SHIRLEY 14.0 105 PM 1/23 HUDSON 13.5 300 PM 1/23 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/snowrpts/snowstormJan2224-2005 Maybe he is thinking of PDII in Feb 2003? It's possible, Will (you know I have the worst memory when it comes to that sort of thing...). But you are right... 12-14" (if that is what we had) did make that system more standard issue for us. I'm sure I'm thinking of Jan 2005, tho - I'll also add, I think Acton, Hudson, and Maynard all touch one another... Notice Maynard with over 21 and Hudson only 13 and a half. It shows what meso-boning can do. Fine, I was singled out by the gods of weather to get missed a tad there. It happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 00z RGEM clearly has the qpf max on the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 00z RGEM clearly has the qpf max on the south coast. Warm though...it's graphic thingie has rain up to about Quincy during the height and implies even Steve would flip for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Methinks ginxy looked at surface progs and pulled that post pronto...lol. Not sure what to make of this one. Uncles late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Methinks ginxy looked at surface progs and pulled that post pronto...lol. Not sure what to make of this one. Uncles late. moved it to Dec Disco, temps in the 40's for a 12 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 I moved the December pattern disco to the December pattern thread....keep this one focused on Dec 17th clipper threat. We already got OT once with blizzard of '05 talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The GGEM looks great! Too bad it's the GGEM but still a nice look. Hoping the Euro gets a bit juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The GGEM looks great! Too bad it's the GGEM but still a nice look. Hoping the Euro gets a bit juicier.The way it's handled QPF lately is to gradually increse, upgrade?, so if it does get juicier even a little then Mon noon run will be juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I moved the December pattern disco to the December pattern thread....keep this one focused on Dec 17th clipper threat. We already got OT once with blizzard of '05 talk. Dendrite will be happy. R/GGEM introduce temperature issues along the coast. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It has a pretty nice diffluent zone. That along with a nice low level jet at 850 could boost its moisture intake upping those QPF values that you all want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Ugh - Euro is killing me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Ugh - Euro is killing me. How So? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Ugh - Euro is killing me. How crappy is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 How So? It's weak and has 2 waves. The other models fizzle out the 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 How crappy is it? Very crappy. Maybe 1-2 around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Very crappy. Maybe 1-2 around here? Agh. Thanks Ryan. Too bad we couldn't get the s/w to consolidate a bit better. Maybe tomorrow's 12z runs will improve some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Noyes with 3-6 but starting after AM commute..Another disaster with schools Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Do we turn our backs on euro and gfs and pin our hopes in the backs of nam and cmc? Seems fraught with danger...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Lots of Boston TV mets throwing out 3-6" amounts near BOS out to 495 and beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 LOl models everywhere and not the best agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Noyes with 3-6 but starting after AM commute..Another disaster with schools 1-2, final call here to 84; 2-4 south of there, more, 3-5 RI/SE Mass/south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 LOl models everywhere and not the best agreement. I would ordinarily toss the RGEM being so north relative to most of the other models minus the GGEM but I'm wondering if pperhaps because this thing is coming out of data sparse Canada as a clipper if those models may be onto something, there is virtually zero support from the GFS ensemble members though, all 12 agree with the Op and none are remotely near the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 check the sounding and bufkit, Woodford was 18 inches, we know they did not have 1.4 qpf Ehhh, ALB had 1.23" of QPF and that's in a pit of a valley...Wouldn't be hard to imagine Woodford at 2,000ft to ALB's NE getting up to 1.5" out of that. How do you know they didn't get 1.4" of liquid? Up here J.Spin's data was near 12:1 with over 3/4ths of an inch of QPF. Banking on ratios is hard...it does work from time to time, but if that's the reason for the forecast its just another thing that can go wrong, haha. But conservative is no way to forecast or live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Taking a consensus suggests 2-4 is the best forecast and that agrees with most guidance other than the most robust. Still time to ramp it up today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I see some 3-6 amounts on media outlets. Must not be riding the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I see some 3-6 amounts on media outlets. Must not be riding the euro? I thought the euro wasn't that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 BOX map has a general 2-4 with Cape/SC getting lesser amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 ? I thought the euro wasn't that good. That is correct... if it was the Euro then less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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