weathafella Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I like the subtle differences at 500mb between the 00z and 12z Euro runs. Lead wave dampened out just a bit. Also there is slightly better upstream ridging. I'd still play my cards conservative as well. 1-3" with the caveat that if we can see the low develop just a hair earlier and S of LI we cash in. The 2 lows are a dampener so hopefully it doesn't happen that way. GEFS look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I like the subtle differences at 500mb between the 00z and 12z Euro runs. Lead wave dampened out just a bit. Also there is slightly better upstream ridging. I'd still play my cards conservative as well. 1-3" with the caveat that if we can see the low develop just a hair earlier and S of LI we cash in. I think 1-3 is the safe play for a couple of reasons. One surface temps down here, two uncertainty on the waves. There's that tug that you're talking about and that's usually the models not resolving the situation. Hopefully that resets with the 0z tonight. Plenty of time to adjust up or down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Hanny on board @ryanhanrahan: Here we go again... snow breaks out by daybreak Tuesday with a few inches likely! #FirstAlertCT http://t.co/BlA8ikqlvh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Pretty impressive clipper, this is definitely a game where the second stringers can pinch hit a grand slam. I hope to start a game soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Here's Hanny's map: @ryanhanrahan: Here's what we're expecting for Tuesday's snow. Not a big storm but a cold & snowy day on Tuesday. #FirstAlertCT http://t.co/1Ahc0SJYyA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 18z gfs ensm still look pretty good. few misses but majority look pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Just loving looking outside at all the Christmas lights encased in snow and ice. Pretty cool how this month has evolved. 2-4 seems a good bet, EMA, Maine should clean up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 CIPS is in business for this event too....1/17/85 and 12/30/93 are 1 and 2 on the 60 hour panel for the 12Z run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 CIPS is in business for this event too....1/17/85 and 12/30/93 are 1 and 2 on the 60 hour panel for the 12Z run today. Oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 What was 12/30/93 ...boom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 CIPS is in business for this event too....1/17/85 and 12/30/93 are 1 and 2 on the 60 hour panel for the 12Z run today. Oh boy. Our boy is working out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 What was 12/30/93 ...boom? The beginning of the greatest 2 months of winter I have seen this side of 1960/61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 What was 12/30/93 ...boom? 1-3 turned into 10-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 That storm is permanently embedded in my head because of the bust and the reason Jerry stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/29-Dec-93.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 That storm is permanently embedded in my head because of the bust and the reason Jerry stated.Epic EMA positive bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Run of the mill....meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Epic EMA positive bust I was in the car with my parents driving home from Boston. I was jumping out of my skin at this bust. Pure fluff bomb. 12" of dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Here is my map I just made. I like 4-6'' in the area I have highlighted as I really like what models are showing for lift across these areas. The GFS/Euro really have some pretty nice VV's traverse this area and with steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing moisture, I really think there could be a period of heavier snowfall across this area...perhaps almost convective in nature. Higher snowfall ratios will be a plus as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I remember the 1993 event which occurred on a Thursday. The morning was bitter and I did a 5 miler then off to work. During the day temps creeped into the upper 20s with light east winds and I admit to worry. Snow started mid/late afternoon and the evening was epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This is awesome. Build up the pack on top of this rock solid few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Wiz nice map....I'm not ready to go that aggressive but it's not terribly unreasonable if the low develops. Has anyone looked at the JMA? Hey this beats the last several years we have threats every few days for someone to hype and someone to toss a flag. Everybody wins! It could be so much worse we all could be cowboys fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Wiz nice map....I'm not ready to go that aggressive but it's not terribly unreasonable if the low develops. Has anyone looked at the JMA? Hey this beats the last several years we have threats every few days for someone to hype and someone to toss a flag. Everybody wins! It could be so much worse we all could be cowboys fans. Thanks! This seems like a scenario where eastern MA would jackpot, especially if that low can really strengthen early enough which seems quite plausible. If that trough digging in becomes a bit more amplified that what's shown which there is definitely room for, that will further enhance the s/w and also increase moisture. I really liked the VV's being spit out by the GFS/Euro and I like the really steep mid-level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Wiz nice map....I'm not ready to go that aggressive but it's not terribly unreasonable if the low develops. Has anyone looked at the JMA? I'm sure JB has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Thanks! This seems like a scenario where eastern MA would jackpot, especially if that low can really strengthen early enough which seems quite plausible. If that trough digging in becomes a bit more amplified that what's shown which there is definitely room for, that will further enhance the s/w and also increase moisture. I really liked the VV's being spit out by the GFS/Euro and I like the really steep mid-level lapse rates. Thanks for the map, Paul. I don't recall you posted accum maps in the past--good to have your thoughts on these. If I'm able to get in access of 2", I'll consider this a positive bust. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 SREFs toned it back a bit but still decent for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 SREFs toned it back a bit but still decent for a lot of us. S of LI track. QPF much tamer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 0z NAM may be going south again. ??? More like a slower solution. I think maybe we're losing that lead s/w or at least it's delayed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 There is a critical difference between 12/30/93 and this deal for late Tuesday. I mentioned this earlier ... and now the analog provides a perfect example. 12/30/93 has an active baroclinic axis and even zygote cyclone(s) embedded along, extending from the lower Apps to off the lower MA. This can be seen here: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1993/19931227-19940102.djvu The mid level flow tipped more NE off the MA in response to the stressing of the N-stream impulse on the medium as it approached the EC; this drew the axis/cyclone up to where it could be captured by the N-stream and there's your boom. This system for latter Tuesday does not have this pre-existing feature(s) in the SE, prior to the N-stream amplitude passing near-by. I mentioned earlier that the baroclinicity has been swept seaward by last night's event... Whatever transpires Tuesday will be entirely N-stream. Keep in mind, best analog does not mean "good" analog. The only similarity I really see there is the orientation of the N-stream. But ... it doesn't say much as to the speed of the flow, respectively. I suspect the Tuesday is more energetic than the 1993 event, because it is negatively tilted as it torques the atm into a pre-wave break. If you look at the link above, that trough back when was neutrally oriented. Just some notes... John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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