Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 looked to me like the GGEM was across SNE Yeah, sucker holes me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Yeah looks like S coast to SE MA yeah that's what i thought i saw. ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 12z GFS Ensm are not too bad either. Only looks like 2 members is a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 You gonna root for no snow and donut holes for areas? root for no snow? don't think i've ever done that. donut holes over KTOL? yeah probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 root for no snow? don't think i've ever done that. donut holes over KTOL? yeah probably. How come you don't want us to get snow? I don't understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 12z GFS Ensm are not too bad either. Only looks like 2 members is a miss. yeah that's pretty much the evolution E/SE folks need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 How come you don't want us to get snow? I don't understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Sorry you don't have any. Hope you get some Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 The CMC look great for SNE. With cold mid-levels I suspect there could be intersection of good lift with the max snow growth zone too. I suspect this could get even tighter. H5 is a bit convoluted on the CMC (and to an extent on other guidance) with multiple areas of s/w vorticity. If that consolidates there probably could be a slower progression of the slp and a little more wraparound at 500mb - 800mb or so. But the same factors probably mean this could just as easily trend worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 So we have gfs furthest to the south and cmc furthest north. Everyone north of the low is getting good snows so lets keep this over the water nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 yeah that's pretty much the evolution E/SE folks need Cool. Right now, guidance has cooled. The GFS has 2m temps in the low 20s right now. NAM is substantially warmer, gets me up to freezing and the Euro is in between. A lot of that is precip and intensity driven. If we can get this thing to develop more S of us, I would feel confident on an advisory level snowfall, 2-4". If not, than we are left with -sn/ra that does not accumulate. See what the Euro shows very shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 12z GFS Ensm are not too bad either. Only looks like 2 members is a miss. Yeah I told the NYC thread just now that 2 members were very flat, 2 were south of the Op, 1 was north and 7 were dead matches at 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I'd be excited if I were east of 91. Need some early development in order for things to shape up for GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Hopefully the euro ramped up too. Encouraged to see the gefs solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Fresh cold coming in ahead of the system again. That certainly helped many over achieve the system this weekend. You won't have to worry about 50s and a low up low through SE MA from the southern stream this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Yeah I told the NYC thread just now that 2 members were very flat, 2 were south of the Op, 1 was north and 7 were dead matches at 48 hours I hate the E-wall images for Ensm, thanks for backing my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Euros going to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 This system is timed perfectly to alleviate post-partem fall of storm withdrawal ... 4 pages almost at the moment the snow stops falling - classic! haha oh man. We're in a nickle-dime pattern. Last night was dime, maybe we get a nickle. fyi - we take 'em one at a time, but if anyone wants to start a thread for bigger xmass system, it's pretty well signaled in the tele's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 if the euro is going to do this...it's going to be a different method than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 FWIW. NCEP Model Discussion from this AM ...SHORTWAVE SPURRING CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT/WED... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 06Z GFS WITH 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THE PREFERENCE HERE WAS A LITTLE SIMPLER ON THE 00Z CYCLE. SINCE THEN THE NAM AND GFS HAVE TRENDED FASTER. THE NAM IS SO MUCH FASTER THAT IT CAN ALMOST BE TOSSED AS AN OUTLIER. BUT SINCE THE GFS IS ALSO SHOWING THIS TREND IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY IGNORED. THEREFORE...WENT WITH AN INITIAL PREFERENCE TOWARD SOLUTIONS THAT ARE A LITTLE FASTER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD RELATIVE TO THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. WE ALSO NOTE THAT THE 06Z GFS WAS NICELY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE 06Z GEFS MEAN WHICH LOOKS TO BE A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND. HOPEFULLY THE TRENDS WILL BE BETTER APPARENT WHEN THE FULL 12Z SUITE IS AVAILABLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Maybe focus on second Vort? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Euros nice..perfect actually. Ignore the qpf output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 Euro looks like it has shortwave interference and we end up with only a light event of an inch or 2. Still, thats a ton of vorticity going south and that shortwave is pretty sharp so it still has some decent potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 yes on the V-max track please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 verbatim, clips e areas...but that has a lot of potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 yes on the V-max track please Looking at H5, you'd expect it be printing out more. But I think the boundary layer baroclinic zone gets a bit shot from that front running wave...kind of wierd. Its what the GFS was doing yesterday. We either want the fronti running wave to be the dominant one or not exist at all IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Looking at H5, you'd expect it be printing out more. But I think the boundary layer baroclinic zone gets a bit shot from that front running wave...kind of wierd. Its what the GFS was doing yesterday. We either want the fronti running wave to be the dominant one or not exist at all IMHO. yeah the GFS actually runs with the front one...the euro sort of takes that first piece of energy north and then tries with the second area of pva i'd still take my chances with that kind of energy running out S of SNE like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 euro is probably advisory type snows for the cape, maybe some other areas too. a bit more, and that's a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 High end advisory on gfs/nam, warning on ukmet/cmc, middling advisory on euro. All agree on a ton of potential. Gfs wants to do the same thing d7 fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 yeah, i agree -- it's always dicey when you plow that much dpva S of our latitude. Euro being inside of 4 days is usually pretty good with details, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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