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December 17th Clipper Discussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Yup the appendage. I'd be happy with 3-6, so long it doesn't completely skunk us (w / the potential at hand)

 

To me...when we see this stuff on the models it usually means they're stuck between signals.  IE, they can't figure out which s/w to focus on and when to develop the low.  Probably 2/3 of the time we see future changes in a positive light in the sense that we end up with a more classic track off Jersey that develops etc or a more dominant but slightly later system.  The rest of the time it goes to pieces as there's wave interference - a flat first wave and not much of anything behind it and it all gets going way too late.

 

Kind of like when we see those inverted trough structures at 4-5 days that turn into a low that passes more closely to the coast.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Whatever happened to the NAM sucks ... don't even bother looking at it ... the model is useless  

 

:lol:

 

It is interesting how, other than some minor details, it has been essentially locked on this idea of usurping the entire Alaskan vortex down stream into the OV for ...  what, 10 cycles now? Actually, the GFS has had it, as have the others, it's just that the NAM has been the bigger cheerleader.  

 

It's too bad the flow is so fast and there is no blocking because if this wave were to break even 6 hours sooner ... as is, .6" melt equiv total along the Pike in a snow column is a nice nickle event to keep the enthusiasts off the Prozac 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Love these events where you get done shoveling out and have to immediately run to the store to get bread and milk.

 

Heavy, heavy coffee.

 

0.25" runs from about BGR-CON-BAF-HPN.

 

Yup---as I thought.  A gift for easterners, meh up here.

 

Whatever happened to the NAM sucks ... don't even bother looking at it ... the model is useless  

 

:lol:

 

It is interesting how, other than some minor details, it has been essentially locked on this idea of usurping the entire Alaskan vortex down stream into the OV for ...  what, 10 cycles now? Actually, the GFS has had it, as have the others, it's just that the NAM has been the bigger cheerleader.  

 

It's too bad the flow is so fast and there is no blocking because if this wave were to break even 6 hours sooner ... as is, .6" melt equiv total along the Pike in a snow column is a nice nickle event to keep the enthusiasts off the Prozac 

 

Messenger throws it out every time--good or bad.  Note his crackerjack comments.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Whatever happened to the NAM sucks ... don't even bother looking at it ... the model is useless  

 

:lol:

 

It is interesting how, other than some minor details, it has been essentially locked on this idea of usurping the entire Alaskan vortex down stream into the OV for ...  what, 10 cycles now? Actually, the GFS has had it, as have the others, it's just that the NAM has been the bigger cheerleader.  

 

It's too bad the flow is so fast and there is no blocking because if this wave were to break even 6 hours sooner ... as is, .6" melt equiv total along the Pike in a snow column is a nice nickle event to keep the enthusiasts off the Prozac 

haha...nothing! it blows. i really wish it were a better model because its resolution warrants respect...but the model as a whole is just blah. as I'm sure you do, i like it for CAD (which is somewhat irrelevant for MBY) and backdoor frontal boundaries. otherwise...POS. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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haha...nothing! it blows. i really wish it were a better model because its resolution warrants respect...but the model as a whole is just blah. as I'm sure you do, i like it for CAD (which is somewhat irrelevant for MBY) and backdoor frontal boundaries. otherwise...POS. 

 

Right?! I can produce some really great model fields on my screen, but most of the time it's just the wrong solution.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

haha...nothing! it blows. i really wish it were a better model because its resolution warrants respect...but the model as a whole is just blah. as I'm sure you do, i like it for CAD (which is somewhat irrelevant for MBY) and backdoor frontal boundaries. otherwise...POS. 

 

Even NCEP puts a caveat emptor on using the NAM save for some specifics, and I agree as well.  I would also add convective initiation during the warm season (completely irrelevant now).

 

I think it was the ETA still back in 2005?   Not sure if that makes any difference, as I am less up in the know as to what changes have gone into the model over the last 7 years, but it nailed both the January event, then the one later in the year during December.  I don't recall it "nailing" substantially a better performance than the other guidance's since those two back when - but maybe I'm wrong.  

 

Bottom line, over the long haul it has a history of throwing errant solutions at one just when they are least prepared, gauging determinism with a helluva of a melon-baller.  I think though, it gets a passing grade for last night's gig.  Might have been dumb luck that it's NW bias played into a progressive situation with no blocking -- hell, maybe this is one of those particular patterns where it can find its way.

 

By the way folks, this is entirely a N-stream, dynamically charged system.  It really arrives with weak baroclinicity, which has been escaped seaward by last night's system. But because it has the torsional power of about 10 trillion megatons of tnt in those jet cores, it over-comes and puts out some winter tasties.   I would love to see this thing dig just 2 degrees latitude prior to hitting the longitude of ALB; that would probably be enough to bring a New Jersey model hammer.  Been while since a clipper performed as such.  

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

BOX - Sun eve disco

 

TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE INVIGORATES SFC LOW PRES AND STRONG PRESSURE FALLS
WITHIN THE BETTER BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. AMPLIFICATION OF A SW-NE LLJ CONTRIBUTES TO
A PRONOUNCED INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE NOSE OF WHICH
STRONG F-GEN AND ISENTROPIC FORCING RESULTS IN STRONG ASCENT WITHIN
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS UPWARD THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
ONCE AGAIN...MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE N/NE QUADRANT
OF THE LOW. COLD-AIR DRAINAGE PREVAILS THROUGH THE INTERIOR DUE TO
ISALLOBARIC AND AGEOSTROPHIC COMPONENTS OF FLOW. LOOKING AT ANOTHER
COASTAL-FRONT SETUP WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXING ALONG THE SHORES.
SUBTLE HINTS OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TO THE REAR.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK...TIMING...AND STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW. THIS IS APPARENT PER FORECAST QPF/SNOWFALL OUTPUT.
EVALUATING 15.12Z SREF MEANS...ANOMALOUS SIGNAL GROWING. HIGH PROBS
+1-INCH OF SNOW...AND GROWING PROBS /COMPARED TO THE 15.09Z SREF
PREDECESSOR/ OF +4/+8/+12 SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH QPF AMOUNTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 0.35. THOUGH WHILE THERE IS
POTENTIAL...THE SYSTEM IS A LATE DEVELOPER /KEYING ON WHEN THERE IS
A CLOSED LOW AT H85 WHICH MAY OCCUR MORE IN THE MARITIMES/ AND NOT
ALL GLOBAL MODELS SIGNAL AN EARLY INTENSIFICATION.

 

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