HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 It really isn't that easy. If it sharpens and develops soon, it's easy. But indications are that it won't develop soon enough. Things can change of course, but that's my read on it now.I would go low on this. But weenies crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Not sure why people are doubting this one. One more good model run and it's time to raise the flags Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Not sure why people are doubting this one. One more good model run and it's time to raise the flags Well...geography plays a part I think. *if* this even happens, I'd say odds favor eastern areas and points NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Well...geography plays a part I think. *if* this even happens, I'd say odds favor eastern areas and points NE Think it's cold enough here ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Think it's cold enough here ? well...really depends on how it evolves. the more intense scenarios would become cold enough when it mattered. the solutions with a relatively weak low near SNE...it would just be light rain showers here i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 If the GFS right, widespread 6"+ incoming. This has been getting significantly sharper run after run for several runs now. If this holds or trends better, probably looking at a widespread moderate snowfall, with possible heavy snow for eastern areas. Could be a near capture of the surface low... and slowing of its northeastward progress. Definitely some wraparound potential with midlevel lows popping pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Nam shows a nice 3-6" snow for SNE 2 runs in a row now.. Only thing I see is surface temps may be too warm if the low passes over us, would like to see it a bit farther south for the coast to accumulate.. if this pans out, many places will be around 20" for December snow with 2 weeks left in the month and an active pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 The 12z NAM is wet everywhere. 500mb still not as impressive as the GFS... it has been comparatively inconsistent in its trending. Neverthess, the NAM has been trending better and would be a plowable snowfall for all of SNE, possibly excluding the s coast. The NAM supports the 6" potential somewhere, likely the east end... but that could expand much further west if everything comes together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Definitely like the look of this right now...but these events can be a bit tricky and jump around in the guidance a bit. I'd say 1-3" is the safe call right now...and we can go up if needed if modeling continues to look favorable today/tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 handful of the 6z ens members somewhat support the op. so that's a plus. we'll really need this to dig and slow everything down and get the slp to intensify south of us instead of east of us. right now, i feel like congrats acadia national park. but let's see what everything does today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Fwiw...yesterday evenings runs were a bit toasty for the coast...but 6z NAM/GFS were all snow...at least back this way. Didnt look at SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 considering the time frame, srefs are fairly robust on 4" + from ORH county to NE MA then up into coastal NH/ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Fwiw...yesterday evenings runs were a bit toasty for the coast...but 6z NAM/GFS were all snow...at least back this way. Didnt look at SE MA. yeah if the low is running the CT coast...to CHH...it's raining most likely along the shore. even with relatively low thickness values the S flow off of the water would kill the bottom 1000' of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Not sure why people are doubting this one. One more good model run and it's time to raise the flags 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 yeah if the low is running the CT coast...to CHH...it's raining most likely along the shore. even with relatively low thickness values the S flow off of the water would kill the bottom 1000' of the atmosphere. Boy it is super cold just north - Look at the NAM 2M temps. That's a pretty neat looking event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I like the look of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Boy it is super cold just north - Look at the NAM 2M temps. That's a pretty neat looking event. yeah i was just looking at that. huge gradient. verbatim, you'd probably get an intense narrow band of heavy snow i think just aways back from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I think this has room to dig a little more south. That is a lot of vorticity modeled at the current time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 My favorite type of system. Explosively potent. Now I just need it south a little. I'd love it if this was our winter. Give me rapid fire events every few days vs once every two weeks and blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 As has been stated, the lower levels are cooked for a lot of E areas so we need this to develop further S and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I think this has room to dig a little more south. That is a lot of vorticity modeled at the current time. yeah. seems like it's trended back toward the way it looked several days ago (when it was flagged as a period to watch). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 It's also cold aloft guys and the winds as modeled are not 35kts from the east. Almost has an instability look. That may help borderline areas. Obviously that can change but just my 2 pennies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 a lot of frigid temps between 10 above and 10 below before the clouds move in late Monday night into Tuesday morning.. what a great airmass for it to snow into Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I think some people might like the RGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 hmmm...liking where the GFS is going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Lil nukey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 it's a hair too progressive...but that's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 The lift over ern and SE areas was intense at hr 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 can see the kink west in the pressure fields as the 2nd lobe of vorticity comes down into the trough and tries to tug it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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