September Nor'Easter Obvs Thread

[Bostonseminole]

Flood watch up


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[kdxken]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Had to have been 50 ripper just now . Whoa 

Get on the horn. He didn't include your observation.

[TalcottWx]

2 hours ago, wx_observer said:

Pretty robust looking storm, despite all the underwhelmed dumb azzes...

 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I'm curious what people would like us to do.

For example, look at the call to action on the NWS coastal flood warnings and high wind warnings. Probably more "panicky" than anything a met said on air. 

Our forecast will turn out to be pretty much perfect in terms of wind gusts, impacts (scattered outages), and coastal flooding (minor to barely moderate). 

I don't see this storm or have not seen this storm hyped by any local meteorologists out there. The key points of storm impacts were illustrated and highlighted well. How people decide to respond and actions taken is on them. 

In fact, I think you could even argue what measure people are taken is not in fact a bad thing but a mere positive. It illustrates increased awareness from the public, a greater trust from the public in forecasts, and people's ability to manage around inclement weather. I don't really see anything wrong with stores being "flooded" with people before a storm. I mean, in this day in age, who has the means to keep a fully stocked fridge and freezer? People are probably getting food and supplies "as needed". 

[CT Rain]

4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I'm certainly not a Met but the satellite view right now  doesn't look like a typical cold core system.  Deep convection trying to fire near the center.  Seems hybrid to me??

Becoming more of a warm seclusion. 

Has definitely had fronts for its life so far and is getting most of its energy through synoptic scale forcing with the digging trough.

Not really a hybrid/subtropical storm but definitely a warm seclusion.

[TalcottWx]

Since Tuesday, the main show inland was overnight tonight. 

It's almost like some of us either struggle from reading comprehension 

[Great Snow 1717]

8 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

On a grade of 1 - 10, I would rate it a 7 so far. 20k without power in CT, 4k in MA, and 1k in RI doesn’t make this storm ordinary by any measure, but it’s also not the most severe we have had.

Another 18 hours before it passes west and occludes so let’s make a final judgment tomorrow or Monday.

Some areas definitely feeling it much worse than others.

On a scale of 1-10...it has been a 0 here..

[TalcottWx]

14 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I'm curious what people would like us to do.

For example, look at the call to action on the NWS coastal flood warnings and high wind warnings. Probably more "panicky" than anything a met said on air. 

Our forecast will turn out to be pretty much perfect in terms of wind gusts, impacts (scattered outages), and coastal flooding (minor to barely moderate). 

This. 

[Bostonseminole]

This board never changes lol


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[bristolri_wx]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

On a scale of 1-10...it has been a 0 here..

I guess you are in a boring spot of this one. I’ve been getting 30-40 mph gusts for the last 24 hours here, which means it will be 60 hours total of gusts in this category before they subside. Rain has been meh.

[FXWX]

17 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I'm curious what people would like us to do.

For example, look at the call to action on the NWS coastal flood warnings and high wind warnings. Probably more "panicky" than anything a met said on air. 

Our forecast will turn out to be pretty much perfect in terms of wind gusts, impacts (scattered outages), and coastal flooding (minor to barely moderate). 

Like 99% of social media folks they just love to bitch and moan with little or no basis, other than they would always do everything better than everyone else!  You were spot on, as were most of the forecasts...

[SJonesWX]

Very little wind and less than 0.1” rain.  staying safe

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Thanks definitely looks at least more subtropical on satellite. Pretty well defined center now.

Ryan covers it, but I'll just add that the little burst of convection right at the center is interesting. This is a pretty good system with a good bit of thunderstorm activity over CT today. It'd be cool go get convection that could wrap around the center but that might be asking too much. 

 

 

[DomNH]

I know this isn’t going to be that exciting inland but the mehing at 17z Saturday is kind of funny. Overnight and into tomorrow AM was always going to be the worst of it up this way. 

[kdxken]

Just now, DomNH said:

I know this isn’t going to be that exciting inland but the mehing at 17z Saturday is kind of funny. Overnight and into tomorrow AM was always going to be the worst of it up this way. 

I like a good bust as well as the next guy. But the amount of football spiking is over the top. Just beginning . The national weather service isn't backing down.

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't even observe much of a digging trough... 

This was weakly fed really.   The heights just cored out from internal processes more so - though 'some 'thing of a trigger aided.  But it seemed to go disproportionately deeper relative to what it started out with, after the fact, giving it an allusion of some spontaneity to it.  I suggested the other day there's a transitive/non-linear forcing coming from the large scale - by definition ..that's not always exposed to convention observation techniques.  Think 'rogue wave' phenomenon as an analogy.    

Anyway, it may be too early to claim failure on coverage.  The guidance blend really has this maximizing tonight, with 988 -ish mb low approaching from the S; with 1030mb high pivoting E over top while that happens... likely lays in a pretty significant llv jet axis and given that low gets to ISP it's probably going to be pretty nasty over E CT/RI/E Mass per the course.  

[Modfan2]

Too bad this was wasn’t during winter; nice feeder band set up from E Mass into CT

[tavwtby]

42 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I'm certainly not a Met but the satellite view right now  doesn't look like a typical cold core system.  Deep convection trying to fire near the center.  Seems hybrid to me??

beautiful sight 

[weatherwiz]

16z HRRR is widespread 40-50+ knots at 950mb from eastern MA back through much of CT overnight and 55 knots towards the coast

[ineedsnow]

Just got home.. winds are ripping.. i saw a tree down that took out some wires.. templeton light and power were there @Damage In Tolland would be excited 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

16z HRRR is widespread 40-50+ knots at 950mb from eastern MA back through much of CT overnight and 55 knots towards the coast

what are the sounding/profiles like compared to the near coastal SSTs 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

16z HRRR is widespread 40-50+ knots at 950mb from eastern MA back through much of CT overnight and 55 knots towards the coast

Infrastructure gone 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Infrastructure gone 

Gotta be able to mix it down from 950mb…if we can’t then it’s nothing to exciting.  

[Hoth]

15 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Too bad this was wasn’t during winter; nice feeder band set up from E Mass into CT

The BOX radar presentation is pretty cool. In the absence of any other storm information, I would think there was a 'cane off shore just by looking at the radar.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

what are the sounding/profiles like compared to the near coastal SSTs 

There's def a subtle inversion but one thing of note is the BL isn't fully saturated - there is enough Td - T separation that we probably could mix that down. Have to watch temp and dew point trends through the evening. Also have to watch for convection - have a few hundred J of MUCAPE which is probably helping with those isolated embedded thunderstorms in CT

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Gotta be able to mix it down from 950mb…if we can’t then it’s nothing to exciting.  

One thing to keep in mind too is as the surface pressure lowers as the storm continues to deepen and push north, 950mb isn't going to be particularly far from the surface...so much less vertical distance needed to reach and mix. Any inversion may end up being minute anyways, in fact, may not even be much of a negator. We're seeing good gusts 30-50 mph which really isn't anything different from what's just above the deck. 

[weatherwiz]

HWW for CT shoreline  

[Torch Tiger]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

HWW for CT shoreline  

Any shot at a spinner down there? 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Any shot at a spinner down there? 

There's a giant spinner south of Long Island 

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

One thing to keep in mind too is as the surface pressure lowers as the storm continues to deepen and push north, 950mb isn't going to be particularly far from the surface...so much less vertical distance needed to reach and mix. Any inversion may end up being minute anyways, in fact, may not even be much of a negator. We're seeing good gusts 30-50 mph which really isn't anything different from what's just above the deck. 

Ditty and ORH are at 975mb already