September Nor'Easter Obvs Thread

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

One of the more impressive looking daytime wind/rainstorms I can remember around here. Leaves on the trees helps a lot!

Be careful you may be accused of hyping. Just five decades ago this was just a little rain shower! 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Early in the season too. Pretty good storm in late September.

Let’s keep this going through March. With Arctic highs of course.

[Snowedin]

Dumpage right now..it must be a hell of a sight down in places like Brant rock, scituate, revere and the usual spots with waves crashing against the shore. I think we’ll see a few good boulders, maybe even the odd old scooner or two washed up when things begin to settle down late sun!

[Snowcrazed71]

20 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

if only this was a couple months later... let's hope we can get a monster or two this winter, with the ENSO placement further west than normal, it's going to be hard for models to get a handle on what happens, and the AK low, NAO, polar vortex split etc, we could end up with a rat or something special, I'm on the fence. I'd like a mild winter winter cold storms, heating bill gon suck if it's cold like last couple seasons...

From everything that I am hearing about the super El Nino, it's not likely at all that we're going to have a very cold winter. The likelihood is milder than normal, but that doesn't mean we'll just have rain, even if we're a few degrees warmer than the average temps. We can still have big snow storms if everything is timed well. So hard to know. I think that's what keeps. All of us coming back is the unknown and the hope of what we'll see. At least we're heading in the right direction as far as seasons go for all of us snow lovers

[CT Rain]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Early in the season too. Pretty good storm in late September.

Yeah in November the trees would barely be swaying. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Be careful you may be accused of hyping. Just five decades ago this was just a little rain shower! 

To be serious though the storm has gone exactly as I expected so far.  Great forecast by all besides the usual outlets that hype too much. 

[CT Rain]

 

[Chrisrotary12]

As expected, absolute yawner here. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

 

No idea what that actually means but it looks cool . I believe those just mean windy for late September? 

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

To be serious though the storm has gone exactly as I expected so far.  Great forecast by all besides the usual outlets that hype too much. 

Yeah. Never believed hooking into Cape May.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

No idea what that means but it looks cool 

It's pretty cool. Basically how many of the ensemble members are in the 90th percentile of MClimate... and then how far are those beyond the 99th percentile. The shaded area is the confidence in an extreme event and then the black lines are basically how extreme the extreme is. 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

 

A step or two below 1938

[CT Rain]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A step or two below 1938

You never disappoint!

[NeonPeon]

I took a ride around Ocean drive and it was definitely a stormy look, but nothing special. About to get into the meat of this thing again. 

[CT Rain]

If the Euro is right with the evolution of the LLJ we should see a notable uptick in winds across LI/CT between now and 8p. Worth watching that. 

[Modfan2]

What’s with the subby hole W of 84? 

[CT Rain]

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

If the Euro is right with the evolution of the LLJ we should see a notable uptick in winds across LI/CT between now and 8p. Worth watching that. 

KJFK 262151Z 02026G48KT 10SM -RA OVC023 16/12 A2971 RMK AO2 PK WND 01048/2145 SLP061 P0000 T01560122 $ 

 

Not bad

[Amped]

33 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah. Never believed hooking into Cape May.

It got a lot closer than I thought. Looks like it will landfall just north of Atlantic city.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

32 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

You never disappoint!

We do what we can 

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

KJFK 262151Z 02026G48KT 10SM -RA OVC023 16/12 A2971 RMK AO2 PK WND 01048/2145 SLP061 P0000 T01560122 $ 

 

Not bad

Definitely starting now . Big rips 

[ineedsnow]

Damn good forecast by the Euro AI 6 days out 

[kdxken]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Damn good forecast by the Euro AI 6 days out 

I was just thinking the same thing. National weather service also did a nice job. Still need to pick up four or five more inches of rain but it looks very doable at this point.

[kdxken]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Definitely starting now . Big rips 

Why don't you ever post actual readings from your weather station?? 

[weatherwiz]

41 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

If the Euro is right with the evolution of the LLJ we should see a notable uptick in winds across LI/CT between now and 8p. Worth watching that. 

50 knots showing up at 925

[CTWeatherFreak]

13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Damn good forecast by the Euro AI 6 days out 

Yup. On the other hand, GFS was completely schooled by Euro. It was the last, or close to it, to come on board to the actual solution.   

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Yup. On the other hand, GFS was completely schooled by Euro. It was the last, or close to it, to come on board to the actual solution.   

The GFS is virtually unusable 

[wxeyeNH]

While you all get the action down there the weather is interesting here.  After some gusty breezes mid day and one light rain band the wind is basically calm.  Why?  My Davis anemometer is at 10 meters without any trees nearby.  Here is the Davis graph.  

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The GFS is virtually unusable 

But yet the next coastal…everybody will say that it shows a miss, so it must be on to something…

[CoastalWx]

It’s freaking roaring at home. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

But yet the next coastal…everybody will say that it shows a miss, so it must be on to something…

or in 3 months it will be the only one showing a blizzard and say it must be onto something