July Discobs 2026

[Eskimo Joe]

8 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Man I should write to my VA state house rep to ask if they could ever make a program like this for my state. 

You should! Virginia Tech does have a small assemblance of a meaonet, but you have a much bigger state, so they could always use the public's support. You can DM and/or @wxmeddler for some ideas or talking points if you wish.

[WxUSAF]

10 hours ago, high risk said:

Some signal in guidance for a few late night / early morning cells, with higher chances to the east. 

East wins

[high risk]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

East wins

And south and north too.

[CAPE]

And only east if you are north or south This looks very familiar.

[GramaxRefugee]

On 7/8/2026 at 6:39 AM, dailylurker said:

Still nothing lol. Today looks like another dry day. Maybe tomorrow I'll get something. Early next week looks great. Manageable temps and humidity along with some sunshine. Might as well get some nice weather since it's not going to rain.

Managed to get another 0.07 bringing July total to about 0.23". Many rain days, but little rain.

[kgottwald]

I certainly don't care for a solid week in midsummer with maybe one hour of sun per day if you're lucky.

And the humidity needs to start decreasing!

[nw baltimore wx]

Today feels like a kind of day where someone’s going to see a lot of rain.

[dailylurker]

22 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Today feels like a kind of day where someone’s going to see a lot of rain.

You spelled Glen Burnie wrong lol. 

[frd]

Pretty good rainfall here. 

Mount Holly's  forecast already verified in terms of rainfall totals. 1.33 from the slow moving morning storms, however, the highest probs were later in the day.  Many folks were suprised by the heavy rains.   

[BlizzardNole]

I hope these meaningless sprinkles and overcast don't ruin our chances for showers later.

Cloudy and 77/74

[Mrs.J]

17 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Hey Frederick County folks (especially @Mrs.J), we got another mesonet station online in Frederick County at the community college!

https://mesonet.umd.edu/station?stid=MDMSNT-45

 Awesome! Thanks for letting me know. Will bookmark it now. 

[aldie 22]

It is soupy af out...thick

[BlizzardNole]

Alright just like that the cloud deck is breaking up.  C'mon stir up that moisture!

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Today feels like a kind of day where someone’s going to see a lot of rain.

Hopefully it's us, i love when things are moist. 

[ravensrule]

5 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

It is soupy af out...thick

I thought you like it thick?

[yoda]

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0652&yr=2026

 

 

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0652
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1215 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Areas affected...Central Appalachians through the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091613Z - 092200Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will rapidly increase in
coverage this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic. Rainfall rates of
2-3"/hr are likely at times, leading to 2-4" of rain with locally
higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E Experimental Day-Cloud Phase RGB this
morning features rapidly expanding coverage of Cu/TCu reflected by
glaciation development within deeper cloud structures. This is
occurring primarily within cloud breaks in the visible satellite
imagery, and is leading to a quick uptick of elevated reflectivity
with showers and thunderstorms spreading from eastern KY through
southern PA.

Forcing for ascent is steadily intensifying across the
Mid-Atlantic, leading to a concurrent increase in the flash flood
risk. A shortwave noted in WV imagery is lifting E/NE out of KY,
working in tandem with the RRQ of a modest jet streak aloft to
produce synoptic ascent. At the same time, modest 850mb inflow of
10-15 kts (locally accelerated in the vicinity of the northeast
advancing shortwave) is isentropically ascending a stationary
front to produce additional lift. Together, this overlapped ascent
is acting upon robust thermodynamics reflected by PWs measured via
the 12Z soundings that are above previous daily records (2.17" at
IAD) and a ribbon of MLCAPE already reaching 1000+ J/kg (2000 J/kg
within clearing sky conditions). Despite convection being fresh,
MRMS hourly rainfall has been above 1 inch in some areas,
indicative of the impressive environment in place.

Convection should continue to rapidly expand and intensify during
the next few hours as the shortwave lifts northeast. The high-res
CAMs, although a bit slow to develop the ongoing activity, are in
good agreement that thunderstorms will develop along any
boundaries (terrain, differential heating, outflows) and become
numerous with at least modest organization into clusters likely
through bulk shear of 25-35 kts. This will intensify rain rates
even further, and both the HREF and REFS depict a 30-40% chance of
at least 2"/hr rates this aftn, with short-term rates of 3-4"/hr
possible as reflected by the sub-hourly HRRR. The regional
soundings and forecast 0-6km mean winds suggest storms will
generally move steadily E/NE, but short-term training is likely as
Corfidi vectors align parallel to the mean flow and storms
repeatedly develop back into the higher instability.

This region is naturally vulnerable to intense rain rates both due
to sensitive terrain as well as urban areas. Additionally, 7-day
rainfall that has been 400% of normal has led to 0-10cm RSM of
60-70% according to NASA SPoRT. This suggests the region has
become even more compromised, so any repeating of these intense
rain rates could cause flash flood impacts through the aftn.


Weiss

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   41047622 41027511 40827395 40157384 39237458
            38517578 38137745 38007867 38058006 38488095
            39088145 39828135 40408045 40867806

[RickinBaltimore]

Sun and some blue sky coming through here at Coppin at the moment

[kgottwald]

Still overcast in Fairfax City. DPs are back up into the ridiculous range.

[WEATHER53]

11 minutes ago, yoda said:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0652&yr=2026

 

 

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0652
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1215 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Areas affected...Central Appalachians through the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091613Z - 092200Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will rapidly increase in
coverage this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic. Rainfall rates of
2-3"/hr are likely at times, leading to 2-4" of rain with locally
higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E Experimental Day-Cloud Phase RGB this
morning features rapidly expanding coverage of Cu/TCu reflected by
glaciation development within deeper cloud structures. This is
occurring primarily within cloud breaks in the visible satellite
imagery, and is leading to a quick uptick of elevated reflectivity
with showers and thunderstorms spreading from eastern KY through
southern PA.

Forcing for ascent is steadily intensifying across the
Mid-Atlantic, leading to a concurrent increase in the flash flood
risk. A shortwave noted in WV imagery is lifting E/NE out of KY,
working in tandem with the RRQ of a modest jet streak aloft to
produce synoptic ascent. At the same time, modest 850mb inflow of
10-15 kts (locally accelerated in the vicinity of the northeast
advancing shortwave) is isentropically ascending a stationary
front to produce additional lift. Together, this overlapped ascent
is acting upon robust thermodynamics reflected by PWs measured via
the 12Z soundings that are above previous daily records (2.17" at
IAD) and a ribbon of MLCAPE already reaching 1000+ J/kg (2000 J/kg
within clearing sky conditions). Despite convection being fresh,
MRMS hourly rainfall has been above 1 inch in some areas,
indicative of the impressive environment in place.

Convection should continue to rapidly expand and intensify during
the next few hours as the shortwave lifts northeast. The high-res
CAMs, although a bit slow to develop the ongoing activity, are in
good agreement that thunderstorms will develop along any
boundaries (terrain, differential heating, outflows) and become
numerous with at least modest organization into clusters likely
through bulk shear of 25-35 kts. This will intensify rain rates
even further, and both the HREF and REFS depict a 30-40% chance of
at least 2"/hr rates this aftn, with short-term rates of 3-4"/hr
possible as reflected by the sub-hourly HRRR. The regional
soundings and forecast 0-6km mean winds suggest storms will
generally move steadily E/NE, but short-term training is likely as
Corfidi vectors align parallel to the mean flow and storms
repeatedly develop back into the higher instability.

This region is naturally vulnerable to intense rain rates both due
to sensitive terrain as well as urban areas. Additionally, 7-day
rainfall that has been 400% of normal has led to 0-10cm RSM of
60-70% according to NASA SPoRT. This suggests the region has
become even more compromised, so any repeating of these intense
rain rates could cause flash flood impacts through the aftn.


Weiss

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   41047622 41027511 40827395 40157384 39237458
            38517578 38137745 38007867 38058006 38488095
            39088145 39828135 40408045 40867806

This is very detailed and seems emphatic that extremely heavy rain will occur.

what I’m probably uneducated about is this recent spate of flood watches . I always  thought we were “watching” for an enhanced  probability, but not certainty, of heavy rain for the forecast area included in the watch.  
Seems  like the feedback I got lately is if a 4 mile by 4 mile area gets flooding rain then the watch for a much much larger area was confirmed? 

 

 

 

[AnEndlessMaze]

Storming good here again.

[EastCoast NPZ]

As the heat builds out here in Montana, I thought that I'd check in on how things were going back home.  I see not a damn thing has changed.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Pretty good rainfall here. 

Mount Holly's  forecast already verified in terms of rainfall totals. 1.33 from the slow moving morning storms, however, the highest probs were later in the day.  Many folks were suprised by the heavy rains.   

Need a turning of the worm here

[aldie 22]

Just missed some heavy rain by feet...still managed to pick up 0.11 by accident 

[MDphotog]

At work in downtown Frederick, we had a big storm that already dumped, looks like over an inch going by a couple of weather stations close by.  Might be getting another batch here soon.

 

[wxmeddler]

Baseline SVR T-Storm for Northern Loudoun / Southern Frederick

Edit: FFW for southern Frederick suburbs now.

[wxmeddler]

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 091805Z - 092000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts are possible as convection continues to intensify and move eastward this afternoon. A watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Convection along a stationary boundary has shown modest intensification over the last hour near the MD/PA border. Additional convection is developing along the Blue Ridge. Sufficiently strong westerly winds across the Ridge will eventually move convection to the east. Furthermore, around 30 kt of effective shear will be present allowing for stronger storm cells and linear structures. Low-level lapse rates will continue to steepen this afternoon, though cloud cover has been greater in the vicinity of the Chesapeake Bay. Given the potential for one or more clusters to evolve this afternoon, a watch is likely to address the threat for damaging wind gusts.

..Wendt/Hart.. 07/09/2026

[yoda]

Does Radarscope overdo the hail stuff? Says hail 2.75" on the warned storm... is that like max possible hail?

[yoda]

Looks like a slight bow near Lucketts

[MDphotog]

This is such a great storm in Frederick, we have had lightning and thunder for at least 2hrs, really intense in the last 45mins.

 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

This is very detailed and seems emphatic that extremely heavy rain will occur.

what I’m probably uneducated about is this recent spate of flood watches . I always  thought we were “watching” for an enhanced  probability, but not certainty, of heavy rain for the forecast area included in the watch.  
Seems  like the feedback I got lately is if a 4 mile by 4 mile area gets flooding rain then the watch for a much much larger area was confirmed? 

 

 

 

I’ve said this in the past but man flash flood watches should not have been discontinued. A flood watch is far too broad of a product that tries to handle widespread synoptic setups that are more river flood based and pop up storms that dump over a small area and cause extreme flash flooding.