JakkelWx Posted Tuesday at 01:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:50 PM can see how the lack of rain in central DE has led to dews at least 10 degrees lower than surrounding areas 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted Tuesday at 02:06 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:06 PM 13 hours ago, CAPE said: @SnowenOutThere Metrology is important(essential) to meteorology. Not sure that it is taught in a meteorology program(probably not), but imo it probably should be. If not, you can get a more profound understanding of some of the questions you seek by learning a bit more about it. Just a suggestion. It usually is not. I'm trying to change that here at UMD. I consider myself somewhat of a Meteorologist Metrologist myself. Though I'm always humbled by those NIST people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 02:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:25 PM 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: lol what the hell is the criteria down there??? A heat advisory seems…insufficient. I think the Heat Advisory is just for Wed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 02:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:26 PM Woot, we got our Extreme Heat Wave Thursday/Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted Tuesday at 03:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:10 PM 43 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Woot, we got our Extreme Heat Wave Thursday/Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted Tuesday at 03:20 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:20 PM 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: 06z GFS/Euro try to keep the upper 90s to 100° through Sunday, 7/5. I should have done the contest from Thursday to Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Tuesday at 03:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:49 PM Impressive clustering from the EPS. Nearly all of it's ensemble members have DCA at or above 100° air temp on Thursday and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted Tuesday at 03:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:57 PM It's funny how the heat never wanes as we get close to the event like the precip totals do. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted Tuesday at 04:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:03 PM 14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Impressive clustering from the EPS. Nearly all of it's ensemble members have DCA at or above 100° air temp on Thursday and Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Tuesday at 04:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:34 PM Heat Dome Erica looks on track. God, this is so boring. It's hard to get into heat lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 04:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:46 PM 1 hour ago, H2O said: Dammit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted Tuesday at 04:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:47 PM If i sit outside long enough thur-sat, will my fat melt away? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Tuesday at 05:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:33 PM 91 feels like 96. Ahhh feels great compared to the next 4 days haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted Tuesday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:50 PM As a Utility worker and weather enthusiast i’m actually excited to feel these high temps. Back home hottest day I think i have experienced was 101 with an index of 115 back in 2012. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Tuesday at 06:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:35 PM Kinda weird that it’s gonna be hotter there than in Vegas this week, for at least a couple days. Was breezy af all weekend but now winding down and barely hitting the low 90s. Sunday and yesterday felt more like Denver than Vegas. Pretty great hiking weather. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted Tuesday at 06:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:52 PM 92/53 HI 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Tuesday at 06:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:57 PM Interesting low level humidity increase in the mountains. Some dewpoints in the mid 70s already. Hancock mesonet site has a heat index of 99° already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted Tuesday at 07:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:59 PM 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Interesting low level humidity increase in the mountains. Some dewpoints in the mid 70s already. Hancock mesonet site has a heat index of 99° already. Most of the PWS I see around Garrett reporting 85-88 with dewpoints around 70. 90* degree days are pretty rare up there and assuming the next 3 days will be warmer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Tuesday at 08:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:03 PM Cumberland airport (KCBE) with a dew of 74° and HI of 101°. Impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted Tuesday at 08:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:40 PM Thew MD Mesonet station in Frostburg is hovering around a dewpoint of 75-76 degrees with a station pressure of 939.8mb. That's 21 g/kg Mixing ratio which is CRAZY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Tuesday at 08:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:42 PM 1 minute ago, wxmeddler said: Thew MD Mesonet station in Frostburg is hovering around a dewpoint of 75-76 degrees with a station pressure of 939.8mb. That's 21 g/kg Mixing ratio which is CRAZY. There's gotta be some kind of pooling in the mountains. Even the Poolesville sensor is showing a trend towards higher surface dews and HI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted Tuesday at 08:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:46 PM 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: There's gotta be some kind of pooling in the mountains. Even the Poolesville sensor is showing a trend towards higher surface dews and HI. Definitely an odd mesoscale setup with the old modified arctic airmass sitting off the coast and mixing down the drier air on the eastern shore whole the mountains get obscene moisture 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted Tuesday at 08:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:46 PM We do have a decreasing sun angle; has that been considered in the forecast? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted Tuesday at 09:06 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:06 PM 19 minutes ago, konksw said: We do have a decreasing sun angle; has that been considered in the forecast? Its been a little over a week since solstice I wouldn’t think that would have an impact currently. August perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted Tuesday at 09:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:13 PM 26 minutes ago, konksw said: We do have a decreasing sun angle; has that been considered in the forecast? It's the hour more of sun in the afternoon because of daylight savings time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Tuesday at 09:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:24 PM Detailed analysis in latest NWS Sterling discussion for the upcoming heat wave/ thunderstorm threat. Nice read with information that hopefully will keep people safe in the upcoming heat wave. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 345 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Heat Advisory for Wednesday has been expanded to include Calvert and St. Mary`s Counties. The Extreme Heat Watches for Thursday and Friday have been expanded to include Green, Albemarle, Nelson, Augusta, and Rockingham Counties. Have included brief low precipitation chances focused around subtle boundaries over the next few days. DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Extreme heat builds over the region through at least the end of the week. What may turn out to be the most intense heat wave since 2012 is on our doorstep. It is important to plan ahead on how to best keep safe from the heat. Have a plan on how to stay cool (and hydrated). Tips for the heat... -Keep Cool: If there is not access to air conditioning, you can look up nearby cooling centers through local county websites. Buildings that do not have air conditioning may remain hot for several days after the worst of the heat wave. -Stay Hydrated: Remember that drinks containing alcohol or caffeine actually dehydrate, so balance that with water or sports drinks. -Take It Easy: Try to limit strenuous outdoor activity (work, exercise, etc.) to early morning or late evening when it`s not as hot. -Dress For Heat: Wear lightweight, light-colored, loose fitting clothing; this helps reflect the sun and allows for airflow to keep cooler. -Look Before You Lock: Never leave anyone unattended in a vehicle as temperatures can reach lethal levels in a matter of minutes. -Check In With Each Other: Check in on family, friends, and neighbors. The elderly, very young, and those with compromised immunity or mental health are at an increased risk from heat. -Be Aware: Stay tuned to the latest heat alerts and forecast from NWS, and be mindful that prolonged extreme heat could impact power, water, and transportation systems. The meteorology... Low-level moisture has increased substantially with dew points well into the 70s in the valleys west of I-81. Combined with widespread air temperatures to around 90, this is resulting in heat index values of 100 to 105 in the lower elevations of western MD and eastern WV in the lee of the Appalachian crest. The heat will continue to build Wednesday as ridging continues to strengthen just to the south and west. Temperatures soaring well into the 90s with dew points in the upper 60s (west of the Blue Ridge) to lower 70s (east of the Blue Ridge) will lead to heat index values around or a little over 100 (west) and 105 (east) during the afternoon hours. This is covered with a Heat Advisory for all except the higher elevation zones, although there is growing concern that prolonged abnormal heat even at higher elevations could be impactful where there is limited AC available. Will evaluate as the event draws near to see if those zones need to be added. In the meantime, have expanded the advisory into Calvert and St. Mary`s Counties. It looks like the low-level moisture gets there a bit quicker than in previous cycles of guidance, possibly aided by slightly higher surface dew points in the vicinity of the tidal Potomac River and the Chesapeake Bay. Extreme Heat Watches remain in effect for Thursday through Friday when the heat peaks, and have been expanded to include all but the higher elevation zones (though again concern is growing for impactful heat even at higher elevations). Air temperatures are likely to near record values Thursday and Friday. Dew points will remain elevated especially east of the Blue Ridge resulting in widespread heat index values well over 100, with increasing potential to exceed 110 east of the Blue Ridge toward the metros. Areas near larger bodies of water (tidal Potomac River, Chesapeake Bay) could see spotty heat indices near 115 at times. The heat is likely to continue into Saturday, though the exact magnitude becomes increasingly uncertain several days out. This uncertainty is also raised due to potential for showers and thunderstorms that could put a lid on temperatures. Heat headlines are likely at some point, but confidence in reaching widespread warning criteria is low for now. Either way, it will likely be very impactful given it will be several days in a row of high heat and humidity. Sunday looks relatively "cooler" though temperatures likely still reach the 90s with elevated humidity. This could push us close to Heat Advisory criteria once again. Even at night, temperatures will stay in the 70s for most (perhaps not falling below 80 in the major urban centers). This keeps heat indices in the 90s most of the night, offering little to no relief from the heat. Lastly, the intense heat and humidity will likely result in poor air quality at times. Visit your state`s air quality information website for more information. KEY MESSAGE 2...Thunderstorm chance increase through this weekend, with an increased risk for severe thunderstorms Friday into the Independence Day weekend. With excessive heat and humidity comes the potential for severe weather as abundant instability and moisture pool over the region. Any showers and thunderstorms through mid week should be very spotty. A few spots to look out for: near the intersection of a bay breeze and lee pressure trough Wednesday afternoon, and near the higher terrain Thursday afternoon. Most of the area/time will be dry, but any storms that do manage to form could produce very gusty winds, frequent lightning, and torrential downpours or even some hail given large amounts of potential energy (CAPE). Upper-level ridging will gradually buckle Friday before flattening over the weekend into early next week as the broad subtropical high pressure shifts further offshore and a series of shortwave disturbances pivot through. Timing and coverage of storms have yet to be determined given the placement of synoptic/mesoscale features. With that said, looking at scattered strong to severe thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening period with damaging wind gusts, large hail, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning as the main threats. Storms may be of the pulse variety likely forming along the lee side trough east of the Alleghenies or residual outflows (i.e the bay/river breeze) due to the lack shear aloft Friday into Saturday. Of course this is subject to change based on any ripples of energy that move between over top of the ridge shunted to the south and the jet stream to the north (Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley). If this were to occur, we could be looking at more organized and widespread storm clusters, but confidence in this is low at this time. Multiple instances of deterministic/ensemble guidance illustrate this on both Saturday into Sunday as the ridge flattens further. Google AI WxNet along with CIPS/CSU AI probs illustrate this with rather high probabilities of severe weather this weekend. As we approach the Independence Day weekend, have a weather preparedness plan ready to go, especially if you are outdoors (i.e at a picnic with family or a fireworks show). Plan ahead for any outdoor activities this weekend, as they are likely to be interrupted by storms at some point. Have a way to get trusted warnings, download a radar/lightning app to keep aware of changing weather conditions, and know when to act. When thunder roars, go indoors. Lightning can strike up to 15 miles outside of the core of thunderstorms, so wait 30 minutes after that last rumble of thunder before resuming outdoor activities. Given the heat in place, some storms could be quite intense (if they form). From a historical perspective, prolonged near record heat in summer often ends in a period of strong storms. Intense storms can produce hail and high winds in addition to rain and lightning, so having access to sturdy shelter is important. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted Tuesday at 10:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:11 PM 1 hour ago, konksw said: We do have a decreasing sun angle; has that been considered in the forecast? I am pretty sure the heat will stick to the pavement, no matter the sun angle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted Tuesday at 10:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:39 PM RH fell to 23% at dover AFB at 17:55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EC609 Posted Wednesday at 12:21 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:21 AM Only hit 89 today at DCA and IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted Wednesday at 12:37 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:37 AM Heat contest closes tonight. Get your guesses in to win the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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