2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[vortex95]

21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I thank you for that and those links with great info and visuals--it's already starting to make more sense. Just that lottle hit goes a long way 

Wikipedia, believe it or not, has good objective wx definitions, and then you can look at all it references at the bottom, and go from there.

[vortex95]

30 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Is there a way to calculate how many mph thise strong  vs weak updrafts are moving at,?

It not easy b/c it depends on the CAPE distribution in the vertical column.  In other words, you can't apply one updraft value at all levels of the atmosphere where there is CAPE b/c the amount of CAPE can vary a lot depending on the level you are at. 

Total CAPE does not necessarily tell the entire story as to full updraft potential.

Yes, generally more the CAPE the better, but it does not always mean the same type of svr wx or even things like lightning frequency or most efficient rainfall rates.

And CAPE (hence updraft potential) is almost never realized fully by a storm, b/c of 1) dry air entrainment and 2) precip loading.

And it goes one step further.  Updraft strength is also dependent on pressure perturbations induced by a mesocyclone.  For instance, mesocyclones are typically strongest at mid-levels.  So you actually have lowest pressure here.  This results in dynamic uplift b/c of the pressure deficit aloft.  Now, this is superimposed on CAPE that is present.  A mesocyclone present can effectively double the updraft strength that would exist just from CAPE alone, which is why supercell updrafts are so intense.

More CAPE down at low-levels is better for tornadogenesis b/c you increase updraft acceleration potential where it matters most (stretching of a vortex).  That's why we look at how much CAPE exists 0-3 km for one ingredient for tornado potential.
 
I'm just scratching the sfc here, but you get the idea.  It's hard to set nice, neat values in a given atmosphere due to so many factors.
 

[AlexD1990]

Tornado warning wicomico county 

[midatlanticweather]

Man, that warned cell in West central VA

[vortex95]

10 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Man, that warned cell in West central VA

Are these things ever going to end today?  TORs issued this late in the evening for an approaching cold front are not common these parts, but we are dealing w/ a rather strong 500 trof for summer and a decent 250 speed max in the area.

And that's not something borderline either!  Small but quite intense mesocyclone.
 

[WEATHER53]

50 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

It not easy b/c it depends on the CAPE distribution in the vertical column.  In other words, you can't apply one updraft value at all levels of the atmosphere where there is CAPE b/c the amount of CAPE can vary a lot depending on the level you are at. 

Total CAPE does not necessarily tell the entire story as to full updraft potential.

Yes, generally more the CAPE the better, but it does not always mean the same type of svr wx or even things like lightning frequency or most efficient rainfall rates.

And CAPE (hence updraft potential) is almost never realized fully by a storm, b/c of 1) dry air entrainment and 2) precip loading.

And it goes one step further.  Updraft strength is also dependent on pressure perturbations induced by a mesocyclone.  For instance, mesocyclones are typically strongest at mid-levels.  So you actually have lowest pressure here.  This results in dynamic uplift b/c of the pressure deficit aloft.  Now, this is superimposed on CAPE that is present.  A mesocyclone present can effectively double the updraft strength that would exist just from CAPE alone, which is why supercell updrafts are so intense.

More CAPE down at low-levels is better for tornadogenesis b/c you increase updraft acceleration potential where it matters most (stretching of a vortex).  That's why we look at how much CAPE exists 0-3 km for one ingredient for tornado potential.
 
I'm just scratching the sfc here, but you get the idea.  It's hard to set nice, neat values in a given atmosphere due to so many factors.
 

Some of the  details of the upward column is like two hoses  but of different sizes so the flows are different?

[vortex95]

22 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Some of the  details of the upward column is like two hoses  but of different sizes so the flows are different?

I am not versed in the exact physics of the processes, but I can say this.  "Fat" CAPE on a sounding plot is not the same as "skinny" CAPE.  "Fat" CAPE promotes more rapid updraft acceleration (image 1), and "skinny" CAPE promotes less rapid updraft acceleration (image 2).  If you want svr wx, "fat" CAPE is more conducive to produce it.  "Skinny" CAPE is better for heavy rainfall and flash flooding potential.
 

[yoda]

Looks like next week we go again

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

   Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic...

   An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through
   the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be
   maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly
   flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great
   Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern
   periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are
   forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow
   regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from
   the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the
   Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain,
   and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe
   potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the
   Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks,
   particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by
   Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each
   day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time.

   ..Leitman.. 07/22/2026

 

[frd]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Looks like next week we go again

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

   Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic...

   An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through
   the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be
   maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly
   flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great
   Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern
   periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are
   forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow
   regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from
   the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the
   Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain,
   and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe
   potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the
   Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks,
   particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by
   Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each
   day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time.

   ..Leitman.. 07/22/2026

 

Machine learning did well in review,  pointing out days well in advance. At least from what I read 7 to 10 days ago. 

[Kmlwx]

Seems the GFS has a remnant EML in the vicinity for next week.