2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[aldie 22]

No tornado here a few miles north of Winchester but quite the show so far. 1.36 and pouring again 

[aldie 22]

9 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

No tornado here a few miles north of Winchester but quite the show so far. 1.36 and pouring again 

1.50 and dumping 

[aldie 22]

14 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

1.50 and dumping 

1.76

[Hank Scorpio]

Pretty tame wind, but we did have about a minute of nickle sized hail here in Leesburg. The storm also looked pretty cool on approach. 

[George BM]

Just a lightning barrage with that eastern Loudoun county storm.

[vortex95]

One thing today to the W in WV into wrn VA, lots of intense cells and tornadic signatures embedded well into larger precip areas, something you see more in a strongly-forced, dynamical set ups, which we do have today w/ the strong 500 trough and a solid 250 jet max moving into the region now.  Not something you see in the summer that often.


 

[aldie 22]

28 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

1.76

1.81 winding down now

[AmericanWxFreak]

These embedded cells all seem to still want to try to hook - I think we really lucked out on not having a widespread issue today.


.

[canderson]

It was pouring rain INSIDE Merriweather + lightning. I’m out of there  

[AmericanWxFreak]

It was pouring rain INSIDE Merriweather + lightning. I’m out of there  

They have awful storm water management too lol

[SolidIcewx]

At least this is a good widespread rain. Spreading the wealth.

[WEATHER53]

A weather board Must  function during extreme weather

Heaviest rain of event at 3@oh rate last 10 minutes 

[MN Transplant]

0.17” rain and a peak wind gust of 12mph today

[Maestrobjwa]

Bruh...still having thunder and lightning with this train!

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Bruh...still having thunder and lightning with this train!

The 18z sounding from IAD had ~4,500 surface CAPE. As we transition to nightfall, it's a perfect setup for some decent elevated convection.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The 18z sounding from IAD had ~4,500 surface CAPE. As we transition to nightfall, it's a perfect setup for some decent elevated convection.

Wow. Man I still don't fully understand what CAPE is, admittedly. I mean I see it's important for severe--what does it stand for? (Before someone sarcastically tells me to Google it I at least gotta know that, lol)

[NorthArlington101]

Wow. Man I still don't fully understand what CAPE is, admittedly. I mean I see it's important for severe--what does it stand for? (Before someone sarcastically tells me to Google it I at least gotta know that, lol)

I mean, you could Google “CAPE severe” and get there… but it’s Convective Available Potential Energy. :wink:

[frd]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wow. Man I still don't fully understand what CAPE is, admittedly. I mean I see it's important for severe--what does it stand for? (Before someone sarcastically tells me to Google it I at least gotta know that, lol)

CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. [1]

It measures atmospheric instability. It indicates how much energy is available to fuel rising air currents (updrafts) to create thunderstorms. [1, 2, 3, 4]

 

[wxdude64]

Getting closer to this area, doubt it gets here though...

Tornado Warning
WVC025-220145-
/O.NEW.KRNK.TO.W.0007.260722T0117Z-260722T0145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
917 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  West central Greenbrier County in southeastern West Virginia...

* Until 945 PM EDT.

* At 917 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Rainelle, moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Rainelle...
  Rupert...
  Quinwood...
  Bingham...
  Anjean...
  Duo...
  and Meadow Bluff.

[WeatherShak]

One inch of rain has fallen on my tempest in last 45 mins. Constant reds training overhead. Surprised not to see ffw yet.

[AlexD1990]

Soo....how's tomorrow looking 

[CAPE]

43 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wow. Man I still don't fully understand what CAPE is, admittedly. I mean I see it's important for severe--what does it stand for? (Before someone sarcastically tells me to Google it I at least gotta know that, lol)

It's me. You could have Googled it.

Now go to bed.

[WxUSAF]

@yoda I got caught in the first torrential downpour trying to run into the movies. Seems like it’s been raining since. 1.5”+?

[CAPE]

Nothing severe, so I was posting in the Obs thread, but this is a drought buster. Over 4" for the month- haven't seen that since..February?

Up to 1.6" now, mostly in the last hour.

[wxdude64]

Closer, closer....

This went REALLY close to the Lewisburg WV airport about 3 to 5 minutes ago.

Tornado Warning
WVC025-220230-
/O.NEW.KRNK.TO.W.0009.260722T0206Z-260722T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1006 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  East central Greenbrier County in southeastern West Virginia...

* Until 1030 PM EDT.

* At 1006 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located near Frankford, or near Renick, moving east at
  40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Neola...
  and Alvon.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

29 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's me. You could have Googled it.

Now go to bed.

Bed? Gufaw...I don't go to bed till 3 am buddy so I got 4.5 hours  

So rule of thumb for the forum all ye laymen...don't ask any questions--Google

But honestly, though...a glossary of abbreviations would help as well. I may start a thread and folks can add to it (though it does seem like someone in another thread did something similar but not sure where it was)

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, frd said:

CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. [1]

It measures atmospheric instability. It indicates how much energy is available to fuel rising air currents (updrafts) to create thunderstorms. [1, 2, 3, 4]

 

 

I thank you for that and those links with great info and visuals--it's already starting to make more sense. Just that lottle hit goes a long way 

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Bed? Gufaw...I don't go to bed till 3 am buddy so I got 4.5 hours  

So rule of thumb for the forum all ye laymen...don't ask any questions--Google

But honestly, though...a glossary of abbreviations would help as well. I may start a thread and folks can add to it (though it does seem like someone in another thread did something similar but not sure where it was)

Dude its so easy to find literally anything with AI. Just do a simple search with specifically what you want to know about-

What is CAPE and how does it relate to severe weather?

CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. It measures the amount of energy available in the atmosphere to drive the upward motion of air (updrafts), serving essentially as the fuel for severe thunderstorms. CAPE is measured in Joules per kilogram (J/kg). [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

 

How CAPE Works

When a parcel of air becomes warmer and less dense than the surrounding environment, it rises. CAPE calculates the total buoyancy force acting on that rising parcel throughout the depth of the atmosphere. The greater the temperature difference between the rising air and the environment, the higher the CAPE value and the faster the air ascends. [1, 2, 3]

 

CAPE Values and Severe Weather

Meteorologists use CAPE to gauge the intensity and potential severity of convective storms. In general, higher CAPE values indicate greater atmospheric instability. [1, 2, 3]

• 0 – 1,000 J/kg: Stable to weakly unstable. Generally low risk of severe weather.

• 1,000 – 2,500 J/kg: Moderate instability. Capable of producing strong, sustained thunderstorms.

• 2,500 – 4,000 J/kg: Strong instability. High potential for severe weather, including large hail and damaging winds.

• Greater than 4,000 J/kg: Extreme instability. Strongly supports explosive updrafts and highly severe phenomena. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7]

 

The Bigger Picture

While CAPE represents the potential energy, it is not a standalone predictor. For severe weather to develop, high CAPE must combine with a trigger (such as a cold front or daytime heating) to force the air upward, and sufficient wind shear (changes in wind speed and direction with height) to organize the storm. 

 

What are the different types of CAPE?

 

In meteorology, CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) measures atmospheric instability and storm fuel. The four main types used to evaluate severe weather potential vary by the specific air parcel measured: [1, 2, 3, 4]

• MLCAPE (Mean-Layer CAPE): Averages the characteristics of air parcels in the lowest 100 millibars of the atmosphere. It represents the mixed boundary layer and is highly reliable for predicting organized, surface-based storm systems. [1, 2, 3]

• MUCAPE (Most-Unstable CAPE): Identifies the most buoyant parcel within the lowest portion of the atmosphere. It is the best tool for spotting elevated, nocturnal thunderstorms that develop above a surface inversion. [1]

• 0-3 km CAPE: Measures instability only in the lowest three kilometers of the atmosphere. Lower values in this shallow layer are specifically monitored for their ability to promote the rapid stretching of air required for tornado formation

• SBCAPE (Surface-Based CAPE): Measures the buoyancy of an air parcel directly at the Earth's surface. It is highly useful for predicting afternoon thunderstorm and tornado potential, though it can overstate instability on days with shallow surface moisture. [1]

 

 

 

 

[WEATHER53]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Dude its so easy to find literally anything with AI. Just do a simple search with specifically what you want to know about-

What is CAPE and how does it relate to severe weather?

CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. It measures the amount of energy available in the atmosphere to drive the upward motion of air (updrafts), serving essentially as the fuel for severe thunderstorms. CAPE is measured in Joules per kilogram (J/kg). [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

 

How CAPE Works

When a parcel of air becomes warmer and less dense than the surrounding environment, it rises. CAPE calculates the total buoyancy force acting on that rising parcel throughout the depth of the atmosphere. The greater the temperature difference between the rising air and the environment, the higher the CAPE value and the faster the air ascends. [1, 2, 3]

 

CAPE Values and Severe Weather

Meteorologists use CAPE to gauge the intensity and potential severity of convective storms. In general, higher CAPE values indicate greater atmospheric instability. [1, 2, 3]

• 0 – 1,000 J/kg: Stable to weakly unstable. Generally low risk of severe weather.

• 1,000 – 2,500 J/kg: Moderate instability. Capable of producing strong, sustained thunderstorms.

• 2,500 – 4,000 J/kg: Strong instability. High potential for severe weather, including large hail and damaging winds.

• Greater than 4,000 J/kg: Extreme instability. Strongly supports explosive updrafts and highly severe phenomena. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7]

 

The Bigger Picture

While CAPE represents the potential energy, it is not a standalone predictor. For severe weather to develop, high CAPE must combine with a trigger (such as a cold front or daytime heating) to force the air upward, and sufficient wind shear (changes in wind speed and direction with height) to organize the storm. 

 

What are the different types of CAPE?

 

In meteorology, CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) measures atmospheric instability and storm fuel. The four main types used to evaluate severe weather potential vary by the specific air parcel measured: [1, 2, 3, 4]

• MLCAPE (Mean-Layer CAPE): Averages the characteristics of air parcels in the lowest 100 millibars of the atmosphere. It represents the mixed boundary layer and is highly reliable for predicting organized, surface-based storm systems. [1, 2, 3]

• MUCAPE (Most-Unstable CAPE): Identifies the most buoyant parcel within the lowest portion of the atmosphere. It is the best tool for spotting elevated, nocturnal thunderstorms that develop above a surface inversion. [1]

• 0-3 km CAPE: Measures instability only in the lowest three kilometers of the atmosphere. Lower values in this shallow layer are specifically monitored for their ability to promote the rapid stretching of air required for tornado formation

• SBCAPE (Surface-Based CAPE): Measures the buoyancy of an air parcel directly at the Earth's surface. It is highly useful for predicting afternoon thunderstorm and tornado potential, though it can overstate instability on days with shallow surface moisture. [1]

 

 

 

 

Is there a way to calculate how many mph thise strong  vs weak updrafts are moving at,?

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wow. Man I still don't fully understand what CAPE is, admittedly. I mean I see it's important for severe--what does it stand for? (Before someone sarcastically tells me to Google it I at least gotta know that, lol)

One way of thinking of it as an "integrated lifted index."  If you know what lifted index is, CAPE is just a more advanced version of it, quantifying instability better in the atmosphere.