Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[Wetbulbs88]

3 minutes ago, Wxtrix said:

 

being interested in people's snow chases is being "small"?

 

How does me not following ever one of 200 members' exact plans have anything to do with being interested or not? 

Go ahead and list for me exactly what everyone is doing and where they are. 

Utter clown. Zero logical ability. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, CAPE said:

My uncle lives there. Those bands are pivoting west, hopefully to my yard.

Looking at radar, you getting destroyed

[SnowtoRain]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I made a post early this morning about the forecast for here being too bullish. I said it should be more like 8-12, but I would favor closer to 8 at this point.

Probably be lucky to break 5" in Easton. Always curious why local NWS does not adjust sooner.

[baltosquid]

Walked the dog. Slushy coating on grass and other amenable surfaces. Light snow, a bit breezy. At times, light-moderate. Never really got true heavy snow here unfortunately. At this point, 2-4" seems too high now. T-2" more like. We'll see in the morning. One day Baltimore will get the goods without complications... one day.

[WVclimo]

Berkeley County, WV schools just announced a two-hour delay for tomorrow.  Not because of the half-inch of snow we got today that didn't stick to any pavement, but because of an 8:00 p.m. update they received from NWS suggesting the possibility of a "flash freeze." 

[2015Wrx]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

What's going on with this norlun trough? It's giving me like 0.5" per hour

Careful we're not allowed to call it a norlun anymore according to that miserable chick in Charleston.

[Wxtrix]

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

How does me not following ever one of 200 members' exact plans have anything to do with being interested or not? 

Go ahead and list for me exactly what everyone is doing and where they are. 

Utter clown. Zero logical ability. 

hope you get some snow tonight so you can cheer up.

[CAPE]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Looking at radar, you getting destroyed

Yeah the yellows are filling in. I'm not there though. 

[ChillinIt]

Northern Cecil County 5.5 !

[THEREALTOR1]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

My uncle lives there. Those bands are pivoting west, hopefully to my yard.

I'm watching that on radar and Yes Goldsboro/Greensboro is about to get hammered IMO

[SnowtoRain]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah the yellows are filling in. I'm not there though. 

Yeah I was about to say your area looks like it will potentially get close to the low end of guidance

[AmericanWxFreak]

Heavier returns from the trough spreading further into hoco then I imagined they would

[jayyy]

There are 0 words for what’s happening under this band up this way. Sorry it didn’t pan out so well back at home team

[Chris_B]

32 and slushy

[JakkelWx]

Going out to measure. eyeballing a little over 6 inches now. snowing crazy hard with blizzard conditions every couple of mins.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Chris_B said:

32 and slushy

Yeah, but there's no norlun! It's like 0.4" per hour

[MN Transplant]

Still 33/34 at DCA.  Wonder if they’ll report much of anything.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Yeah, but there's no norlun! It's like 0.4" per hour

I think it might be the thing over DC. The western band is dying out 

[Mordecai]

10 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Walked the dog. Slushy coating on grass and other amenable surfaces. Light snow, a bit breezy. At times, light-moderate. Never really got true heavy snow here unfortunately. At this point, 2-4" seems too high now. T-2" more like. We'll see in the morning. One day Baltimore will get the goods without complications... one day.

Same here in Fed Hill. Pretty much snow tv for the last few hours. I can see why we downgraded back down to WWA, ha. Should've stayed in Ashburn for this one. 

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Heavier returns from the trough spreading further into hoco then I imagined they would

Yeah, a lot of the mesos and even the euro showed the norlun moving over us as it weakened.  But maybe we can get a little juice with it?  At the moment just hoping I can hit the bottom of my original 2-6" range.  Maybe 3" isn't totally out of the question, but could be tough.  

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Still 33/34 at DCA.  Wonder if they’ll report much of anything.

Yeah, IAD going to be clear winner. I bet BWI is going to have some trivial amount as well.

[dailylurker]

28 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Ah took his Crofton locale at face value. Thanks. 

Sorry! I should of said I'm in Harrington Delaware. We have 7-8" here and it's smoking. 

[BristowWx]

20 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Based on radar trends I think I am done with heavy rates. Light wind-blown snows should continue at least a couple hours before tapering. Not sure how much that’ll add to my 2.5” total, maybe make a run for 3” 

Looking back now.  Which model had the best handle on things?  Not the GFS for sure.  19 Feb 12z I was just north of 3ft on the GFS.  I am just shy of that by 3 ft.  The Euro maybe?  Did any model nail this from 3-4 days out? 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I think it might be the thing over DC. The western band is dying out 

If there is a norlun I am directly in it according to radarscope, lemme go see how it is. 

[TowsonWeather]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

Yeah, but there's no norlun! It's like 0.4" per hour

Boo hoo. 

[psuhoffman]

56 minutes ago, CAPE said:

What margins are we losing when eastern areas at low elevation are getting crushed, in a marginal cold set up!. There is always nuance to this stuff. The deepening low and its location in this situation favors heavy snow in places that normally get less, while places inland at elevation are struggling to accumulate. I need more explanation about losing margins. Otherwise it sounds like whiny BS.

I'm genuinely confused what part of this is even remotely controversial or complicated.  The boundary is warming.  That is a fact.  And over the last 10 years there have been a number of storms where boundary temps were very marginal...within a degree or two of freezing in my area for a large part of the storm, where any colder would have helped me quite a bit.  I can't tell you how much.  No I can't say it would have been exactly 1f or 2f or 3f colder at a specific year.  But it would have been colder. and ANY colder would have meant more snow.  30 years ago I would have got more snow from todays setup.  I can't say if it would have been 1" more or maybe 4" more but it would have been more...why do we need to debate about exactly how much more.  We do know that DC and Baltimore have lost about 30% of their snow on the whole to warming.  While we can't predict exactly what it means to a specific storm the ones with marginal boundary temps are the ones being impacted most.  I really really really don't get why this is even a controversial thing, its common sense.  

 

ETA: and the delmarva and NJ would have had more snow also!  They lost snow to rain today also before it flipped and then had crazy low rations...a little colder and places that get 12" might have got 15 or 18".  So even there it hurt them.  

[scope1]

Power coming and going 

[Miss Pixee]

Down to 33/32DP wind 11 mph. Tried to post some pics but had technical difficulties. Streets frosty with tire tracks. Everything else covered. Speed bumps have more cover than the lanes, weird. Still rippin'. 

Giggity.

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Still 33/34 at DCA.  Wonder if they’ll report much of anything.

So far DCA is only a trace. I know we have this discussion almost every storm, but DCA is not a good spot for official snow obs.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Snowing pretty good in the dc band, breezy.  Would be quiet and peaceful except for the sound of all the dripping off my gutters lol. 

[WEATHER53]

I stayed 3-5” for a long time and then went 5” to possibly 8.    Not so good