Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[Wetbulbs88]

23 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said:

More for some of the local peeps...

Bob's post aging like lemon in milk.  

[JakkelWx]

4.2"

[WxUSAF]

Sidewalks and neighborhood paved surfaces all slushy and getting snowy. Wind picking up. Probably accumulated 0.2-0.3” in my 40 min @Jebman Jebwalk 

[TheColtrane]

An incredible 0.75" on my deck in Reston so far. At least 0.25" on the pavement. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Getting skipped out this way with the goods. Enjoy to the east. Another fail for MBY.

We could've had 2 - 3 inches today if it had been colder.   5 - 6 hours of moderate snow with absolutely nothing to show for it.  This part of the storm was always what we were getting.  Clear for a while that we were missing all of the coastal, and anyone thinking a Norlun was happening out here has never paid attention to weather out here. 

The 10 year curse continues.

[Random Chaos]

35.2F, moderate to heavy snow, minimal sticking - mostly melting on contact.

[Whitecheddar]

Just now, Whitecheddar said:

I thought the radar was looking nice over my head in hagerstown as well. I can report the lightest snow since about 1pm right now. So unless its some epic cinematic countdown to a slaughtering type shit... I report.. no.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

Lol....told y'all the last week of Feb was bad fortune for warning level snow! This definitely will NOT count--best we get is a couple inches during this week. Gotta be either before Feb 20th or after March 1st!

[MillvilleWx]

23 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said:

More for some of the local peeps...

The model ratio on the NBM is too high and it’s overshooting the QPF. Unless I’m completely missing something (plausible), this will be overdone west of the bay outside the norlun, which you can see is absent from this output because it’s a blend. 

[mitchnick]

18z Euro w/norlun obviously!

[wawarriors4]

Just got in from Richmond back to Stafford.

Snow, 32

1.6 inches on the board

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Roads are snow covered through Smithsburg. 

Kind of surprised how fast they caved. 

Snow has lightened up now.

I was just over near Sabillasville School and just wet.  You must have had some extra level of the bursts.  I suspect road conditions to deteriorate through the night through whether white or hidden ice.  

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

18z Euro w/norlun obviously!

Here's Kuchera 

[Kay]

LWX seems to think that central MD, the eastern WV panhandle, and south into the VA piedmont will get a piece of the norlun trough, and the upper level energy dropping in from the NW tonight (paraphrasing from AFD 3 hours ago). Maybe DOA calls for some of these areas premature?

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Here's Kuchera 

Have an outside chance of verifying at kuchera 3.5" on this map considering I'm already closing on 2" and the norlun hasn't formed/is just starting to form

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Euro w/norlun obviously!

The would he cool if it happens!!!

[baltosquid]

Zero accumulation so far in Canton.

[IronTy]

Not too impressed looking at the radar over the bay right now.  Calvert seems to be stuck in a precip hole and it's just a mile or two to the east.  Light snow now with about an inch on the ground.  

[Paleocene]

7 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Absolutely, you were right to be skeptical of this setup yesterday! But also maybe we get lucky under the norlun still who knows. 

Yeah for DC beltway area 3 things made me feel cautious 

1) never being in jackpot zones except for those few wild GFS runs back on like weds. 

2) jackpot zones shifting E/NE

3) marginal temps during day 

Gotta know the climo. To be clear this very much could have been a win with a better 500mb pass, even slightly better antecedent cold. But we have many ways to not win here.

Still holding on to hope for getting nuked by the IVT though 

[Solution Man]

Too far east, too far west, too far north, too far south, oh well

[Miss Pixee]

Moco offices and schools 2 hour delay. No word on gov...

OPM code yellow. Director giving early unofficial word. 2 hr delay, unscheduled leave/telework.

[yoda]

Just now, Miss Pixee said:

Moco offices and schools 2 hour delay. No word on gov...

OPM code yellow. Director giving early unofficial word. 2 hr delay, unscheduled leave/telework.

Its official 

https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/

 

[Warm Nose]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Here's Kuchera 

Fail to the very end. Impressive.

[gunny23]

I just came out to pick up a pizza.  Roads are terrible in Sterling.  

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

The would he cool if it happens!!!

10-1 maps might be fine for norlun it should be 10-12:1 dendrites in the snow band. But that’s just taking the map verbatim. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

The would he cool if it happens!!!

Euro surprisingly low for the eastern shore and much of DE considering the runs the past few days imho.

[Wetbulbs88]

3 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Yeah for DC beltway area 3 things made me feel cautious 

1) never being in jackpot zones except for those few wild GFS runs back on like weds. 

2) jackpot zones shifting E/NE

3) marginal temps during day 

Gotta know the climo. To be clear this very much could have been a win with a better 500mb pass, even slightly better antecedent cold. But we have many ways to not win here.

Still holding on to hope for getting nuked by the IVT though 

Very good call. I was hoping we would pull something off. 

My final call was 2-4", in line with NWS. Can't predict the future, but I should have known that these rain-to-snow scenarios rarely work for us here. Climo just won out. 

[Kay]

5 minutes ago, Kay said:

LWX seems to think that central MD, the eastern WV panhandle, and south into the VA piedmont will get a piece of the norlun trough, and the upper level energy dropping in from the NW tonight (paraphrasing from AFD 3 hours ago). Maybe DOA calls for some of these areas premature?

@TSSN+ @DDweatherman thoughts?

[JakkelWx]

looks like a band setting up right over CAPE's yard.

[ThePhotoGuy]

Mod snow and 33.2 degrees. 
 

Very light accumulation on grass but that’s it. More melting than accumulating. 
 

rain total: 0.6

 

Unimpressive so far.