February 22-23 Storm Thread/OBS

[Albedoman]

33 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

I went fairly conservative with my first call on my page. I have 4-8" for the Lehigh Valley for now but confidence is pretty low. This has too many similarities to Boxing Day for my liking and that was a huge bust here. It'll be harder for this one to badly bust like that, but at this point I do think most heavy banding stays fairly close to I-95.

Thats why I said what I did as this entire event unfolds today. - with the complete model analogy you must wait until the OZ runs tonight before locking in on these insane snowfall amounts. I have been burned too many times locking in with snow weenie amounts only to watch them dwindle with some freak snow banding situation that  pops up.  Going negative tilt brings on these type of, especially for the coastal regions.   Blizzard watches out for the Atlantic City area?  Just how far can it tuck in and deep can it go. Stil too many issues on the table.  Lehigh Valley, this looks like we will be watching the Delamarva area get their share now of snow with this storm 

[snowwors2]

10 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Cecily taking the conserative road.... I may need to speak with her.

Hope she at least talked about the possibility of MUCH more‼️

[dizzy9479]

Channel 10 NBC as of now: 3-6 in city, 6-10 south and east.  Gonna go up!

[Roger Smith]

This has the feel of being one of those times where the GFS is on track and the other models will catch up. Not saying GFS is 100% correct but any sort of weighted compromise between it and various other guidance still gives a big outcome. 

[JTA66]

4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Cecily makes all the calls there. There's no way Payton can adjust those numbers unless Cecily approves it. I remember Herb dropkicking a guy for changing numbers, that shit don't fly!

 

Actually I think AccuWx makes the call for all of them.

I remember Herb and one of our classic NW storms. People must have been calling the station asking if they’d get rain or snow. The next time Herb gave his update he said, “If you don’t know where you live, buy a map! That’s what they’re there for.” 

[MGorse]

3 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

Thats why I said what I did as this entire event unfolds today. - with the complete model analogy you must wait until the OZ runs tonight before locking in on these insane snowfall amounts. I have been burned too many times locking in with snow weenie amounts only to watch them dwindle with some freak snow banding situation that  pops up.  Going negative tilt brings on these type of, especially for the coastal regions.   Blizzard watches out for the Atlantic City area?  Just how far can it tuck in and deep can it go. Stil too many issues on the table.  Lehigh Valley, this looks like we will be watching the Delamarva area get their share now of snow with this storm 

Blizzard watches no longer exist. 

[snowwors2]

2 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Actually I think AccuWx makes the call for all of them.

I remember Herb and one of our classic NW storms. People must have been calling the station asking if they’d get rain or snow. The next time Herb gave his update he said, “If you don’t know where you live, buy a map! That’s what they’re there for.” 

Nope…Official Accuweather (kyw radio) 3-6” city and nearby NW burbs…

ALL being VERY conservative (Thanks to Johnny Bo’ PTSD)‼️

[ChescoWx]

17 minutes ago, snowwors2 said:

Nope…Official Accuweather (kyw radio) 3-6” city and nearby NW burbs…

ALL being VERY conservative (Thanks to Johnny Bo’ PTSD)‼️

I think they should be conservative...unless you are along the coast and NE bound there is certainly a way you stay well below double digit snow totals IMHO!

[ChescoWx]

I know there are dissenting views on the below NBM model....

[Birds~69]

34 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Actually I think AccuWx makes the call for all of them.

I remember Herb and one of our classic NW storms. People must have been calling the station asking if they’d get rain or snow. The next time Herb gave his update he said, “If you don’t know where you live, buy a map! That’s what they’re there for.” 

Actually I didn't know this for sure? It makes sense though...."AccuWeather" is kind of a brand name, right? 

Herb was old school. If something irked him, he'll let you know in old style fashion..."Buy a F'en map for Christ sake...learn N,S,E,W!"

He did it in a mellow way but you knew what he was thinking...

[Birds~69]

46 minutes ago, snowwors2 said:

Nope…Official Accuweather (kyw radio) 3-6” city and nearby NW burbs…

ALL being VERY conservative (Thanks to Johnny Bo’ PTSD)‼️

Oh shit, I missed your post before replying to JTA66. I guess they have different AccuWeather totals for the same area which is kind of odd?

[The Iceman]

 

clear trend…

[LVblizzard]

18z Euro continued its west trend. It’s not like the GFS but it gets warning criteria snow back to Philly and the burbs.

[Fields27]

18z Euro continued its west trend. It’s not like the GFS but it gets warning criteria snow back to Philly and the burbs.

Highly doubt it's done trending too. Man if you told me we would be here when the Gfs was on an island I would have called you crazy. This is getting fun. Still a day and a half for trends.

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[Voyager]

5 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

 

clear trend…

Anyway to slow that down a bit? I can't follow the initialization times.

[Heisy]

I owe you a streak down broad street mikeytim. First time in 16 years gfs potentially beat the euro in this time frame

[WxUnit]

To keep a long story short, Hurricane still doesn't buy the GFS solution. Though he does like 4-8 for the city with a chance for more. 

[MJO812]

Eps shifted more west. Wow

[bringmesnow1]

This is absolutely happening because I'm over in Milan watching the Olympics and am flying home, theoretically, on Monday.  It's locked in because in this one, extremely rare possibly first time ever instance I don't want the snow!

[Heisy]

I posted wrong gif, but eps is better lol

[Fields27]

Eps shifted more west. Wow

Definite lean left on those slp's too

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[BBasile]

5 minutes ago, WxUnit said:

To keep a long story short, Hurricane still doesn't buy the GFS solution. Though he does like 4-8 for the city with a chance for more. 

Time to backtrack because "King Euro."  If we all are going to owe the GFS a beer, then the pro's with a following owe it a six pack.  

[Heisy]

To keep a long story short, Hurricane still doesn't buy the GFS solution. Though he does like 4-8 for the city with a chance for more. 

I think he feels that way because of the euro playing catch up. Hard for the old timers to ever buy in, but it’s actually happening. I think 6-12” for Philly with me leaning towards the high end. Someone in NJ will get 20” maybe 2’

[Heisy]

[coastal front]

Man is this actually happening???? Holy shit what a trend the last 24 hours!

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, Fields27 said:

Definite lean left on those slp's too

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Sref also

[Physicsteve]

This is one of those cases that will keep us up in the future when the GFS is on an island giving false hope. This time it seems to be real, and it’s been awesome watching everything trend towards it instead of the other way around. Being a Philly sports fan and knowing weather will do what it wants, Im still weary and keeping an eye out for signs of a rug pull, but that’s more reflex than conscious thought.