“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Like I said earlier - no definitives we still have a chance with all scenarios still on the table.. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol this just got real

Yeah, 00z runs will shed clarity on this. I’m 50/50 now on this but this dichotomy from the 12z runs are telling. 

[SouthCoastMA]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Omg eps

Im naked

In cruiser? cc @MamdaniWx

[Henry's Weather]

16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is sick

Ridge is a little more amped (might be due to closer in = more consolidation, not necessarily change in signal), but check out the difference in strength and orientation of 50/50 low. Undeniable, allows heights to build antecedent to s/w which fixes the trough axis. If this hits, it’ll have to be bc of prior SWFE event getting TF outta the way

[vortex95]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What a collapse by the Euro . Just threw itself at GFS feet .

Mark the day Feb 19, 2026.  Watershed event, king EURO dethroned!

[Torch Tiger]

18 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

So what is going on here?  The ECMWF AI has consistently been more impressive than its op run, esp. at 500 w/ the intensity of the 500 low cut-off when it moves off the E Coast.  Now it is even more aggressive at 18z w/ an intense symmetric closed 500 low not far S of ACK at 96 hr, and a SNE crushing.  So given the short history of AI versions vs. its own op, which one usually "wins?"

what if it's a compromise, doesn't need to be 0 or 1

[Chrisrotary12]

One 18z suite does not make a trend. 00z is a coincidence. 12z would be a trend. 

[Hoth]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Omg eps

Im naked

Can you arrest yourself for indecent exposure?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah, 00z runs will shed clarity on this. I’m 50/50 now on this but this dichotomy from the 12z runs are telling. 

I'll give a cap tip to the GFS if it ends up sniffing this one out, It just gives more confidence, That a major system is in play on a threat when you have the 2 major global models onboard instead of one on an island.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

what if it's a compromise, doesn't need to be 0 or 1

Definitely a possibility.    Or both camps could be completely wrong

[Masswx]

Had to call dad to tell him to check models

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Masswx said:

Had to call dad to tell him to check models

Where is he?

[Masswx]

On another note nice nados in Indiana 

[Masswx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Where is he?

At his parents house with my sister 

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Definitely a possibility.    Or both camps could be completely wrong

Nobody knows.

[SouthCoastMA]

@Massplowif this holds I need some help. kidding not kidding 

[JACKASS]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Where is he?

Drinking, heavily.

[bristolri_wx]

Let's not get too excited.  We've seen this before this winter, even when it's this close.  Let's get two or three runs in a row for a trend.  Promising though...

I continue to feel like as the resolution of the global models increases there have been increases in error in this type of forecasting of what happens with the sensible weather at the surface, as the input data points have not increased as significantly as the model resolution.  Just an opinion from a curious, but somewhat ignorant, model and weather enthusiast.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where is he?

Maybe he did see the euro package and is now in the back of a cruiser?

[JACKASS]

3 minutes ago, Masswx said:

At his parents house with my sister 

 

2 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

Drinking, heavily.

Been visiting parents while at his age, alcohol always involved. Usually before even leaving to go there (wasn't driving).

[dryslot]

The board would not be able to handle anymore regression at this point, I think we went pass that threshold.............lol

[tavwtby]

I'm not getting pulled in until I see three consistent runs across multiple model platforms, ain't falling for that again, but damn!

[78Blizzard]

11 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

One 18z suite does not make a trend. 00z is a coincidence. 12z would be a trend. 

Except that the GFS and CMC have been steadfast pretty much throughout, and now the Euro is finally catching on.  The trend away from an ots E movement has been apparent now for many runs on other than the Euro.

[kdxken]

Meteo Mark right again! He's a savant.

[Snowcrazed71]

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Omg eps

Im naked

My eyes..... MY EYES!!!! ( If you know you know ) Kev must not have watched Friends

[Torch Tiger]

14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Definitely a possibility.    Or both camps could be completely wrong

hah yeah, that's an option, and also what I was getting at. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

I'm not getting pulled in until I see three consistent runs across multiple model platforms, ain't falling for that again, but damn!

Yea, I'm intrigued but need to see what this looks like tomorrow AM.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Except that the GFS and CMC have been steadfast pretty much throughout, and now the Euro is finally catching on.  The trend away from an ots E movement has been apparent now for many runs on other than the Euro.

Except Cmc has been shifting se and was a whiff at 12z. 

[apm]

Never seen such a big shift in EPS this close in:

12Z for 12Z Monday

18Z for 12Z Monday

 

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Except Cmc has been shifting se and was a whiff at 12z. 

Apparently there is a PARA cmc however do not know where to find it. They posted in the NY forum a few times in the past.