Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Like I said earlier - no definitives we still have a chance with all scenarios still on the table.. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: lol this just got real Yeah, 00z runs will shed clarity on this. I’m 50/50 now on this but this dichotomy from the 12z runs are telling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Omg eps Im naked In cruiser? cc @MamdaniWx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is sick Ridge is a little more amped (might be due to closer in = more consolidation, not necessarily change in signal), but check out the difference in strength and orientation of 50/50 low. Undeniable, allows heights to build antecedent to s/w which fixes the trough axis. If this hits, it’ll have to be bc of prior SWFE event getting TF outta the way 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What a collapse by the Euro . Just threw itself at GFS feet . Mark the day Feb 19, 2026. Watershed event, king EURO dethroned! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 18 minutes ago, vortex95 said: So what is going on here? The ECMWF AI has consistently been more impressive than its op run, esp. at 500 w/ the intensity of the 500 low cut-off when it moves off the E Coast. Now it is even more aggressive at 18z w/ an intense symmetric closed 500 low not far S of ACK at 96 hr, and a SNE crushing. So given the short history of AI versions vs. its own op, which one usually "wins?" what if it's a compromise, doesn't need to be 0 or 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 One 18z suite does not make a trend. 00z is a coincidence. 12z would be a trend. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Omg eps Im naked Can you arrest yourself for indecent exposure? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, 00z runs will shed clarity on this. I’m 50/50 now on this but this dichotomy from the 12z runs are telling. I'll give a cap tip to the GFS if it ends up sniffing this one out, It just gives more confidence, That a major system is in play on a threat when you have the 2 major global models onboard instead of one on an island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: what if it's a compromise, doesn't need to be 0 or 1 Definitely a possibility. Or both camps could be completely wrong 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masswx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Had to call dad to tell him to check models 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, Masswx said: Had to call dad to tell him to check models Where is he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masswx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 On another note nice nados in Indiana 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masswx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Where is he? At his parents house with my sister 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Definitely a possibility. Or both camps could be completely wrong Nobody knows. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 @Massplowif this holds I need some help. kidding not kidding 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JACKASS Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Where is he? Drinking, heavily. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Let's not get too excited. We've seen this before this winter, even when it's this close. Let's get two or three runs in a row for a trend. Promising though... I continue to feel like as the resolution of the global models increases there have been increases in error in this type of forecasting of what happens with the sensible weather at the surface, as the input data points have not increased as significantly as the model resolution. Just an opinion from a curious, but somewhat ignorant, model and weather enthusiast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Where is he? Maybe he did see the euro package and is now in the back of a cruiser? 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JACKASS Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, Masswx said: At his parents house with my sister 2 minutes ago, JACKASS said: Drinking, heavily. Been visiting parents while at his age, alcohol always involved. Usually before even leaving to go there (wasn't driving). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 The board would not be able to handle anymore regression at this point, I think we went pass that threshold.............lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I'm not getting pulled in until I see three consistent runs across multiple model platforms, ain't falling for that again, but damn! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 11 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: One 18z suite does not make a trend. 00z is a coincidence. 12z would be a trend. Except that the GFS and CMC have been steadfast pretty much throughout, and now the Euro is finally catching on. The trend away from an ots E movement has been apparent now for many runs on other than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Meteo Mark right again! He's a savant. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 41 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Omg eps Im naked My eyes..... MY EYES!!!! ( If you know you know ) Kev must not have watched Friends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Definitely a possibility. Or both camps could be completely wrong hah yeah, that's an option, and also what I was getting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 6 minutes ago, tavwtby said: I'm not getting pulled in until I see three consistent runs across multiple model platforms, ain't falling for that again, but damn! Yea, I'm intrigued but need to see what this looks like tomorrow AM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Except that the GFS and CMC have been steadfast pretty much throughout, and now the Euro is finally catching on. The trend away from an ots E movement has been apparent now for many runs on other than the Euro. Except Cmc has been shifting se and was a whiff at 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Never seen such a big shift in EPS this close in: 12Z for 12Z Monday 18Z for 12Z Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Except Cmc has been shifting se and was a whiff at 12z. Apparently there is a PARA cmc however do not know where to find it. They posted in the NY forum a few times in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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