Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[Joe4alb]

Only a 20mb difference 

[njwx7]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

Meso models will be key on better QPF as we get closer - QPF will be explosive with that type of developing low and banding.

 

 

Agree - think QPF on GFS was underdone

[Mail Man]

CMC is looking good.

[MJO812]

Just now, Mail Man said:

CMC is looking good.

Way west but not there yet

[Jt17]

CMC is looking good.

lol it's an improvement over itself, but it's way off the rest of the suite so far


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[SACRUS]

2/20 00z GGEM  Total QPF 2/22-2/23

 

[SnoSki14]

I still think it's gonna be a whiff if I'm being honest but the odds of a grazer are going up. 

[Nibor]

GEFS are west of 18z

[WeatherFox]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Way west but not there yet

I agree with you. A couple of inches possible around NYC..

[nycsnow]

Gefs are coming in more tucked in wooof

[MJO812]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Gefs are coming in more tucked in wooof

 

[Jt17]

I agree with you. A couple of inches possible around NYC..

Not what he meant. He's just saying cmc isn't quite there.


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[SACRUS]

IKMET

 

 

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

22 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Just need it like 50-75 miles north it’s close enough it can happen

I honestly do not want to be in the bullseye right now,,,,,plenty of time for this to creep North and a lil west in the later runs we have time

[SACRUS]

[SACRUS]

 

UKMET Total QPF

 

[TJW014]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Still a lotta members to the west too. 

[MJO812]

Ukie is west but the precip output is weird.

[nycsnow]

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, TJW014 said:

Still a lotta members to the west too. 

We need it north though (well you don't)

[psv88]

Don’t see this as a big hit for us. Low end warning event for city south and east. Don’t see room for more than that 

[wthrmn654]

20 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

B word

 

YOUR THE ONE OBSESSED WITH WIND! YOU BEEN HIDING

[Jt17]

We need it north though (well you don't)

It's about 30 miles north too. Need that 2x more.


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[wthrmn654]

14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I still think it's gonna be a whiff if I'm being honest but the odds of a grazer are going up. 

The odds of you being a whiff are going up! 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Don’t see this as a big hit for us. Low end warning event for city south and east. Don’t see room for more than that 

Another day of tracking.  Just need a cleaner phase.

[MJO812]

Gefs 

[Juturna]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Don’t see this as a big hit for us. Low end warning event for city south and east. Don’t see room for more than that 

I must be easily satisfied. Low end warning snows are big storms for me, especially with our winters lately. I don't need historic for it to be big.

[brooklynwx99]

17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I still think it's gonna be a whiff if I'm being honest but the odds of a grazer are going up. 

you think?

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

YOUR THE ONE OBSESSED WITH WIND! YOU BEEN HIDING

Wasn't that sferic? He would literally ask about wind everytime it was going to snow

[Rjay]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Don’t see this as a big hit for us. Low end warning event for city south and east. Don’t see room for more than that 

It's much closer than you think to something larger.  But as of right now I wouldn't forecast anything more than what you said.