The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

storm is only going to get colder aloft, no warm nose. low pressure well south of us deepening rapidly as the bombogenesis phenomenon takes over.

this  is a very complex set-up and there are going to be some surprises as we get further down the road today - possible extreme lifting - banding and on the flip side a large dry slot somewhere cutting off precip for hours

 

[NJwx85]

I’m not worried about models pulling back. It literally happens every storm. This is a long duration event with explosive dynamics. There will be many surprise's.

[cleetussnow]

24 minutes ago, TKFJ said:

Upton should not have bit on the crazy numbers being printed out by the NAM/GFS. The 12-18” forecast for the NE NJ counties should have stuck. 18-22” is too high

Based on what?  

[winterwarlock]

Cloudy here after some light rain earlier

 

37 degrees

 

Belle Mead NJ

[donsutherland1]

For reference:

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

NYC (Central Park) Snowstorms (Top 40 like the old radio countdowns) we may have a new smash hit coming in the top 15 

 Largest → Smallest

Jan 22–24, 2016 – 27.5"

Feb 11–12, 2006 – 26.9"

Dec 26–27, 1947 – 26.4"

Feb 25–27, 2010 – 20.9"

Jan 7–8, 1996 – 20.2"

Dec 26–27, 2010 – 20.0"

Feb 16–17, 2003 – 19.8"

Jan 26–27, 2011 – 19.0"

Mar 7–8, 1941 – 18.1"

Feb 5–7, 1978 – 17.7"

Feb 11–12, 1983 – 17.6"

Feb 3–4, 1961 – 17.4"

Jan 31–Feb 3, 2021 – 17.4"

Dec 19–20, 1948 – 16.0"

Feb 9–10, 1969 – 15.3"

Dec 11–12, 1960 – 15.2"

Mar 3–4, 1960 – 14.5"

Dec 5–7, 2003 – 14.0"

Jan 22–23, 2005 – 13.8"

Dec 21–22, 1959 – 13.7"

Jan 19–20, 1978 – 13.6"

Jan 23–24, 1935 – 13.0"

Feb 11, 1994 – 12.8"

Feb 19, 1979 – 12.7"

Jan 12–13, 1964 – 12.5"

Feb 7, 1967 – 12.5"

Feb 13–14, 2014 – 12.5"

Dec 30, 2000 – 12.0"

Mar 20–21, 1958 – 11.8"

Mar 18–19, 1956 – 11.6"

Jan 21–22, 2014 – 11.5"

Feb 8–9, 2013 – 11.4"

Jan 25–26, 2026 – 11.4"

Dec 26, 1933 – 11.2"

Dec 19–20, 2009 – 10.9"

Feb 4, 1995 – 10.8"

Feb 20–21, 1947 – 10.7"

Feb 16–17, 1996 – 10.7"

Mar 13–14, 1993 – 10.6"

Feb 11, 1933 – 10.0"

Feb 10, 2010 – 10.0"

Where's 1888?

[MJO812]

This is like Christmas morning. Enjoy everyone. Its been years since we saw a blizzard.

[Allsnow]

36 as light rain continues 

[Northof78]

100% light wet snow here now, no accumulation 

[Blizzardo]

It's getting breezy over here and you can feel the temp is dropping. 

[Brian5671]

some off and on light snow here

[Snowshack]

First flurries in wading river, 34f.  

[Bxstormwatcher360]

My temp has dropped from 35 to 31. The precip shield is quickly approaching. All snow is forecasted here. 25 mins of drizzle to start,its been snow since.

[Roger Smith]

Blizzard of 1888 started with a bit of rain too. It was around 38F when the precip began with that historic storm on a similar track. 

[Neblizzard]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

36 as light rain continues 

I’d give it another hour or two. It’s like marinating the sauce.   Epic cold and blocking are gone so we’ll have to rely on dynamics.  It’s ok.,

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Roger Smith said:

Blizzard of 1888 started with a bit of rain too. It was around 38F when the precip began with that historic storm on a similar track. 

I think it was a fair amount of rain before it flipped?

[KrummWx]

Off and on snow showers in Chelsea

[LoboLeader1]

Temp now down to 30F here.

[SACRUS]

[wishcast_hater]

I never watch TV but happened to tune into AccuWeather Channel just now. Bernie Rayo calling for 10-14”.
Very conservative across all forecast areas. Meanwhile TWC calling for 18-24 for NYC. SMH.


.

[cleetussnow]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is like Christmas morning. Enjoy everyone. Its been years since we saw a blizzard.

You deserve this one!  

[Jt17]

Based on what?  

His personal modelology.


.

[weatherpruf]

Just now, wishcast_hater said:

I never watch TV but happened to tune into AccuWeather Channel just now. Bernie Rayo calling for 10-14”.
Very conservative across all forecast areas. Meanwhile TWC calling for 18-24 for NYC. SMH.


.

that's the general forecast on media around here; with more at the shore and long island. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I never watch TV but happened to tune into AccuWeather Channel just now. Bernie Rayo calling for 10-14”.
Very conservative across all forecast areas. Meanwhile TWC calling for 18-24 for NYC. SMH.


.

12-24 is a good call. You dont know where the bands will set up. 

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Reminder   Olympic Hockey Gold Medal Game begins in 10 minutes = Go Team USA ,,,,,,,, now back to our program 

they'll need a miracle; this is canada's national game. they are just better. but its always exciting to see a national team make it to some sort of final.

[donsutherland1]

IMO, the major blizzard remains on track. My thinking of 16"-22" in the City and nearby areas and 18"-24" in parts of Long Island and central NJ with locally higher amounts is unchanged. That the NAM has come to Earth doesn't change things. Were the storm not expect to develop as explosively as expected and were it not to approach or surpass 970 mb, I'd be thinking 12"-18" based on a preponderance of the guidance. However, explosively deepening and super intense storms have very efficient and powerful dynamics that maximize snowfall. Thus, it makes sense to add about a third to the figures one would normally expect.

One saw such a case during February 11-12, 2006. The blizzard's dynamics outran the models and the forecasts. What had been expected to be about a foot of snow in NYC wound up being 26.9". Forecast amounts were increased several times when the blizzard was underway. 

So, at least for now, I'm quite comfortable with my amounts listed above.

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

15 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Where's 1888?

I posted a list of the top 20 all-time on the February observation list. There are  actually 68,  10 inch snow storms in New York City since they started keeping records in 1870. Sarcus was listing just a more current list.

[Stormlover74]

37 and cloudy

[Rjay]

Keep obs in here

[MJO812]