MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Craig Allen's forecast aligns with TWC. I like his forecast although if we get into the banding then all bets are off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Checking in from NC...anyone have a good webcam link to watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I posted this elsewhere but I will put it here also as I am looking for a little insight ,,,,,,,IF the MESOS earlier started to bum people out why would the NWS now increase amounts and issue blizzard warnings for Orange and Duchess counties which are well N n W of NYC ,,,,,,what are the experts looking at ? The HRRR ? something else ? Bueller ? anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just need it to stick everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Moderate snow currently,31/30f. Temps are a tick cooler then was expected,diurnal heating is almost done. Snow is going to pile up fast tonight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Still snowing light to moderate.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, Nibor said: For north and west folks that deform band on the latest HRRR is also modeled on the RAP and FV3. No guarantee but I think that's the back edge of the big totals. It was discussed earlier in the interior thread, but up until the very short term models, most models miss or misalign the northern edge which always ends up another jackpot area. There always seems to be a stronger area of lift right at the area where the strongest precip starts to fade. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 The 18z HRRR beefed up totals several inches for inland areas compared to 12z, which was still great. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 29 minutes ago, Poker2015 said: Wasn't expecting 20" anyway. Anything over 12" will be bonus im shocked they are still 19 for Philly when mets down there are forecasting 8-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 SREF - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The 18z HRRR beefed up totals several inches for inland areas compared to 12z, which was still great. What was it beefed up to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I posted this elsewhere but I will put it here also as I am looking for a little insight ,,,,,,,IF the MESOS earlier started to bum people out why would the NWS now increase amounts and issue blizzard warnings for Orange and Duchess counties which are well N n W of NYC ,,,,,,what are the experts looking at ? The HRRR ? something else ? Bueller ? anyone Ratios is a big part of it. People in here always dismiss them. This will have them up north where you are. And further south and southeast there's more QPF in general to get them to their forecast. And then banding is sure to set up somewhere relentlessly allowing select areas make it to the high ends of their forecast. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Upton upgraded NYC to 17-24 inches. 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Light snow not sticking much except on old snow, Winds really pick up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said: What was it beefed up to? I’ll post once it’s done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 After a few hours of light rain/snow/mix with temps in the 35-36F range, the temp has dropped to 33F over the last hour or so and the snow intensity picked up then and accumulation just started on grass/cars/colder surfaces; paved surfaces might take another hour or so. If you're thinking of heading out now, you might want to reconsider - even if salted roads are ok for a few more hours, visibility is becoming an issue now. Also, here's our starting point for snowfall, as we still have 1-2" of snow/sleet on our property, which admittedly is on the shady side, but damn, that's about 35 days straight with <1" on the ground and that's going to go for at least another 7 days now. Sweet! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 SREF - Awesome!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Big update, the LIRR will be shutting down on many branches this evening. That is the first big change to MTA service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 10 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Checking in from NC...anyone have a good webcam link to watch? https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/usa/new-york/montauk-downtowncircle.html#google_vignette This is Montauk at the very end of Long Island, hasn't started yet but will be cranking later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdog127 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: Awesome! . All just tools for trends not exact qpf or snow totals as the storm is in progeess - go with the actual obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 6 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Just need it to stick everywhere that radar in motion shows the storm beginning to wrap up (fill in, organize & strengthen). Moderate snow over central & southern NJ, Delaware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 All just tools for trends not exact qpf or snow totals as the storm is in progeess - go with the actual obsJust a lot of support from better near term guidance showing the major global models were too east . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Gusts to 70mph... Southern New London-Northeast Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk- 122 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations between 18 and 23 inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph. Isolated gusts up to 70 mph are possible late tonight into early Monday morning. * WHERE...In Connecticut, Southern New London County. In New York, Northeast Suffolk and Southeast Suffolk Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 18z 10:1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22 Author Share Posted February 22 9 minutes ago, BxEngine said: It was discussed earlier in the interior thread, but up until the very short term models, most models miss or misalign the northern edge which always ends up another jackpot area. There always seems to be a stronger area of lift right at the area where the strongest precip starts to fade. There's going to be a big band somewhere just north of you into Sussex County imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Do you happen to have the link for that radar? just right click the image and copy url link paste into your browser https://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Still light snow falling. Not sticking in street with all the salt. Temp down to 29.9F. Kind of glad we haven't had any heavier snow yet. I want my temp to go down to 25-28 so it will be powdery like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 16 minutes ago, Nibor said: For north and west folks that deform band on the latest HRRR is also modeled on the RAP and FV3. No guarantee but I think that's the back edge of the big totals. Looks like a nice path to the Benchmark. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Finally starting to stick and accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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