SnoSki14 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 What amounts did the RAP show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 9 minutes ago, psv88 said: Uptons new warning increased amounts to 17-24” out here… The are looking at the hrrr maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: you in Staten Island? is that even considered NYC? lol I have you guys as the bullseye on my snowmap just across from staten island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Snowing lightly now in Port Jeff Station after a little burst earlier. My few exposed grassy areas and shrubs now re-covered. 33. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 HRRR crusher at 18z. And still going strong at this hour. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: you in Staten Island? is that even considered NYC? lol I have you guys as the bullseye on my snowmap That's where I am! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 From our artificial summary with inputs: HRRR — primary mesoscale driver Best for: Snow band location Snowfall rates (1–3"/hr) Band evolution / pivoting Useful range: 0–12 h (up to ~18 h trend) How to use: latest 1–3 runs only ⚠️ Do not trust storm-total maps HREF — confidence & persistence Best for: Probability a band persists ≥1"/hr rate probabilities Confidence in HRRR signal Useful range: 0–36 h How to use: confirms whether HRRR is real or noisy RAP — temperatures & p-type Best for: Surface temps Rain/snow/sleet/ZR line CAD holding vs breaking Useful range: 0–12 h How to use: hourly temp & wet-bulb trends ❌ Not for QPF or totals NAM 3 km — vertical structure Best for: Warm nose depth Sleet vs freezing rain Soundings & cross-sections Useful range: 6–36 h How to use: diagnose why p-type is changing ⚠️ QPF often too wet 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Unofficially, 1 inch at Central Park. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Hoping HRRR and RAP are right but even there high ends seem to be lower than NWS forecasts. moderate snow - 31 - starting to stick on all surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 HRRR is insane for coastal areas. This is tomorrow morning with hours to go. Look at the eye off the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Starting to snow here. Still have a good 3-6 on the ground still from January. This is getting exciting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 ? Heavier impulses moving through are not real banding, such as in deformation zones, occlusions, warm fronts off the ocean. What is depicted are normal waves moving along. These typically do not make the difference between 12" and 20". Slight variations perhaps. Banding, in my opinion is used too broadly. Technically you are correct and this modestly knowledgeable amateur won’t argue semantics over it. The reality, though, is the strength, placement and evolution of such features, whatever they are called, heavily dictate how much falls where. All this, of course, driven by surface & mid level tracks / dynamics which is all driven by upper level dynamics. Regardless of final outcome it’s fun tracking. Enjoy!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Steady light snow here in Sheepshead Bay. Temp 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nick Gregory is going 18-24 inches for NYC and 24 plus for CNJ Just watched Craig Allen on TV. He states that the low is forming with alot of lighting and dont be shocked to see thundersnow tonight in NJ and NYC/ LI. Hes going 12-18 with 18-24 inches SE of NYC. Pretty much the only two TV meterologists I'd listen to, along with Lee Goldberg but the former two mainly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 For north and west folks that deform band on the latest HRRR is also modeled on the RAP and FV3. No guarantee but I think that's the back edge of the big totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nick Gregory is going 18-24 inches for NYC and 24 plus for CNJ Just watched Craig Allen on TV. He states that the low is forming with alot of lighting and dont be shocked to see thundersnow tonight in NJ and NYC/ LI. Hes going 12-18 with 18-24 inches SE of NYC. Craig Allen's forecast aligns with TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Craig Allen's forecast aligns with TWC. I like his forecast although if we get into the banding then all bets are off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Checking in from NC...anyone have a good webcam link to watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I posted this elsewhere but I will put it here also as I am looking for a little insight ,,,,,,,IF the MESOS earlier started to bum people out why would the NWS now increase amounts and issue blizzard warnings for Orange and Duchess counties which are well N n W of NYC ,,,,,,what are the experts looking at ? The HRRR ? something else ? Bueller ? anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just need it to stick everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Moderate snow currently,31/30f. Temps are a tick cooler then was expected,diurnal heating is almost done. Snow is going to pile up fast tonight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Still snowing light to moderate.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, Nibor said: For north and west folks that deform band on the latest HRRR is also modeled on the RAP and FV3. No guarantee but I think that's the back edge of the big totals. It was discussed earlier in the interior thread, but up until the very short term models, most models miss or misalign the northern edge which always ends up another jackpot area. There always seems to be a stronger area of lift right at the area where the strongest precip starts to fade. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 The 18z HRRR beefed up totals several inches for inland areas compared to 12z, which was still great. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 29 minutes ago, Poker2015 said: Wasn't expecting 20" anyway. Anything over 12" will be bonus im shocked they are still 19 for Philly when mets down there are forecasting 8-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 SREF - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The 18z HRRR beefed up totals several inches for inland areas compared to 12z, which was still great. What was it beefed up to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I posted this elsewhere but I will put it here also as I am looking for a little insight ,,,,,,,IF the MESOS earlier started to bum people out why would the NWS now increase amounts and issue blizzard warnings for Orange and Duchess counties which are well N n W of NYC ,,,,,,what are the experts looking at ? The HRRR ? something else ? Bueller ? anyone Ratios is a big part of it. People in here always dismiss them. This will have them up north where you are. And further south and southeast there's more QPF in general to get them to their forecast. And then banding is sure to set up somewhere relentlessly allowing select areas make it to the high ends of their forecast. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Upton upgraded NYC to 17-24 inches. 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Light snow not sticking much except on old snow, Winds really pick up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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