Is we back? February discussion thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Stat padder probably 

Probably, but could be a decent-sized one.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Probably, but could be a decent-sized one.

Well, we hope.

[EastonSN+]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There will be one more period in March.

Just want it to get to 7 quicker especially for my area by the south coast.

[EastonSN+]

Sharp dip now.

[dendrite]

52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There will be one more period in March.

Hopefully winter hits menopause first

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Don't look now but 6 z Euro has a storm that now clips the Cape 

Yeah, quite a bit closer than 0Z... with GFS going the opposite direction. There will probably be more run that tries to pull everybody in

[HIPPYVALLEY]

There has been about three hours of sun in the past five days.

[Lava Rock]

where's my projected 35" over the next 7 days????

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Sharp dip now.

Yea, I mentioned folks have up on that reversal too quickly...maybe it won't technically get there, but it will be close.

[moneypitmike]

Hopes tor additional snowdays this year are melting faster than the pack in this mild second-half of February sun.

[Layman]

54 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

where's my projected 35" over the next 7 days????

[subdude]

10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Lake Tahoe hasn’t seen a big storm in a while… signs that the pattern is shuffling after a month+ of consistency.

Talked to my son last night he lives and works at Park City. They're finally getting much needed snows. Looks like they'll be getting 18" out of that system that dumped on Tahoe. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

14 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Hopes tor additional snowdays this year are melting faster than the pack in this mild second-half of February sun.

What sun? I’ve forgotten what it looks like.

[Lava Rock]

13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Hopes tor additional snowdays this year are melting faster than the pack in this mild second-half of February sun.

wouldn't be surprised if the season ended in a wimper snowwise. The only saving grace to this season was the big dump on 1/26 and the prolonged cold - great for retention. Best riding season in years. Had it not been for the last good dump and the retention, season would have been very different. This is the time to cash in to build the pack heading into march, but window is starting to close slightly and my interest in big snows start to wane my mid march. We'll see how it shakes out

[40/70 Benchmark]

If I had to choose a winter this reminded me of it would be 2003-2004....impressive cold, but not really one I would care to relive again because there was only one good storm. ...though I got porked in the biggie that season, so this year would rank ahead of it.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I had to choose a winter this reminded me of it would be 2003-2004....impressive cold, but not really one I would care to relive again because there was only one really good storm. ...though I got porked in the biggie that season, so this year would rank ahead of it.

This season had far better snowpack retention too because December 2003 turned torchy about 8-10 days after the big dog and everything got wiped out before Xmas. January 2004 had good "pack" retention, but calling it a pack is stretching it....it was a few inches of sand. 

Still think we can get another big storm.  2004 tried and sort of failed on 3/16....moderate storm but left some on the table. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Its interesting how many houses in this area are still 100% snowcovered with a decent amount... with little snow since the bigger event

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This season had far better snowpack retention too because December 2003 turned torchy about 8-10 days after the big dog and everything got wiped out before Xmas. January 2004 had good "pack" retention, but calling it a pack is stretching it....it was a few inches of sand. 

Still think we can get another big storm.  2004 tried and sort of failed on 3/16....moderate storm but left some on the table. 

Agree.

Yea, I would rank this ahead of 2003-2004, but kind of similar tendencies. Yea, that December 5th event got wiped that year.

[BrianW]

This deep snow really helped preserve lawns around here. Pretty incredible how green my lawn is under the snow. 

 

 

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, BrianW said:

This deep snow really helped preserve lawns around here. Pretty incredible how green my lawn is under the snow. 

 

 

Looks like you got some spring cleanup up to do eventually. No matter how leave free I get my lawn in November, by Spring I have leaves and sticks to clean up.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I had to choose a winter this reminded me of it would be 2003-2004....impressive cold, but not really one I would care to relive again because there was only one good storm. ...though I got porked in the biggie that season, so this year would rank ahead of it.

Two good storms here, 24" and 13.2", but by Dec 15 we'd gotten 51% of the snow season total, which was about 15" BN.  January did have our coldest afternoon highs since Fort Kent on 14-15, with -11 and -8, and a stiff breeze.  (The -11 was spoiled by the -7 at my previous evening's observations.)

where's my projected 35" over the next 7 days????

Maybe move the decimal point one space to the left?

[Lava Rock]

Torch! 47F

[rimetree]

Yeah, 47F here too...warmest since Jan 15. Hoping those cutters get muted toward first week of March. Skiing that week at Saddleback. Let's keep it cold at least until second week.

[Ginx snewx]

[klw]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I had to choose a winter this reminded me of it would be 2003-2004....impressive cold, but not really one I would care to relive again because there was only one good storm. ...though I got porked in the biggie that season, so this year would rank ahead of it.

The snow at the Mansfield stake has tracked 03-04 pretty closely so far.

https://matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/

[NoCORH4L]

I think we can add 2 things to the Fraud Five: coastals that hit the whole region, and run of the mill SWFEs that hit the whole region.  Those SWFEs that set up a front along 495/pike/84 with rain SE of that line and 10" of pork snow on the NW side. Used to be so common place 20 years ago.

[Typhoon Tip]

Don't believe the stratosphere's been very well correlated beyond coincidence this season and that will remain that way through spring.

We may in fact cool down/endure another cold loading into the continent, either way.  So it's moot.  The EPO is pretty clearly trying to dip neggie for about 3-5 day span - new index indication that's materialized over these recent last three days of prognostics. 

When/if so, I don't think keeping the cold W in -EPOs is our problem, not with the flow finding least excuse imagined to consummately speed up, if not speed up ...stretch wave lengths.  One of those two appears to always exert ... since about 2010 ( actually, I argue the traces of that begin in the super NINO of 1998   but different discussion). So yeah...the early notions of busting out after the 24th (miss?) are probably going to have to be a roll-back on that idea. 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

I think we can add 2 things to the Fraud Five: coastals that hit the whole region, and run of the mill SWFEs that hit the whole region.  Those SWFEs that set up a front along 495/pike/84 with rain SE of that line and 10" of pork snow on the NW side. Used to be so common place 20 years ago.

Just add 'the models' to the list and be done with it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Don't believe the stratosphere's been very well correlated beyond coincidence this season and that will remain that way through spring.

We may in fact cool down/endure another cold loading into the continent, either way.  So it's moot.  The EPO is pretty clearly trying to dip neggie for about 3-5 day span - new index indication that's materialized over these recent last three days of prognostics. 

When/if so, I don't think keeping the cold W in -EPOs is our problem, not with the flow finding least excuse imagined to consummately speed up, if not speed up ...stretch wave lengths.  One of those two appears to always exert ... since about 2010 ( actually, I argue the traces of that begin in the super NINO of 1998   but different discussion). So yeah...the early notions of busting out after the 24th (miss?) are probably going to have to be a roll-back on that idea. 

I find it awfully hard to believe that that January +TNH pattern has nothing to do with the stratosphere/high solar overlay. I used all of that data to predict that to the day late last fall. Like the CC gradient, there is peer reviewed research that I reviewed.