Is we back? February discussion thread

[78Blizzard]

This is the 3rd crack at this by the Euro.  It lost it twice.  Is the 3rd time the charm?

[MJO812]

Eps has a nice coastal

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

this place gives me whiplash

We need an Amex ensemble. 

[MJO812]

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, dendrite said:

We need an Amex ensemble. 

prob be 33 and R/S everyday if you smooth it out

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

weenievista at it again. wxbell is like 2-5 mean for that period. But still a huge improvement from 00Z so thats all that matters

[mahk_webstah]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS and AI ensembles have a fairly good signal

too. But this is almost 8 days out.

Yes but there’s been a general signal on and off for a while, and doesn’t it make sense synoptically?

[Baroclinic Zone]

59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

So overnight was doom and gloom….this flips the other way. Been terrible model consistency (including ensembles…we expect OPs to jump a lot) in the medium range since late January. 

Why I’ve largely ignored anything until within 72hrs.

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

I wonder when the time will come when we can accurately predict snowfall amounts seven plus days out. I know that we have had storms that were easier to predict than others but it seems like recently we still can't figure out snow totals for a storm even 24 hours in advance. I wonder if AI will change that?

[mahk_webstah]

17 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Who cares

Madeline Kahn blazing saddles “ i’ve seen thousands of men again and again…always going and coming and coming and going…and always too soon, right girls?”

just like our storms

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

I wonder when the time will come when we can accurately predict snowfall amounts seven plus days out. I know that we have had storms that were easier to predict than others but it seems like recently we still can't figure out snow totals for a storm even 24 hours in advance. I wonder if AI will change that?

We can’t even measure them accurately 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We can’t even measure them accurately 

That's true. Don't get me wrong, forecasts have improved enormously over the years but still far from perfect. You would think they would keep improving but it seems like performance plateaued a while ago. We haven't improved much at all in the past ten years. I've heard that they predicted the 1993 storm of the century like a week out but obviously that was an exception in those days.

[ORH_wxman]

Plenty of spread but def a lot more potent than yesterday

[Great Snow 1717]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We can’t even measure them accurately 

Billerica proved that lol

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Plenty of spread but def a lot more potent than yesterday

Those southern and eastern outliers have the mean further SE than would otherwise be the case.

[ORH_wxman]

Pretty snowy EPS run overall. Has more chances after the 16th too. Mean is double digits across a lot of New England. It’s not a frigid pattern but it’s just not submitting to the classic Feb Niña torch idea that has been an instinct to gravitate towards for many of us Mets. 

It’s a real struggle to get sustained large positive departures on these runs. You’ll see a run or two that starts to look like that but then it disappears the next run or even on the same run it can’t last more than a day or two. The in-situ blocking seems to dominate us locally while the plains have an easier time getting big warmth. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We can’t even measure them accurately 

We can... but it doesn't mean "We do"

[WinterWolf]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty snowy EPS run overall. Has more chances after the 16th too. Mean is double digits across a lot of New England. It’s not a frigid pattern but it’s just not submitting to the classic Feb Niña torch idea that has been an instinct to gravitate towards for many of us Mets. 

It’s a real struggle to get sustained large positive departures on these runs. You’ll see a run or two that starts to look like that but then it disappears the next run or even on the same run it can’t last more than a day or two. The in-situ blocking seems to dominate us locally while the plains have an easier time getting big warmth. 

It’s the theme of the winter…she wants to freeze/be cold. Sometimes that’s how it goes. 

[kdxken]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s the theme of the winter…she wants to freeze/be cold. Sometimes that’s how it goes. 

Hot off the press.

 

[Cold Miser]

Embracing winter with a nice woods & water walk, snow shoeing on and around the lake.

 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, Cold Miser said:

Embracing winter with a nice woods & water walk, snow shoeing on and around the lake.

 

enjoy Lava Lake, i know that thing has burned you countless times over but not this season

[kdxken]

59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Plenty of spread but def a lot more potent than yesterday

 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Hot off the press.

 

Notice how the shades get lighter as you go closer to northeast coast. Not even sure it will be AN there. Under 50% probability. My guess is it will technically come in AN but not by much. Bush league torch. 
 

 

[dendrite]

45 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We can... but it doesn't mean "We do"

Well snow measuring is an inexact science and probably the most difficult variable we routinely measure. It’s difficult to standardize measurements. And yeah, human error can really increase the errors as well. 

[Snowcrazed71]

10 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

I guess we will see. Thanks for your input.

[Modfan2]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Notice how the shades get lighter as you go closer to northeast coast. Not even sure it will be AN there. Under 50% probability. My guess is it will technically come in AN but not by much. Bush league torch. 
 

 

I mean at this point 40-45F will feel like a torch! 

[crownweather]

1 hour ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

That's true. Don't get me wrong, forecasts have improved enormously over the years but still far from perfect. You would think they would keep improving but it seems like performance plateaued a while ago. We haven't improved much at all in the past ten years. I've heard that they predicted the 1993 storm of the century like a week out but obviously that was an exception in those days.

I was a NWS student intern during the blizzard of 1993 & all we had in our local NWS office was the LFM model (48 hour model), the NGM model (48 hour model), the AVN model (I think was a 60 hour model) & the MRF model (which only went out 5 days).  The MRF model started showing the potential for a major winter storm on the Tuesday before the storm.  So, that was about 3 or so days of warning for a historic blizzard  which in those days was quite good.    

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I mean at this point 40-45F will feel like a torch! 

Yes it will. Even a week of normal temps will feel very warm considering the last 3 weeks. 

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I guess we will see. Thanks for your input.

He’s become a poster of other folks output. A “Repost-err!.” 

[WinterWolf]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Notice how the shades get lighter as you go closer to northeast coast. Not even sure it will be AN there. Under 50% probability. My guess is it will technically come in AN but not by much. Bush league torch. 
 

 

We’ve been saying this for quite sometime.