February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

The median increased also! 

[psuhoffman]

You don’t see the setup this clear on an ensemble this far out often. 

The crazy thing is the blocking is all that makes this work. Similar to Feb 2010, the pacific longwave pattern would normally scream huge SER but the displaced TPV and 50/50 there won’t allow it. The fight between the attempt to ridge in front of the approaching wave and the blocked in cold is what will create the threat.  We’ve got snowstorms from this exact setup many times. 

[mitchnick]

How did the AI Eps look before the storm last Sunday?

[poolz1]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The median increased also! 

yea, but the real question is what is your 3 model average?

[psuhoffman]

Just now, mitchnick said:

How did the AI Eps look before the storm last Sunday?

At this range it was teasing us. But this is not the same situation or setup. It’s more similar to the Jan 25 storm and the AI did very well with that. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You don’t see the setup this clear on an ensemble this far out often. 

The crazy thing is the blocking is all that makes this work. Similar to Feb 2010, the pacific longwave pattern would normally scream huge SER but the displaced TPV and 50/50 there won’t allow it. The fight between the attempt to ridge in front of the approaching wave and the blocked in cold is what will create the threat.  We’ve got snowstorms from this exact setup many times. 

And this general look is now within 10 days, lowering the chances of yet another rug. Can still lose it, but the idea of a wave undercutting the decaying block has been on the ensembles for at least a few days now. 

[psuhoffman]

@mitchnick but at this range I’m not married to any idea. I think this is a legit threat but we need to get closer to 100 hours before I’ll even try to get specific about it. And even then know further adjustments will happen. We’re still in the “this is interesting I’ll keep an eye on it” range. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And this general look is now within 10 days, lowering the chances of yet another rug. Can still lose it, but the idea of a wave undercutting the decaying block has been on the ensembles for at least a few days now. 

Yea I think the idea is legit. But where the snow zone ends up, whether this ends up one stronger wave or multiple weaker boundary waves…major details that determine whose backyards get snow won’t be known for a while. But I agree confidence is increasing in the general flavor of the period. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

yea, but the real question is what is your 3 model average?

lol 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@mitchnick but at this range I’m not married to any idea. I think this is a legit threat but we need to get closer to 100 hours before I’ll even try to get specific about it. And even then know further adjustments will happen. We’re still in the “this is interesting I’ll keep an eye on it” range. 

Got it. With the Pacific seemingly opening up, the models are going to have their hands full with vorts shooting all over the Conus, so I  have low confidence in any model, moreso than usual.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Got it. With the Pacific seemingly opening up, the models are going to have their hands full with vorts shooting all over the Conus, so I  have low confidence in any model, moreso than usual.

The biggest issue I think the guidance has to resolve is how consolidated the pacific energy ends up. Guidance is split between multiple weaker wave solutions and two wave (lead weak wave followed by a more amplified follow up) solution. There are ways we could “win” in either permutation but until it’s known which we are dealing with the details can’t be known. 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The biggest issue I think the guidance has to resolve is how consolidated the pacific energy ends up. Guidance is split between multiple weaker wave solutions and two wave (lead weak wave followed by a more amplified follow up) solution. There are ways we could “win” in either permutation but until it’s known which we are dealing with the details can’t be known. 

Wolud you agree that the split between guidance is either a low risk, low reward solution (multiple weak waves) vs. a high risk, high reward solution (amplified follow up)? Or is that an improper, inaccurate way to word it?

[stormtracker]

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

AIFS EPS still very interested.  Save yourselves time and don’t look at op runs past 100 hours.  Not saying this is going to happen. There is uncertainty even among the various ensembles.  But worrying about the op runs at this range will just add confusion and noise. 

So you're saying it's gonna happen.  Cool.  You can start the thread,

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Wolud you agree that the split between guidance is either a low risk, low reward solution (multiple weak waves) vs. a high risk, high reward solution (amplified follow up)? Or is that an improper, inaccurate way to word it?

I think that’s accurate. There are more ways to get some snow from a multiple wave solution but less chance of a huge storm. A more amplified wave introduces a MECS+ potential but a total fail if that one wave misses. 
 

I’ll take my chances with an amped up monster storm. Another 3-4” of snow won’t change my opinion of this winter at all.  But a 10”+ storm definitely would.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

So you're saying it's gonna happen.  Cool.  You can start the thread,

Sure…

I know you’re kidding but it couldn’t fail worse than that last thread did lol 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sure…

I know you’re kidding but it couldn’t fail worse than that last thread did lol 

NOTHING can fail worse than that thread,  Probably the worst thread since I've been on these here boards.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

Seems like the general trend across guidance today is the push back of the cold air next week quicker and stronger against that ridging.  

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sure…

I know you’re kidding but it couldn’t fail worse than that last thread did lol 

 

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

NOTHING can fail worse than that thread,  Probably the worst thread since I've been on these here boards.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

Seems like the general trend across guidance today is the push back of the cold air next week quicker and stronger against that ridging.  

I’m also not buying the post PD warmup.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Thinking about taking away your pension and bennies for that disaster.

[WxUSAF]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Thinking about taking away your pension and bennies for that disaster.

I’ll try harder next time boss. I’ll make a torch thread in July or something. Can’t miss!

[stormtracker]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

I’ll try harder next time boss. I’ll make a torch thread in July or something. Can’t miss!

Bring this storm home and you'll be redeemed.  I'll give you @mappy's raise.

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I’m also not buying the post PD warmup.

I'm so glad we have you onboard now.

[SnowenOutThere]

51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You don’t see the setup this clear on an ensemble this far out often. 

The crazy thing is the blocking is all that makes this work. Similar to Feb 2010, the pacific longwave pattern would normally scream huge SER but the displaced TPV and 50/50 there won’t allow it. The fight between the attempt to ridge in front of the approaching wave and the blocked in cold is what will create the threat.  We’ve got snowstorms from this exact setup many times. 

This setup reminds me a good bit of our last storm (not the NC blizzard). While I've been very vocal about how that specific storm was extremely frustrating I'd take the setup time and time again as we had everything going for it on the large scale! 

[wxdude64]

32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Hey, don't get too upset, I got 0.3 out of it. 

[WesternFringe]

18 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Hey, don't get too upset, I got 0.3 out of it. 

Same here!

[Jake Wx]

3 hours ago, GreyHat said:

I'm talking about the around 17. AIEuro, AIGFS and Euro, the 850mb are warm for that period too, the 700mb is cold but the warm air aloft will hurt.

i was jus saying in general, upper air wont be to supportive. Surface wont torch to much

[Jebman]

This month is gonnabe VERY interesting in the Mid Atlantic.