February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

3 of Baltimores 17 biggest snowstorms came in March. Baltimore has had snows of 22”, 16” and 13” in March.  And 2 years ago I ran the numbers and showed that Baltimores odds of getting a 4”, 8” and 12” Storm peak the first week of February but then only decrease slightly until you get to the 3rd week of March when they drop off a cliff.  

You say this every year. Every single year. And one proven it’s false like 3 times and you still say it. Why?  
 

 

Notice I just said February this time. I'm talking from PD-end of February we have never gotten a big snow. We've gotten a couple smaller ones though as you have pointed out. I did not say it was impossible to get a big snow in March...I just don't like relying on March for that because it's so rare and hard to do.

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I’m not a SSW expert, just relaying info from mets on Philly discord. We generally thaw during SSWs, which makes sense since a thaw is now showing up on the modeling over the next 10+ days coinciding with the SSW

Account for the normal lag effect from a SSW we’re probably below normal or normal temps near beginning of March.

A March 2018 is possible. If we could start the cycle a week earlier and get a little more luck in our area could be good. That month was so so so close to epic and we got about as unlucky as possible to only get one decent snow that month. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I just don't like relying on March for that because it's so rare and hard to do.

I've brought this up before, if we're hoping for March to "save" us it usually ends in disappointment.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

I've brought this up before, if we're hoping for March to "save" us it usually ends in disappointment.

Look at the EPS from today that i just posted… we punt for maybe 4 days, lol!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A March 2018 is possible. If we could start the cycle a week earlier and get a little more luck in our area could be good. That month was so so so close to epic and we got about as unlucky as possible to only get one decent snow that month. 

Exactly.  And I'll even mention another year that I'd take any day of the week...the first part of March 2015.  We got a minor ice event around the 2nd, and then got a nicely timed wave right after a cold front passed that dumped 6-8" or so snow on us on the 5th.  And it was COLD then too (for March), as well as daytime snow.  Or for that matter, I'd take anytime in March 2014 of course.  There's so much tendency in here to wave off March snow as a waste.

[Terpeast]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Look at the EPS from today that i just posted… we punt for maybe 4 days, lol!

It does show some undercutting energy that could give us a mixed event or moderate snow if we could hold onto enough cold. Early for details, but it’s not a total shutout

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Look at the EPS from today that i just posted… we punt for maybe 4 days, lol!

This isn't me punting to March, I'm just commenting on March's track record.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I've brought this up before, if we're hoping for March to "save" us it usually ends in disappointment.

I'm not hoping for March to "save" us, but I sure as hell would be all in for a solid March event if we were to get one.  And come on people, it's Feb. 1 for God's sake!  It seems we have some people already writing off the ENTIRE month!!  Again, I'm not saying we'll have an epic February (likely not), but geez, if we get a good event or maybe two (doesn't have to be a HECS), then have something in March, that's a HUGE win in my book.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Notice I just said February this time. I'm talking from PD-end of February we have never gotten a big snow. I did not say it was impossible to get a big snow in March...I just don't like relying on March for that because it's so rare and hard to do.

PD is a different date each year. Baltimore had a top 20 snow on Feb 19th. That’s layer than PD 90% of the time. So now we’re just talking 8 days?  Yes there hasn’t been a too 20 event from Feb 20-28. But there have been big snows after that. It’s a fluke. If anything it means we’re due to get a storm that week!  
 

There are so many weeks without a top 20 snowstorm. They are so rare and some weeks have 3 of them meaning there are many weeks with none. The last week of December. The first week of January. January 9-21 have none!  Why don’t you obsess about those?  
 

you do this with lots of things. You seem to try to assign meaning to randomness. The fact a super rare event hasn’t happened in the 140 years of records that one week is just a product of random chance.  There are several other weeks without a big snow and I promise you if we had records that went back far enough you’d see that storms can happen those weeks and this is just random chance over a limited period of time. 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I've brought this up before, if we're hoping for March to "save" us it usually ends in disappointment.

90% of our winters end in disappointment. March snow has nothing to do with it.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

90% of our winters end in disappointment. March snow has nothing to do with it.  

Save is relative. It can mean anything from saving us from falling short of climo to saving us from making the futility list.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 12z AI EPS is similar to the regular EPS. Temporary ridging this run in the east starting around the 10th, but by the 14th, we are back to a workable look.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are so many weeks without a top 20 snowstorm. They are so rare and some weeks have 3 of them meaning there are many weeks with none. The last week of December. The first week of January. January 9-21 have none!  Why don’t you obsess about those?  

Expounding on this part of your post:  Why would anyone necessarily somehow think (if they are) that we MUST have a "top 20" snowstorm sometime this month?  I mean seriously.  What if hypothetically we have a somewhat colder than normal month overall and get a couple of good warning-level events, with more potential on the table for another similar event in March?  That's supposed to be a "fail" somehow???  I just don't get it.

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z AI EPS is similar to the regular EPS. Temporary ridging this run in the east starting around the 10th, but by the 14th, we are back to a workable look.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

12z AI EPS stays workable on the 15th & the run ends with more transience.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

90% of our winters end in disappointment. March snow has nothing to do with it.  

Disappointment (at least to me) is like the winter of 2022-23.  One blast of Arctic air around Christmas that moderated dramatically shortly after (and no snow here).  Absolutely ZERO snow in December or January.  All of 0.5" the first part of February that was gone before noon.  And a bit of snow-TV sometime around the end of February or early March.  Nearly a torch gate to gate, there were even still some bugs out I recall!  Nothing really at all to track the entire season.  Now THAT is a freaking fail of a winter right there.  That year tops my futility list, more so than something like 2011-12 or 2016-17.

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Disappointment (at least to me) is like the winter of 2022-23.  One blast of Arctic air around Christmas that moderated dramatically shortly after (and no snow here).  Absolutely ZERO snow in December or January.  All of 0.5" the first part of February that was gone before noon.  And a bit of snow-TV sometime around the end of February or early March.  Nearly a torch gate to gate, there were even still some bugs out I recall!  Nothing really at all to track the entire season.  Now THAT is a freaking fail of a winter right there.  That year tops my futility list, more so than something like 2011-12 or 2016-17.

23-24 could count too due to the spectacular failure of the epic blocking.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

 

Look at the flow. Canadian air is cutoff. We "might" be a bit BN in temps post frontal passage, but in mid-Feb that's cutting it real close in these parts.

Hopefully, the Gefs is right. I don't have much hope in that but that's a better outcome than those maps imho. 

Moreover, the only precip of consequence on the Eps is a frontal passage around 306 hrs. You can see that on this link if you run it through the entire 12z run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2026020112&fh=24

This is why I effin' hate counting on long range ensembles as I worried in a post this morning. Among other things, they can change in a couple runs just like operational models and are only good until the next run.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

23-24 could count too due to the spectacular failure of the epic blocking.

I would certainly agree with you concerning February 2024 simply because it was hyped so much.  For a couple of weeks before that, all these extended ensembles and weeklies were showing an epic pattern through the entire month of February (and into March).  Like I recall literally day after day people talking about it.  Then it flipped to showing the opposite as we got into February and that month just sucked.  BUT...I will disagree with you that 2023-24 was on the level of 2022-23 simply because we got a couple of decent events within a week around Jan. 15, and we had some legit cold for a period.  We even got a coating in December 2023, for the first time in any December in some years.  In 2022-23, there was literally NOTHING and it was very warm throughout; the only "exciting" thing that season was the Arctic blast around Christmas that didn't give us anything but 2-3 cold days.

[nw baltimore wx]

I’m happy with the possibility of a couple of minor refreshers this week, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see something more substantial pop up as we get closer to when the current pattern starts to relax. 

[Kmlwx]

44 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And btw, the pattern we just had really delivered. We just didn’t have all of the luck on our side. Could just as easily have had 2 blizzards in one week, so if I see Jan 2026 analog again, I’ll by honking loudly about it.

People have mentioned it before - but it's pretty clear to me that a lot of folks just use analogs totally wrong. I think the red taggers and the veteran snow trackers (psuhoffman and others) use them *correctly* 

Too many people see an analog date for big snow and assume big snow is "likely" and on the flip side - somebody will see a Boxing Day analog and get spooked. 

We should use analogs for large scale patterns NOT end results. It should go without saying that an analog is never going to be a 1:1 match down to every last detail. And in an atmosphere where one tiny change can have a big impact...even a 99% analog could go a completely different way in the end. 

Long way of saying yes - if I see Jan 2026 in the future analogs in future years - I will absolutely roll the dice with that. 

[Climate175]

45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A March 2018 is possible. If we could start the cycle a week earlier and get a little more luck in our area could be good. That month was so so so close to epic and we got about as unlucky as possible to only get one decent snow that month. 

That March 2014 St. Patrick’s Day snowstorm was a good one. Not common, but when it happened, quite a sight.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Look at the flow. Canadian air is cutoff. We "might" be a bit BN in temps post frontal passage, but in mid-Feb that's cutting it real close in these parts.

Hopefully, the Gefs is right. I don't have much hope in that but that's a better outcome than those maps imho. 

Moreover, the only precip of consequence on the Eps is a frontal passage around 306 hrs. You can see that on this link if you run it through the entire 12z run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2026020112&fh=24

This is why I effin' hate counting on long range ensembles as I worried in a post this morning. Among other things, they can change in a couple runs just like operational models and are only good until the next run.

Meh...I'd rather see this than nonstop Pac Puke the entire month.  At least could give us some element of decent chances.  I wouldn't take an ensemble QPF amount at face value.  Could it end up just being cold/dry following cold fronts from cutters?  Sure.  But the ensembles are smoothed, and we could also end up with a nicely timed wave with cold air around and get a good event.  You wouldn't have a snowball's chance in hell (literally) of even that with a Pac Puke look.

ETA:  Apologies if that came off a bit confrontational or like finger-pointing at you.  Just that the "mood" in here really gets annoying at times, with some people damn near writing off an entire month, etc., or thinking that if we don't get a "big" event (HECS-like) then it's all crap and a waste.  I suspect that if we had gotten some decent or better snow from the thing this weekend, the mood in here would be a LOT better and more positive, and people would be looking forward to whatever we might be able to get in February, with the ensembles showing exactly what they do now.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

17 minutes ago, Climate175 said:

That March 2014 St. Patrick’s Day snowstorm was a good one. Not common, but when it happened, quite a sight.

That event was really cool, in what was a remarkably snowy March in an amazing winter!!  (I got 5.3" on March 2, 8.0" for that St. Pat's snow, another 3" on the 25th, and even a couple tenths right near the end of the month on the backside of some rain).

[Climate175]

52 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’m happy with the possibility of a couple of minor refreshers this week, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see something more substantial pop up as we get closer to when the current pattern starts to relax. 

It looks like after the clipper system this coming week, the next storm signal would be around Feb 10th-12th. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z GFS Ai has an interesting look out in fantasy land on PD weekend.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 18z GFS Ai has an interesting look out in fantasy land on PD weekend.

Surface is intriguing as well…

[IronTy]

I'm ready for a thaw.  Spent the weekend at the house in DC and it's a nightmare on the streets.  Parking is impossible, walking is a PITA, it's freaking cold too.  Worst of all for some reason all the dog owners seem to have decided that the snow is an excuse not to clean up their dog shit.   It's all over everything.  I hope the patties all dry out before the snow melts because otherwise it's gonna be a smelly, messy situation.