February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[JakkelWx]

Almost a full reversal

[Imgoinhungry]

GFS actually decent.  Looks almost sameish..maybe a tad wetter

Looks a tad drier to me. And it is the preschool model. Looking forward to euro run.


.

[GreyHat]

25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS actually decent.  Looks almost sameish..maybe a tad wetter

The 18z AIGFS says what QPF.

[Ji]

27 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS actually decent.  Looks almost sameish..maybe a tad wetter

its drier but okay

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

So you are saying we will have 2 disaster Ninos in a row? I feel like next year will be colder than 23/24. When was the last time we had two disasters in a row?

We had 1992, 1995 and 1998 back to back to back ninos

remember prior to 2003 people thought Nino was bad for snow.  

1973 and 1977 were lackluster snowfall ninos but 77 was for very different reasons. 
 

Ninos can be our absolute best winters but not all are good. 
 

 

[Ji]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

We had 1992 and 1995 back to back ninos 

1995 had a almost blizzard in Feb i remember. It wasnt that bad of a winter and we would probably take that now in a heartbeat. 91-92 was terrible

[snowfan]

All in for a spicy wed morning commute.

 

[Ji]

the AI GFS seems like a garbage model right now. Did they release it too early? What happened to our noreaster it had yesterday

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Ji said:

1995 had a almost blizzard in Feb i remember. It wasnt that bad of a winter and we would probably take that now in a heartbeat. 91-92 was terrible

You probably have more snow now than you had that whole winter.  And 1992/1995/1998 were 3 dreg ninos in a row. 
 

Im not predicting anything but Im also not putting all my eggs into just waiting on Nino to save us 

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS actually decent.  Looks almost sameish..maybe a tad wetter

I remember the old days when storms to our south moved north/northeast and precipitation blossomed as the storm moved north/northeast. Wtf is going on around here? (rhetorical...please no responses because I'll only get more infuriated!) Lol

[87storms]

Just saw people ice skating on a pond in Baker Park.  The cold this winter is legit.  Now we just need the gulf to become a regular contributor.

[psuhoffman]

@Ji in my adult life we’ve had 4 unquestioned A+ snowfall winters. 2 of the 4 were ninos. 
 

In the last 20 years that I’ve lived up here I’ve had 8 winters that I’d classify as a A snowfall Winter, over 35”, and 3 of the 8 weren’t ninos and 2 were Nina’s. Yes all things considered I’d prefer a Nino. But it’s not as extreme as some are making it.  People are using recency bias. But imo the pdo has been the issue not Nina. 

[Terpeast]

-PDO relatively pedestrian and close to neutral

[psuhoffman]

48 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Almost a full reversal

The -AO is going to run the table. This has all the  characteristics of a year with a wall to wall -AO. Do we cash in wrt snow…stay tuned but we have the snowier half of snow climo left to go!  
 

But of course we will have to listen to the insufferable jack asses who complain that the sun melts snow after Feb 10 so we should just toss the last 40% of our snow climo because it melts faster. 

[bncho]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

-PDO relatively pedestrian and close to neutral

If I could get a +PDO Nino I’d take my chances with that, but there’s no denying that the upcoming February pattern is damn good. I’d take it any day of the week.

[87storms]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I remember the old days when storms to our south moved north/northeast and precipitation blossomed as the storm moved north/northeast. Wtf is going on around here? (rhetorical...please no responses because I'll only get more infuriated!) Lol

If it makes you feel any better, in and around Charlotte is now reporting up to 8"+ of snow.

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

If it makes you feel any better, in and around Charlotte is now reporting up to 8"+ of snow.

Thank God. No offense to us up here, but I forecasted that last night. We love verification. Now, let’s try to get a little refresher this coming week and then track big dog potential after the 9th. 

[87storms]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Thank God. No offense to us up here, but I forecasted that last night. We love verification. Now, let’s try to get a little refresher this coming week and then track big dog potential after the 9th. 

Nice!  Looks like they got a flush hit from the ULL, though Raleigh seems to be getting snookered.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

@psuhoffman

correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t a +qbo Nino better than a -qbo Nino? I don’t see anything that would suggest a -qbo next year, could you provide some insight into what you’re seeing?

We are likely to have a +QBO next winter. The better ninos, 1987, 2003, 2010, 2015 were all -QBO.  Not every +QBO was bad. We had some decent ones. 1988 and 2016 were ok +QBO ninos. But we’ve not had a blockbuster cold wall to wall +QBO Nino winter 

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, 87storms said:

If it makes you feel any better, in and around Charlotte is now reporting up to 8"+ of snow.

<JI>Old news<JI>

[Terpeast]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We are likely to have a +QBO next winter. The better ninos, 1987, 2003, 2010, 2015 were all -QBO.  Not every +QBO was bad. We had some decent ones. 1988 and 2016 were ok +QBO ninos. But we’ve not had a blockbuster cold wall to wall +QBO Nino winter 

16 years between 1987 and 2003, yikes! Thank goodness we had 1995-96.

[caviman2201]

AIFS just got on board for around an inch Wed

[T. August]

OP Euro juiced up a little too. Still waiting on maps but could be 1-2”.

edit: an inch, but better than 12z

[Maestrobjwa]

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We are likely to have a +QBO next winter. The better ninos, 1987, 2003, 2010, 2015 were all -QBO.  Not every +QBO was bad. We had some decent ones. 1988 and 2016 were ok +QBO ninos. But we’ve not had a blockbuster cold wall to wall +QBO Nino winter 

How about the Ninos in the late 70s?  And man...I'd love to finally have a Niño work out again--hopefully next year can do well despite the +QBO

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s not a Nino. Pack it up. Better luck next year. 

Funny 5 people laughed at this while sitting in an abysmal decade of suck. Whatever. 

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

16 years between 1987 and 2003, yikes! Thank goodness we had 1995-96.

It wasn’t the best period (unfavorable NAO and PDO combo) but not as bad as recent run!  1988 was solid. 1990 great first 1/3. 1993 and 1994 were really nice winters not far NW of 95. 96 of course then Jan 2000. It wasn’t quite the sustained dreg of the recent stretch.  But ya far from glory days. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

So hypothetically how bad would a +QBO Niño be? 23-24 adjacent or a full blown snowless torch?

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Funny 5 people laughed at this while sitting in an abysmal decade of suck. Whatever. 

But jokes aside why are you attributing our issues with enso. During the recent snow drought we’ve had 4 Nina’s. 3 neutrals and 2 ninos. And the snow results have been equally atrocious across them all for the most part. Arguably the closest we came to a good winter was 2021 which was a Nina but it was slightly too warm in DC. I got 50” here while 95 was getting 36 degree perfect track rainstorms all winter.  But the issue wasn’t dry that winter!  
 

I don’t think enso had been our issue. Yes overall ninos are better and give us the best chance of a blockbuster winter. But it’s not as simple as Nino good everything else suck. We can have bad ninos and snowy Nina’s.  The record -PDO the last 7 years was the bigger issue not enso. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So hypothetically how bad would a +QBO Niño be? 23-24 adjacent or a full blown snowless torch?

That would depend on other factors. AO being the most important.  Type of Nino. If we get a +AO east based +QBO winter we might be looking at a 1992 1995 type disaster but it’s too soon to know that yet. I’m not predicting doom and gloom. We have Chuck for that. I’m just saying don’t assume the rest of this winter is going to suck and don’t assume next year will be good. 

[Amped]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

Don’t be a weenie dude. Euro 15 days out lol?

The February 15th-March 15th will be rocking.