January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage OBS Thread!

[H2O]

NGL it does make me irrationally mad to see snow still in places or changing back while I get a dumping of sky slurpee

Why the fuck does the warm nose always get to MBY and stay. Sigh. Rant over. Sorry. Haven’t had coffee yet

[DanTheMan]

Heavy Sleet. Had ~4” on the ground before changeover 

[clueless]

Storm insists to stay snow.  Crazy.  

[H2O]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Aleet! It’s sleet. And it’s better than rain in Georgetown. 

Those poor bastards 

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

There is an underrated aspect to sleet, and it’s a lot better than freezing rain. 

Like I said before, the sleet storm we got in 2017ish blew me away and turned me onto sleet. When I watched a car literally turn into a see-saw trying to back up over a plowed sleet pile, and watched how cool sleet accumulation looks, I was 100% sold.

It also helps I live in a neighborhood that shovels for me with a local contractor. So I don't have to shovel it myself lol.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4.5" on the ground as of ~7AM or so this morning when I went out for a Jebwalk with the camera.  Already more than what the NAM was showing for the entire event even with sleet (take that, NAM!! ).  Very cold of course, but not that breezy.  Had to cut the walk a bit short because taking my gloves off occasionally to take photos, my hands damn near froze!

[bsperlin]

For the record: 4.75" total snow/sleet at 7:30, 4 mi south of the Alexandria beltway. All sleet at 8:10.

[SnowtoRain]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Still all snow here. Just cleaned the front steps off with the leaf blower before it gets sleety. Right at 5" now.

Mostly sleet in Easton now. 4.5" of snow.

[Scraff]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

If we can hold back the sleet until ~10am, it's going to be damn close.  Past 10am and 8"+ is a near-lock.

Can someone eyeball measure this for me. I can’t reach it from my couch. 

[jlewis1111]

so which model was most accurate?

[yoda]

Ripping sleet

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

4.5" on the ground as of ~7AM or so this morning when I went out for a Jebwalk with the camera.  Already more than what the NAM was showing for the entire event even with sleet (take that, NAM!! ).  Very cold of course, but not that breezy.  Had to cut the walk a bit short because taking my gloves off occasionally to take photos, my hands damn near froze!

Hey I use some really warm gloves that also have finger pads for your phone--very useful! I can send ya a link if you'd like

[Terpeast]

Bigger flakes mixing in. So interesting. This one is keeping us on our toes

[snowfan]

70/30 SNPL split on my jebwalk

[Scuddz]

14 degrees, mdt snow with mostly grains and probably 10% dendrites. Eyeballing about 5 inches and a nice foot and a half drift on one side of the patio

[heavy_wx]

Just changed over to sleet here in North Bethesda.

[Kleimax]

6 inches in Pikesville/Garrison

[osfan24]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If we can hold back the sleet until ~10am, it's going to be damn close.  Past 10am and 8"+ is a near-lock.

Seeing bigger flakes now. Probably a bad sign.

[stormtracker]

9 minutes ago, balltermen said:

90% sleet. 5.5" 

NAM did good with the warm nose. 13z.  The other models didn't catch on until later or not at all.  There were a couple runs with an 11z warm but it still was a legit red flag.  it was awful on everything else 

NAM thermals are deadly. 

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, Scraff said:

Can someone eyeball measure this for me. I can’t reach it from my couch. 

The pythagorean theorem tells me that you have 5.9" of snow.

[arlwx12]

Eyeballs estimated about 4-4.5 inches in Arlington VA before the sleet? arrived a bit before 8 am.

Didn't see-hear any pingers, though- maybe the teeny specks are rimed?

[IUsedToHateCold]

5.2" as of 10 minutes ago, SN+ beautiful. Accumulating faster than I can shovel it. It does look like it's going to switch soon 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

NAM thermals are deadly. 

This is the last time the forum underestimates NAM thermals... until the next marginal event. Seems wrong calling this a "marginal event" when the temperature is in the teens.

[baltosquid]

If we make it to 10am, HRRR did a good job for Baltimore with this one. Even a flip at 9 or so, its totals will be damn good. A little too aggressive with the cold sometimes but really locked in last night and honed in on 6-8 inches with its internal ratio for this area with heavy snow at times. I think it may have failed further south though - seems like the NAM had a good idea south where the rates seemed to struggle but was OTL on the QPF further north.

In short I think NAM was deadly early on and was right about the mix line racing north but it missed some of the qpf and fighting back later

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey I use some really warm gloves that also have finger pads for your phone--very useful! I can send ya a link if you'd like

Sure, maybe I can check into that sometime!  The gloves I have are fine, obviously not intended to be removed and put back on all the time LOL!  But you have to remove them for taking photos.  Something like finger pads when having to do that may come in handy.

[davidjd1114]

About 3.5 inches in York and snow is getting heavier


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[davidjd1114]

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[davidjd1114]

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[Fozz]

1 minute ago, Kleimax said:

6 inches in Pikesville/Garrison

My mom sent me several pictures and videos and that sounds about right. It looks like around 6” or so and the snow is very fine and powdery.

[ifindppl]

Just hearing pingers in Olney.  Snowing moderately w/tiny flakes and I assume some of it is sleet.