Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[Alfoman]

New Euro actually keeps the 700 mb column at 0 C or under in the district and above until between 20-21z on Sunday versus 17z on 6z suite

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Looks good to me. 

Guess I don’t know how things have shifted, but that seems real good for CHO ( @SnowenOutThere) and central VA?

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

@Terpeast

Wouldn't this sounding suggest +SN at DCA still at 18z?

IMO, it's rimmed snow, but that's snow.

[clskinsfan]

Euro with some high ratio stuff in the initial thump. Sunday morning is going to be fun. 

[jayyy]

Finally, a suite where all guidance made some adjustments in our direction. Especially important with this storm, as 1-2 degrees at 700 is the difference between heavy sleet and heavy snow after 12z Sunday.

I’m primarily looking at Baltimore and its nearby suburbs (Catonsville Columbia etc) as I feel like this area has the widest range of outcomes available to it.

[bncho]

9" of snow, then 2" of sleet and 1/4" freezing rain? That sounds like a very major winter storm. We're going to remember this for the impacts (ice) and its longevity due to the sheer frigid temps.

[baltosquid]

Check the closed 850 in the apps weakening run to run.

[balltermen]

6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

The euro was definitely an improvement. Another 25 miles south and it’s probably 15” all snow up these parts and 10” down to 20 miles N/W of the fall line. 

I don't think the forecast is terribly complicated for inside the DC beltway.

Just a matter of settling on a range 

My temptation is to go 6-10" for DC incl sleet.  This would imply 5-8" snow. 

But snow could be too low. All the globals give DC 6"+ using 12:1 ratios for the snow portion 

 

[Scraff]

Good trend. I’d sign now for the Euro. Wondering how long we can hold on to the fresh pow before the flippity flip…

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think the euro improvement, when taken along with all the rest of the 12z guidance...was more than just noise.  Keep in mind we are not going to see some massive jump every 6 hours from here on it, not on the euro anyways...not this close in.  But the changes I see on the euro are consistent with the changes I saw across the rest of the 12z guidance, so I think even though its an incremental change...its safe to say it's not just noise.  

Euro came in with the heavier stuff earlier when the ratios are better lol

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

@Terpeast

Wouldn't this sounding suggest +SN at DCA still at 18z?  700mb to 800mb is nearly isothermal, but just below zero.  If rates were to be heavy enough, I guess rimed snow?  

Yes thats snow, but probably with some riming. Think this would give us an hour before fully flipping to sleet

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, balltermen said:

I don't think the forecast is terribly complicated for inside the DC beltway.

Just a matter of settling on a range 

My temptation is to go 6-10" for DC incl sleet.  This would imply 5-8" snow. 

I'm thinking thats a tad conservative. I'm still adamant of a floor of 6" for the area.

[Eskimo Joe]

Clear trend on the Euro to also weaken the primary low at the surface and aloft quicker. Probably stunts the mid level warming so quickly. I want to see more of that today into tomorrow.

[high risk]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IMO, it's rimmed snow, but that's snow.

                  God, I really hope you meant "rimed". 

[balltermen]

3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Finally, a suite where all guidance made some adjustments in our direction. Especially important with this storm, as 1-2 degrees at 700 is the difference between heavy sleet and heavy snow after 12z Sunday.

I’m primarily looking at Baltimore and its nearby suburbs (Catonsville Columbia etc) as I feel like this area has the widest range of outcomes available to it.

The cutoff line for flip shouldn't be as severe as 2/12/14 when a few miles and a couple hundred feet bought you an extra 2 hours of snow. But the timing matters a lot of course. I could see Columbia get 10"+ snow. 

[Nomz]

Euro seems unusually dry. Even places up north like BOX and ALY only see just over 10 inches on 10:1.

[hstorm]

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Euro seems unusually dry. Even places up north like BOX and ALY only see just over 10 inches on 10:1.

Seems consistent with prior runs and other guidance:

[Nomz]

Just now, hstorm said:

Seems consistent with prior runs and other guidance:

Probably a ratio thing then... lucky fucks up north probably getting 15+:1

[MN Transplant]

10 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Check the closed 850 in the apps weakening run to run.

I just checked, and it is 6 consecutive 00z/12z Euro runs that have weakened the 850 low.  Not massive changes, but much, much better than going the other way.

[balltermen]

11 minutes ago, yoda said:

@Terpeast

Wouldn't this sounding suggest +SN at DCA still at 18z?  700mb to 800mb is nearly isothermal, but just below zero.  If rates were to be heavy enough, I guess rimed snow?  

Thanks. Still snow. I'm not going to use the Euro for thermals tomorrow. That's for hi rez mesos, but it's nice to know where the globals stand.  

DC really needs to protect itself against flipping before 9-10 am.  I think the goal is 6" before the flip. A nice solid bed.  

 

[Weather Will]

5 minutes ago, high risk said:

                  God, I really hope you meant "rimed". 

Hi: could you give your thoughts on RRFS. Is it better than 12K NAM?

[IUsedToHateCold]

Glad to see the southward trend continues. Nina FTW.  NAM thermals from this morning are probably overbaked, we will get a better grasp tomorrow on p-type. I feel confident that even if we sleet a lot, the sleet is going to really pile up, but I'm more confident we're going to see a lot of snow. I'm sticking with 10-12 for DC.

[baltosquid]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Hi: could you give your thoughts on RRFS. Is it better than 12K NAM?

I can't speak to how good it is, but now that you mention the RRFS, heights got lower a tick at the end of its 15z run. Only out to 18 hours but at that point precip is already starting in the south central CONUS. This isn't a high value data point or anything but better than the other direction.

[Solution Man]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Clear trend on the Euro to also weaken the primary low at the surface and aloft quicker. Probably stunts the mid level warming so quickly. I want to see more of that today into tomorrow.

The cleaner transfer to the coast is earlier 

[SnowenOutThere]

21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Guess I don’t know how things have shifted, but that seems real good for CHO ( @SnowenOutThere) and central VA?

Yep, the Euro is now by far the high end event for me. It even beats out the GFS. Mainly it just has an insanely favorable front end thump and QDF before switching over. Also to the point about some people have been pointing out about ptype maps; I've dug into the Euro a bit and it would have a longer period of snow and then sleet before icing. Though, it still manages to give me some legit freezing rain soundings by the end. Would probably be near the absolute worst case impacts wise. Oh and one last thing, my friend in HS wants our input (he follows the board because of me) as to IAD's total snowfall to win a free lunch. I'm thinking maybe 9.8? 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Yep, the Euro is now by far the high end event for me. It even beats out the GFS. Mainly it just has an insanely favorable front end thump and QDF before switching over. Also to the point about some people have been pointing out about ptype maps; I've dug into the Euro a bit and it would have a longer period of snow and then sleet before icing. Though, it still manages to give me some legit freezing rain soundings by the end. Would probably be near the absolute worst case impacts wise. Oh and one last thing, my friend in HS wants our input (he follows the board because of me) as to IAD's total snowfall to win a free lunch. I'm thinking maybe 9.8? 

Did you mean QPF?

[Nomz]

No clue how good the RAP is with winter wx, but I like it more than the NAM for severe wx. Gives us 7.7 inches on 10:1 at the end of the model run and coincidentally right before the changeover

[Weather Will]

Arctic air mass heading south is very impressive.  Will not be waiting for cold air to get established with this upcoming event. (WB)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

15z RAP is pretty far south with the ice/snow line fwiw. quicker/further south transfer to the coastal. Baltimore has 12" snow depth at hr51 and still quite a bit of storm to go. 

[WEATHER53]

52 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Maybe the models are starting to actually get grip on just how cold this airmass is?

It’s been my contention all week that a flat and fresh very cold 1035 high in a great position just does not get bullied and give it up