January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!

[North Balti Zen]

When someone types they can’t tell if changes early on are good or bad I think - “bad, changes are always bad” reflexively 

[stormtracker]

Just now, mattie g said:

I think we've determined that seemingly good changes up top have been offset by other changes elsewhere. Been happening for the last 48 hours or more.

Yeah, I think we might be stuck with no more wiggle room.  But Im holding out until at least 12z tomm

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, mattie g said:

I think we've determined that seemingly good changes up top have been offset by other changes elsewhere. Been happening for the last 48 hours or more.

Normally with our phasing storms its reasonably clear how the ridge axis, timing of phasing, heights out in front, will affect the outcome but with this one it's been really hard to guess. 

[mattie g]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, I think we might be stuck with no more wiggle room.  But Im holding out until at least 12z tomm

Agreed. In our neck of the woods, it's all about how long temps at 700 can hold on. I just don't see any way out of the flip.

[JenkinsJinkies]

15 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Can confirm grocery stores are busier today than yesterday.  

And will be busier tomorrow than they are today.

Totally getting rocked today.

Perry Hall’s Lidl looks like it got robbed.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

NAM is a little faster which I actually like, let's get all this precip in here before we lose thermals.  

[aldie 22]

Here's my first last and only call for my new home.

13.7" pure snow

1.2" sleet

a below zero temp reading at some point early next week. 

Good luck all i hope everyone gets something good!

[LVblizzard]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

NAM is a little faster which I actually like, let's get all this precip in here before we lose thermals.  

Faster with the northern stream, slower with the southern stream. This will likely lead to a colder outcome.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

SE of 95 4-8

DC 6-10

NW 8-14 

Seems like a pretty easy call and if DC gets 4 inches of snow and a bunch of sleet that'll seem like 6-10 anyway based on impact.

[mappy]

25 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I love when people question why someone might be disappointed in a flip. It's really thoughtful and no doubt makes the person on the other end automatically feel better about the prospect of flipping to sleet.

Sleet is the worst 

[Yeoman]

55 minutes ago, mappy said:

I expect Monday closed. Maybe Tuesday depending on how long precip goes into Monday. If not closed Tuesday at least a delay

2/2 and 2/3, right? Next week will be canceled before the first sleet pellet falls.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Sleet is the worst 

I am with you on that. I have suffered from chronic fatigue the last 12 years and the extra energy you need to pound through sleet is annoying as heck. May try to shovel while it's still powdery, lol

[JenkinsJinkies]

7 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

SE of 95 4-8

DC 6-10

NW 8-14 

Seems like a pretty easy call and if DC gets 4 inches of snow and a bunch of sleet that'll seem like 6-10 anyway based on impact.

Still thinking 6 inches is the floor.

[H2O]

Here's my call IMBY

Sat night: something falling from the sky

Sun AM(+5 zulu shit): some more stuff from the sky

Sun PM: different stuff from the sky but still counts on snow maps

Mon AM: nanook of the north cold

[Scraff]

Happy hour apparently started early! Some guy just bought me a drink from across the bar too. I kicked him my digits to see where it goes. 936-1212. I told him my name was snow…
 

 

[AmericanWxFreak]

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Happy hour apparently started early! Some guy just bought me a drink from across the bar too. I kicked him my digits to see where it goes. 936-1212. I told him my name was snow…
 

 

Barebones?

[Scraff]

Just now, AmericanWxFreak said:

Barebones?

Yes sir! 

[dallen7908]

My partner is at the grocery store and the only fruit options are zucchini spirals, cantaloupe or watermelon chunks, golden berries, a mango berry medley, and mirepoix. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Yes sir! 

Love that spot. I live in Turf Valley now, hoping the little bit of extra elevation helps me this weekend!

[T. August]

Nam was a disaster for sure

[H2O]

here we go again with a model not showing stuff people want to see

[mappy]

22 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

2/2 and 2/3, right? Next week will be canceled before the first sleet pellet falls.

Ha didn’t even know there was a threat next weekend too. 
and we shall see! I see Towson university already closed Monday/Tuesday 

[wxdude64]

Well, VDOT appears to think it's gonna snow. Out laying down the white stripes on all the roads this afternoon. 

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, H2O said:

here we go again with a model not showing stuff people want to see

I had to come over here to get out of the anti-Nam banter. 

[mattie g]

40 minutes ago, mappy said:

Sleet is the worst 

It really is

[mob1]

Just now, mattie g said:

It really is

Sleet has some serious staying power though, it would preserve the snowmaking for a while (though in this case it's crazy cold afterwards so it wouldn't matter). 

[WxUSAF]

Mrs WxUSAF confirms it’s crazy out there with people getting groceries and gas. 
 

THEY will be wrong again because THEY said we’re getting 2 feet!

[mattie g]

7 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Sleet has some serious staying power though, it would preserve the snowmaking for a while (though in this case it's crazy cold afterwards so it wouldn't matter). 

But falling sleet sucks. I made a post about it a few pages back that captures my feelings on the subject of a flip to sleet.

[Ephesians2]

Blacksburg is really bullish still. 

[North Balti Zen]

I feel like psuhoff conjures the demons of failure each time frankly with his always looking for the failure mode. It’s not rational but I’ve decided I’m right.