Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Mr. T. said:

What happen to the 12z RGEM?

Vacation

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

For reference, here's the map though 1/26 0z. Typically, if one reduces the amounts by a category at this lead time, it's estimate is pretty good.

The NAM seems to be the only hi res model this warm (along with its replacement RRFS) so hopefully that’s a good sign. The hi res RGEM was insane at 6z. 

[RedSky]

4 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

I miss the good ol nippon (jma) model. It was fairly good back in the day as well.

It currently track as the highest scoring model

[Blizzardo]

6 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Can we run the old ETA and ECM for the E+E rule?  Throw in the KFS and JMA for old time sake.

And I finally remembered... It was the Suny MM5! Lmao

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, Mr. T. said:

What happen to the 12z RGEM?

Maybe this?

[Bxstormwatcher360]

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

It currently track as the highest scoring model

I remember that model from the early 2000's,it indeed had the highest score verification at that time. But it's good to know that its still going strong. 

[Prue11]

17 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

Locked in for an NYC snow hole

Are you surprised? Lol

[NorthShoreWx]

27 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I mean I could say that the NAM/RRFS are trash and we’re all getting 12-18”, but that’s not reflective of reality. I’d rather set myself up for what to really expect and understand the evolution of it. And it should still be a fun 4-6 hours before going to sleet, and what we get will stay for a long time. Not saying at all this won’t have a significant impact. 

The fun will be in seeing what actually happens and comparing it to all this model variation.  My preference is the big snow, but enjoy whatever happens and don't look at Boston until the storm is over.

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

If meteorologists weren't so fixated on snow depth, but instead focused on frozen mass, 2" of sleet, alone, which is equivalent in frozen mass to 6" of 10:1 snow, would qualify for a warning.  Same impacts on transportation and shoveling/plowing, plus it melts more slowly due to the much lower surface area to volume ratio.  It doesn't have visibility issues, though, and it's not as pretty, but it's just about as impactful on the public.  

Exactly. 7-8” of combined snow and sleet will be a PITA to move to put it mildly. And that seems to be the low end. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

The fun will be in seeing what actually happens and comparing it to all this model variation.  My preference is the big snow, but enjoy whatever happens and don't look at Boston until the storm is over.

The storms with mixed precip types can be fun in their own right although i prefer back and forth than a setup like this where once the snow flips to sleet it's basically done with accumulating snow for the whole storm. 

[weatherpruf]

26 minutes ago, Snowman92 said:

I agree with most of this. We will need about a day to dig out and salt and we will be fine. This is not a 15" +  snowstorm across the full tristate area and every single county, I can understand craze for something like that

i think some areas will get those amounts, and with sleet on top removal will take time. but those are not the most densely populated areas, at least in nj. the rest of us will be ok. but sleet is deceptively dangerous. its not only this storm, i will read headlines now about storms in other parts of the country and it will be like 6 inches. come on folks...

[Metasequoia]

2 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Are you surprised? Lol

I get that this storm will have a dry slot, but come on, right? Too consistent run to run... it's like the British are screwing with New Yorkers.

[eduggs]

23 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Nam had Little Rock getting no snow, they’re at 6 inches lol

That raises a good point about 3rd party vendor snowfall graphics. Weather models don't forecast snowfall explicitly. They generate QPF and temperature at numerous vertical pressure levels at each horizontal grid point. 3rd party algorithms translate that information into a ptype forecast. But sometimes more than one ptype is present at the same time. Snowfall can be under-counted in cases where the warm layer is shallow and not-pronounced because the algorithm may lump it all as sleet when it's actually a mix of ptypes or rimed snowflakes. See the Little Rock NAM sounding below.

[Brasiluvsnow]

19 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Well that most likely mean the NAM really has no clue if this is correct? 

THIS 

[RU848789]

16 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Nam had Little Rock getting no snow, they’re at 6 inches lol

Great point.  Here's the NAM GIF for the last 36 hours with essentially nada in LR.  

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

Synoptically it tracks with the GFS. So usually too cold. Too bad though because it's a snowy solution... right into Mon. morning.

Thanks

 

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Exactly. 7-8” of combined snow and sleet will be a PITA to move to put it mildly. And that seems to be the low end. 

it will mean frankly some people will have heart attacks or slip and fall. of those, some won't make it. but that's life. i remember in feb 2010 some guy was shoveling and a tree limb fell and killed him; it was a very heavy dense snow.

[EastonSN+]

41 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The RGEM is late. Again.

Right now, taking into consideration the early 12z guidance, my thinking is that a reasonable worst-case (least snowy) outcome for New York City is 5" (no real change from previous thinking). A reasonable best case is 12" (down 2" from previous thinking). For now, I'm still thinking that a 6"-12" range for storm total snow and sleet captures the most likely scenarios.  Well north and west of the City, 12"-18" still appears likely. Areas south and east of the City and its nearby suburbs down to the central Jersey Shore and on eastern Long Island are in line for 4"-8". 

As a note, I am not fixated on any single model. My thinking takes into consideration the full range. No model has been dismissed at this time. Moreover, 100% of individual EPS members had a 6" or greater snowfall. I do think that the 12z HRRR was too snowy for New York City, but we'll see what the later guidance shows. By 18z and especially 0z, differences among the various models should narrow dramatically. 

All in all, this will still be New York City's biggest snowstorm in nearly four or perhaps five years. Personally, given the long snow drought, including the record 1,456 consecutive days without a 4" or greater daily snowfall (that includes today), I'll gladly accept the outcome that appears likely. Of course, I appreciate even the smaller events.

Thanks Don. I am starting to lean towards the lower end given the guidance. 

You may have the date, however, it was either january 1993 or 1994 (the cold and icy winter) which had a similar setup to this. Believe the city was 5 degrees in the morning and within 5 or 6 hours flipped to sleet (i do not recall the exact amount that fell). Boston was all snow and received over a foot.

This setup and cold air in place seems like a carbon copy. Perhaps can be used as a guide on thos event.

[cleetussnow]

8 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

I remember that model from the early 2000's,it indeed had the highest score verification at that time. But it's good to know that its still going strong. 

[nycsnow]

Also, what are the chances of heavy precip rates the snow winning out? And you might see a period of going back and forth snow sleet etc 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

We shall see. Nam can be amped but cant discount it since this is a new run.

Keep in mind, the primary low holds on and the coastal albeit too close to the coast, never takes over and becomes dominant. So the flow of warmer air at high levels is around the primary. Most of the precip is over, but most areas can still get a few hours of sleet or sleet/snow mix. Snow amounts are going to be a little lower than if we had rapidly deepening coastal low offshore completely taking over and the primary washing or nearly washing out. I think coastal sections are looking at 5-9" inland n and west 9-12".

WX/PT

[SACRUS]

1/24 16z RAP

 

Snow between 4 - 6 am

 

 

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Nam will correct south in the next run

Why? Antecedent HP is retreating.

WX/PT

[NorthShoreWx]

5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

The storms with mixed precip types can be fun in their own right although i prefer back and forth than a setup like this where once the snow flips to sleet it's basically done with accumulating snow for the whole storm. 

It might still be a back and forth.  The solid slam the door, straight-line "sleet front" on some of the models isn't likely to manifest that way.  Most of the p-type graphics don't even have a representation of mixing.  Some of the soundings I looked at were brutal, but others had a warm nose that looked too cold and too shallow to melt anything.  It'll sleet, but that will be fine.

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don. I am starting to lean towards the lower end given the guidance. 

You may have the date, however, it was either january 1993 or 1994 (the cold and icy winter) which had a similar setup to this. Believe the city was 5 degrees in the morning and within 5 or 6 hours flipped to sleet (i do not recall the exact amount that fell). Boston was all snow and received over a foot.

This setup and cold air in place seems like a carbon copy. Perhaps can be used as a guide on thos event.

i remember it. snowed for like ten minutes then flipped. but it also had zr, causing serious accidents. sucked. but we had some great snows later on.

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

i think some areas will get those amounts, and with sleet on top removal will take time. but those are not the most densely populated areas, at least in nj. the rest of us will be ok. but sleet is deceptively dangerous. its not only this storm, i will read headlines now about storms in other parts of the country and it will be like 6 inches. come on folks...

NYC only had 7-8 inches from 3/14/17 but there were snow/ice mountains everywhere and streets were horrible as if way over a foot fell. I remember how bad it was driving down some side streets in Queens. The 7-8” NYC had was the same water content as someone in PA that got 20”+. This one won’t have the same water content (I think over 2” liquid) as that storm but it will still be significant impact. 

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don. I am starting to lean towards the lower end given the guidance. 

You may have the date, however, it was either january 1993 or 1994 (the cold and icy winter) which had a similar setup to this. Believe the city was 5 degrees in the morning and within 5 or 6 hours flipped to sleet (i do not recall the exact amount that fell). Boston was all snow and received over a foot.

This setup and cold air in place seems like a carbon copy. Perhaps can be used as a guide on thos event.

I was living in Washington, DC at the time and don't recall that storm. You might be referring to January 26, 1994, but I'm not completely sure.

[eduggs]

Careful about extrapolating a borderline snow sounding in Arkansas to our area. On one hand, we could also benefit from snow and sleet mixed being treated as non-snow on the clown maps. Sometimes rimed flakes aggregate into parachutes that accumulate fairly well (~12:1). Unfortunately the NAM- and RRPS-modeled soundings have a much more pronounced warm layer for our area tomorrow afternoon than for Little Rock this morning. It's several degrees C above freezing in the warmest layer. We need that to be completely wrong. In the Little Rock case the shallow warm layer is near freezing.

[wilton_wx]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Careful about extrapolating a borderline snow sounding in Arkansas to our area. On one hand, we could also benefit from snow and sleet mixed being treated as non-snow on the clown maps. Sometimes rimed flakes aggregate into parachutes that accumulate fairly well (~12:1). Unfortunately the NAM- and RRPS-modeled soundings have a much more pronounced warm layer for our area tomorrow afternoon than for Little Rock this morning. It's several degrees C above freezing in the warmest layer. We need that to be completely wrong. In the Little Rock case the shallow warm layer is near freezing.

Yes, we should definitley note this and not be afriad to pump the brakes. At the same time however, the NAM completely shit the bed on precipitation type, not totals. It showed nothing for little rock, AFB reported just under 6" with NW parts of the city reproting 6"+.

[North and West]

Checking in at halftime of my older son’s game; what is the storm actually doing at this moment versus what the models have shown? Thanks.

I’ll hang up and listen.


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