Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 00z GFS

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

[MJO812]

Gfs is all snow until the end  with more precip. Mecs.

 

[SACRUS]

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

[Winterweatherlover]

GFS looks like a shift toward the other models but still further SE then them.

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is all snow with more precip. Mecs.

 

Tony is it colder or warmer or the same?

[SACRUS]

 

[TriPol]

GFS holds serve against the NAM (retiring soon) the ICON (irrelevant) and the RDPS (can't do well with WAA). I would put more stock in the GFS than any of those.

[MJO812]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Tony is it colder or warmer or the same?

Warmer at the end with the secondary further north but a bigger thump.

[mob1]

Sleet is all but guaranteed for most of us in the end, what I'm looking at now is heavier precipitation before the switch. 

[SACRUS]

[TJW014]

Looks like GFS is still going to be our best bet for big totals. Building an initial snow map.

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Tony is it colder or warmer or the same?

Continues to bump north

[TriPol]

Maybe a quick hit of sleet, but it ends as snow.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Warmer at the end with the secondary further north but a bigger thump.

i guess we can't get rid of that warm nose so we sleet okay we're getting to consensus here i guess! Sucks i really wanted an all done event 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, TJW014 said:

Looks like GFS is still going to be our best bet for big totals. Building an initial snow map.

We'd all sign up for the gfs

[203whiteout]

Get ready for A LOT of mixing during the height of the storm unfortunately. Even up into CT. We also have all day tomorrow and Saturday for models to continue trending north. Easily 50 miles per run..


.

[kat5hurricane]

The GFS looks like a shifted a bit towards the other models, not surprised at all. This could be the beginning of the trend of the GFS caving

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

GFS holds serve against the NAM (retiring soon) the ICON (irrelevant) and the RDPS (can't do well with WAA). I would put more stock in the GFS than any of those.

It didn't really hold serve in my view, it may a significant overall shift to the others.

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 0z GFS total QPF storm

 

 

 

Total snow / sleet (10:1)

 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

1/23 0z GFS total QPF storm

 

 

 

Total snow / sleet (10:1)

 

The models keep warming but the qpf keeps going up, totals don't really change.

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, 203whiteout said:

Get ready for A LOT of mixing during the height of the storm unfortunately. Even up into CT. We also have all day tomorrow and Saturday for models to continue trending north. Easily 50 miles per run..


.

we don't know what's going to happen, this could easily trend south or stay where it's at we don't know! 

[Metasequoia]

QPF continuing to increase...

[kat5hurricane]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

It didn't really hold serve in my view, it may a significant overall shift to the others.

It sure did, as expected with it sitting on its own.

[mikeysed]

Kuchie crush job

[psv88]

Yea these models are getting much much wetter. We are about to get smacked real good. Better get that ice melt!

[MANDA]

I’ll take my weather app for the win.

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

00z Total QPF / Snow / Sleet
NYC

SREF:  1.3 /  (8.4)
NAM: 1.3 / (8.4)
RGEM: 1.4 / (8.6)
ICON: 1.3 / (7.5)
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.1 / ( )
GFS: 1.4 / (14.8)
 

Updated d

[Snowlover11]

GFS has hardly budged. Either awfully wrong or going to pull a massive W.