January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[mitchnick]

On the darker side, EuroAI ensembles looked to have lowered 12z qpf at DCA and BWI by .3" and York, PA by .2". Hopefully a blip.

[Bob Chill]

18 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah I don’t think there is as much after 144 as many of you think if you look at this. It’s not like it’s climbing the coast and stalling out or something.

Upper level support is still pretty far back and there's potential stream interaction as it swings through. Not saying some huge dump is still inbound but verbatim, decent lift and dynamics are continuing beyond this hr144

[87storms]

52 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Biggest issue I've seen no one discuss about the storm shifting backwards is that it'll be getting further into sun angle season. C'mon guys we used to be a proper forum. 

The sun is gonna be at a very symbolic 32 degrees altitude by the time our storm arrives.

[clskinsfan]

I am just sitting here salivating at the 2m temp maps while we are getting pummeled. Low teens to high single digits west of the fall line. Been so long since we have had one that cold. Hope it's correct. 

[Eskimo Joe]

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The more I look at the 18z euro, the more I REALLY like it. That beast was just getting started. Look at H5 at the end. Long duration high ratio bomb. 
Anyway, on to 0z.

It was great. No complaints.

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Oranged. Wish it was confidence pulling it up but we’ll take. 

Where are these posted on LWX’s site?  I no longer see it under the Winter Weather section.

[Solution Man]

31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The more I look at the 18z euro, the more I REALLY like it. That beast was just getting started. Look at H5 at the end. Long duration high ratio bomb. 
Anyway, on to 0z.

[Nomz]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Where are these posted on LWX’s site?  I no longer see it under the Winter Weather section.

I would like to know as well, I was looking for them.

Otherwise, I feel very good about carrying water for the euro aifs before this event... 

[Chris78]

31 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

On the darker side, EuroAI ensembles looked to have lowered 12z qpf at DCA and BWI by .3" and York, PA by .2". Hopefully a blip.

Hopefully that stops. The last 2 runs have actually cut back. It's not bad but I don't want it trending any further south.

Edit: My bad. I was actually looking at the EuroAI not it's ensembles but still need it to stop the south shift..

[NorthArlington101]

Where are these posted on LWX’s site?  I no longer see it under the Winter Weather section.

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/wintermaps

Slightly different then the winter page… select Days 3-7

[snowdude]

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Where are these posted on LWX’s site?  I no longer see it under the Winter Weather section.

Under the winter threat tab 

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/wintermaps

[Quasievil]

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Where are these posted on LWX’s site?  I no longer see it under the Winter Weather section.

I can’t find it on there either. Navigating weather.gov makes me want to throw my iPad.

[mitchnick]

29 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

On the darker side, EuroAI ensembles looked to have lowered 12z qpf at DCA and BWI by .3" and York, PA by .2". Hopefully a blip.

Idk if it was how I said it to get those reactions, but 18z qpf really went down from 12z on the EuroAI ensembles (EPS).

[nj2va]

WPC thoughts on Minor, Moderate, and Major impacts…bullish.

[nj2va]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Idk if it was how I said it to get those reactions, but 18z qpf really went down from 12z on the EuroAI ensembles (EPS).

Last 3 runs of the regular EPS (only to 144 on 18z so I stopped it there).  While the EPS is favoring S VA/NC for the heaviest QPF, its been bumping totals to the north.

[clskinsfan]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z qpf really went down

Really just noise at this range though dont you think?

[LongRanger]

weather.gov's CA certificate has been invalid for months, leaving the site totally inaccessible to many

[LeesburgWx]

One of my hockey beer league teammates just posted in our team group chat about snow storm this weekend. Prepare yourselves, the public is starting to catch on to the hype

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, LongRanger said:

weather.gov's CA certificate has been invalid for months, leaving the site totally inaccessible to many

I just pulled it up???

[Berlin1926]

Looks like pretty consistent Richmond-Raleigh axis bullseye even as the models slide some north or south.  Will RDU be ice seems to be the question.  RIC hasn't changed -- all snow?

[snowfan]

2 minutes ago, LongRanger said:

weather.gov's CA certificate has been invalid for months, leaving the site totally inaccessible to many

Have never encountered a problem on a wide variety of devices

[Rhino16]

4 minutes ago, LongRanger said:

weather.gov's CA certificate has been invalid for months, leaving the site totally inaccessible to many

I had to clear my cache to get the teleconnections page to work.

[Warm Nose]

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, LongRanger said:

weather.gov's CA certificate has been invalid for months, leaving the site totally inaccessible to many

I pull it up weekly with no prob

[MillvilleWx]

7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Last 3 runs of the regular EPS (only to 144 on 18z so I stopped it there).  While the EPS is favoring S VA/NC for the heaviest QPF, its been bumping totals to the north.

Meeting in the middle. This storm will have some dual maxima with it too which the smoothed means will not be able to handle, including the AI guidance. As it stands, this would be a QPF bomb with a sharp northern edge. This is one of those setups where you could go from nothing to 0.5” to 1” in under 100 miles. 

[mappy]

2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Wasn’t me, but I concour! 12:1 average through storm with some chance at 15:1 or better at times. Need this to hold friend! 

I mean what are the chances it misses completely lol 

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

I mean what are the chances it misses completely lol 

Still a chance, but probably lower than normal. I’d be very sad, but I’m also willing to chase this one so long as there is a storm. I’m just hoping it holds for the area so I can chase from the couch.  

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

I mean what are the chances it misses completely lol 

As in no snow at all I would say pretty low imo. 

[Ji]

These long tracks are exhausting it already feels like we have been tracking this for a month and there is still 5 days to go. It's hard to believe this is the final solution so im with you...let's make it better

This all started when the euro had that 4 foot snowstorm

[csnavywx]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Idk if it was how I said it to get those reactions, but 18z qpf really went down from 12z on the EuroAI ensembles (EPS).

If we're doing verbatim, quite a bit of mixing on the southern half of the 12Z run whereas virtually none on the 18Z and surface temps in the teens and low 20s. Anywhere near 1" of liquid in those conditions is gold.