First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[Sey-Mour Snow]

wish the pats had a 6:30 game, that woulda been fun.. game might be during a relative lull in the snow rates.. Picks up in the second half for sure.. 

[weathafella]

Can we weigh AI higher than op now?

[weatherwiz]

Just now, weathafella said:

Can we weigh AI higher than op now?

I will take back my comments...this has definitely peaked my interest. I think moving forward, if AI camps are steadfast and the traditional models are wavering and we have model-to-model inconsistency...well its a no brainer in which camp to lean in

[CoastalWx]

Looks like I may be sending my degree to Nvidia and buying Jerry food and drinks 

[Kitz Craver]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

You actually have to wonder if the heaviest banding may actually occur right over the CT River lmao. This could be a setup where its displaced more northwest than what models indicate 

I like your style man

[Go Kart Mozart]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Can we weigh AI higher than op now?

I am a big AI fan, although they are not a forecasting panacea.  We probably have to learn to look at the AIs before we check out the buggy whippers.

Then again, we might be spiking the ball on the one.

Wrong thread, but we are in PoundTown right now.

 

[Snowcrazed71]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z euro just for tomorrows storm

I'll take that look. I'm starting to feel a little bit more confident about getting 2" to 4" in at my locale ( just one town above Wolfie ). Today's already overperformed. I got about 1 and 1/2 in this morning, but I have no idea what the new round will bring as I'm at work in West Hartford...... So this will just add to it and stick around all week!

[DavisStraight]

Just getting back to Maine, moderate snow, just starting to accumulate.

[Go Kart Mozart]

American Skynet keeps ticking....

[weathafella]

Where’s tblizz?  Out buying a speedo?

[butterfish55]

Where’s tblizz?  Out buying a speedo?

I live about 4 miles from brett. I have already volunteered to go over and take the picture.

[cut]

8 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I am a big AI fan, although they are not a forecasting panacea.  We probably have to learn to look at the AIs before we check out the buggy whippers.

Then again, we might be spiking the ball on the one.

Wrong thread, but we are in PoundTown right now.

 

Yes it just really started coming down. Roads covered again.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Wow, euro is solid here. 6-10” for the cranberry bogs 

[Bryan63]

Would this qualify as a messenger shuffle?

[weathafella]

Just now, Bryan63 said:

Would this qualify as a messenger shuffle?

No.  Messenger shuffle is the other way I think.

[moneypitmike]

Unfortunately, my experience with it will just be driving down from PVD to shovel it.

[amarshall]

Wow, euro is solid here. 6-10” for the cranberry bogs 

We take


.

[radarman]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I almost don’t want it to be too snowy though.

Lets see Will Anderson try to bend around the edge on 6" of glop

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

No.  Messenger shuffle is the other way I think.

Yeah we don’t want that. We want the Tblizz Truffle Shuffle west.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, radarman said:

Lets see Will Anderson try to bend around the edge on 6" of glop

Yeah, that’s true too, good point.

[vortex95]

I am not impressed overall w/ this event, despite the storm further NW.

MOS shows sfc temps 34-38 F for most of the event across much of CT, all of RI, eastern MA, and Cape Cod.  And precip intensity is not nuts (best 6 hr LEQ amount on the HRRR I see is .50" over the outer Cape), so despite the cold 850 and 925, the BL remains a big problem.

There is zero high pressure to our N.  In fact, it is one big trough from Labrador to the Great Lakes.  This is rare for a coastal storm, and key for ptype in this event.  So the low-level cold is limited, and more importantly, there is no solid N or NE sfc/BL wind to constantly drain the cold air to the N into SNE during the event.  Winds are going to be rather light for a coastal storm, relatively speaking, so this is going to cause issues.

Just before the precip starts in BOS on the NAM, the BL wind is 24011 and 6 hr later it is 1404.  Does that look like a wind direction/trend that is conducive to significant snowfall?  Also BOS buoy SST is 42 F.  W/o solid ageostrophic flow and a mechanism to drain low-level cold air from the N into the heavier precip area, again, this is a big problem for ptype.  You need this to offset relatively mild ocean temps.

And what falls and SOG is likely to be quite different in many areas.

So I would temper expectations here.  Not a big storm (MEH for central pressure and deepening rate) and really no different than the piecemeal, nickel and dime events for snowfall we have dealt w/ so far this winter. 

 

[hooralph]

I hope Borregales has been taking all his practice kicks in the cold and snow (when it was there) for weeks. Venezuela-> Miami-> Foxboro in January. 

[DomNH]

Looks like -RASN at the start of the Patriots game then maybe it picks up as a wet snow in the second half. Don't think it'll be a huge impact. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

I am not impressed overall w/ this event, despite the storm further NW.

MOS shows sfc temps 34-38 F for much of the event across much of CT, all of RI, eastern MA, and Cape Cod.  And precip intensity is not nuts, so despite the cold 850 and 925, the BL remains a big problem.

There is zero high pressure to our N.  In fact, it is one big trough from Labrador to the Great Lakes.  This is rare for a coastal storm, and key for ptype in this event.  So the low-level cold is limited, and more importantly, there is no solid N or NE sfc/BL wind to constantly drain the cold air to the N into SNE during the event.  Winds are going to rather light for coastal storm, relatively speaking, so this is going to cause issues.

Just before the precip starts in BOS on the NAM, the BL wind is 24011 and 6 hr later it is 1404.  Does that look like a wind direction/trend that is conducive to significant snowfall?  Also BOS buoy SST is 42 F.  W/o solid ageostrophic flow and a mechanism to drain low-level cold air from the N into the heavier precip area, again, this is a big problem for ptype.  You need this to offset relatively mild ocean temps.

And what falls and SOG is likely to be quite different many areas.

So I would temper expectations here.  Not a big storm (MEH for central pressure and deepening rate) and really no different that the piecemeal, nickel and dime events for snowfall we have dealt w/ so far this winter. 

 

The profile is marginal so I don't disagree with anything you say here.

I just think the excitement is rooted in the possibility that a last minute trend for a thread the needle event seems to be pointing toward a win for the region. A widespread 3-5" would be the biggest event of the season for many, as sad as that is. More than that? Even better. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Yeah. It looks like the real meat would be evening and overnight. Impact for the pats game looks minimal 

[weatherwiz]

I would not be surprised if guidance is too warm tomorrow, even without the lack of high to the north. Going to be thick in overcast and little mixing. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z skynet ensm going all in.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I would not be surprised if guidance is too warm tomorrow, even without the lack of high to the north. Going to be thick in overcast and little mixing. 

High of 34.3 here. Down to 33.1 now with the snow picking back up. 

I think we're probably fine in CT tomorrow with temps. May be a bit more dicey to our east at least for a bit. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

12z skynet ensm going all in.

The machines knew….when nothing else did. Big win. 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

12z skynet ensm going all in.

Regular EPS