Storm potential January 18th-19th

[snowman19]

Womp womp womp. 6z GFS, full on, all out cave to the EPS. Who didn’t see that one coming? 

[MJO812]

43 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Womp womp womp. 6z GFS, full on, all out cave to the EPS. Who didn’t see that one coming? 

Thread made , storm gone. Happens all the time.

But yep gfs is a horrendous model. It did have support from the CMC.

[MJO812]

Gfs and gefs are horrendous. Just as we thought the models were trending to the gfs. Always need the Euro on your side. 

 

Saturday might be a bigger deal than Sunday. 

[MJO812]

19 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Why the hell did you make a thread? Smfh

Bump

[Dan76]

Need to bump to FEB

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Need to bump to FEB

Maybe end of January 

[Dan76]

Seen this movie before.

[snowman19]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs and gefs are horrendous. Just as we thought the models were trending to the gfs. Always need the Euro on your side. 

 

Saturday might be a bigger deal than Sunday. 

Saturday may be an inch or so? The issue is snow ratios are not going to be good….likely less than 10:1. The boundary layer is going to suck, it’s going to be in the upper 30’s even up here where I am. The new EURO/EPS didn’t budge for Sunday

[Violentweatherfan]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m going with the EPS and op EURO on this one

Also the MJO will be in phase 6 which does not favor snow for the east coast 

[Violentweatherfan]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe end of January 

The MJO will be in a more favorable phase by then 

[EastonSN+]

33 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Seen this movie before.

Most of the time persistence wins.

For last winter and this winter to date there have been two themes:

Dry

Cold

Warm ups are short and snowfalls are light to moderate.

[RU848789]

So, just woke up and saw that there were only a handful of posts for 6Z relative to the dozens at 0Z, which told me that the threat must have been reduced and the GFS must have caved as the very snowy outlier and we'd have a 1-2" threat at best (and similarly, that there had not been a thread created for this thread on 33).  Not far off, lol - and I'll still take 1-2", hoping the Euro/GFS/ICON are wrong in showing very little except maybe <1" for the coast and the AI models have it right with a 1-3" event (AIFS) or even a 3-5" event (AIGFS, if the surface temps are too high on that model as many have said).  Not ready to believe the nice RGEM/RRFS at the end of their ranges yet (or the snowless NAM - same reason).  

[BoulderWX]

This board is hilarious. To see the way people reactive from 0Z to 6Z is hilarious and could be a case study in psychology. 
 

OT - but light snow ATM

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

So, just woke up and saw that there were only a handful of posts for 6Z relative to the dozens at 0Z, which told me that the threat must have been reduced and the GFS must have caved as the very snowy outlier and we'd have a 1-2" threat at best (and similarly, that there had not been a thread created for this thread on 33).  Not far off, lol - and I'll still take 1-2", hoping the Euro/GFS/ICON are wrong in showing very little except maybe <1" for the coast and the AI models have it right with a 1-3" event (AIFS) or even a 3-5" event (AIGFS, if the surface temps are too high on that model as many have said).  Not ready to believe the nice RGEM/RRFS at the end of their ranges yet (or the snowless NAM - same reason).  

Yeah, I look at this as an opportunity for a light event. 

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

So, just woke up and saw that there were only a handful of posts for 6Z relative to the dozens at 0Z, which told me that the threat must have been reduced and the GFS must have caved as the very snowy outlier and we'd have a 1-2" threat at best (and similarly, that there had not been a thread created for this thread on 33).  Not far off, lol - and I'll still take 1-2", hoping the Euro/GFS/ICON are wrong in showing very little except maybe <1" for the coast and the AI models have it right with a 1-3" event (AIFS) or even a 3-5" event (AIGFS, if the surface temps are too high on that model as many have said).  Not ready to believe the nice RGEM/RRFS at the end of their ranges yet (or the snowless NAM - same reason).  

Its difficult to believe any solutions right now. Over all the models are having an unusually difficult time with this pattern. The area of precip on Saturday is so limited along with temps borderline in some areas - I doubt most areas south of I-80 will see more than Trace amounts and only in some locations. Sunday ?  Will determine after 12Z model runs.

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Also the MJO will be in phase 6 which does not favor snow for the east coast 

Nope

[Krs4Lfe]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nope

I hate to be the one that says it. But it needs to be said. Winter has shown its cards. It got off to a great start with above average snowfall in December and well below average temperatures. But since then, we have been warm for nearly the entire month of January. No snow threats have worked out for us. While it will become cold starting this weekend, this weekend snow threat will not work out and the Euro was right once again. Time to wrap it up, folks.

[RU848789]

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Its difficult to believe any solutions right now. Over all the models are having an unusually difficult time with this pattern. The area of precip on Saturday is so limited along with temps borderline in some areas - I doubt most areas south of I-80 will see more than Trace amounts and only in some locations. Sunday ?  Will determine after 12Z model runs.

Agree that the ~1" or so seen on most models for Saturday is likely white rain, at least for 95 and the coast, especially with light snow falling during the day (sun angle ain't zero), with maybe some accumulation on colder surfaces if we're lucky.  And Sunday is all over the place, although the AIFS, in particular has been pretty consistent for many runs and it has the best model verification scores recently, albeit for 500 mbar predictions and not snow, per se - although it never bit much on today's "snow" a few to several days ago.  

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I hate to be the one that says it. But it needs to be said. Winter has shown its cards. It got off to a great start with above average snowfall in December and well below average temperatures. But since then, we have been warm for nearly the entire month of January. No snow threats have worked out for us. While it will become cold starting this weekend, this weekend snow threat will not work out and the Euro was right once again. Time to wrap it up, folks.

Temps were above average for 9 days. 

[RU848789]

10 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I hate to be the one that says it. But it needs to be said. Winter has shown its cards. It got off to a great start with above average snowfall in December and well below average temperatures. But since then, we have been warm for nearly the entire month of January. No snow threats have worked out for us. While it will become cold starting this weekend, this weekend snow threat will not work out and the Euro was right once again. Time to wrap it up, folks.

Winter isn't some character in a movie that "shows cards."  First 6 days of Jan were well below normal, next 8 were well above normal and from today through the end of January looks to be well below normal with numerous snow chances, as reflected by the EPS/GEFS/CMC/AIFS ensemble means, plus Sunday isn't dead yet.  

[NJwx85]

This is classic windshield wiper model shenanigans. I wouldn’t write this off just yet but a glancing blow that happens Eastern New England is most likely.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

17 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I hate to be the one that says it. But it needs to be said. Winter has shown its cards. It got off to a great start with above average snowfall in December and well below average temperatures. But since then, we have been warm for nearly the entire month of January. No snow threats have worked out for us. While it will become cold starting this weekend, this weekend snow threat will not work out and the Euro was right once again. Time to wrap it up, folks.

Do you really hate to be the one to say it? Since you say it constantly I sense otherwise. 

[IrishRob17]

18 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I hate to be the one that says it. But it needs to be said. Winter has shown its cards. It got off to a great start with above average snowfall in December and well below average temperatures. But since then, we have been warm for nearly the entire month of January. No snow threats have worked out for us. While it will become cold starting this weekend, this weekend snow threat will not work out and the Euro was right once again. Time to wrap it up, folks.

OK, see ya.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Dan76 said:

Seen this movie before.

Kick the can time!

[Snowfreak09]

33 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I hate to be the one that says it. But it needs to be said. Winter has shown its cards. It got off to a great start with above average snowfall in December and well below average temperatures. But since then, we have been warm for nearly the entire month of January. No snow threats have worked out for us. While it will become cold starting this weekend, this weekend snow threat will not work out and the Euro was right once again. Time to wrap it up, folks.

[RU848789]

What I find most interesting (especially psychologically) is that if there were no GFS model (and is there, really? lol), we'd be looking at the 0Z/6Z situation differently with improvements on the AI models a nudge NW for the Euro (if still mostly a miss), decent RDPS/GDPS and a less snowy ICON and thinking 1-2" might be a decent middle ground guess right now (as per the NBM) - which I'd take in a heartbeat.

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Womp womp womp. 6z GFS, full on, all out cave to the EPS. Who didn’t see that one coming? 

 

[Nibor]

26 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I hate to be the one that says it. But it needs to be said. Winter has shown its cards. It got off to a great start with above average snowfall in December and well below average temperatures. But since then, we have been warm for nearly the entire month of January. No snow threats have worked out for us. While it will become cold starting this weekend, this weekend snow threat will not work out and the Euro was right once again. Time to wrap it up, folks.

You’re right. There’s no snow and it’s warm. Go outside. Touch grass. 

[weatherpruf]

57 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I hate to be the one that says it. But it needs to be said. Winter has shown its cards. It got off to a great start with above average snowfall in December and well below average temperatures. But since then, we have been warm for nearly the entire month of January. No snow threats have worked out for us. While it will become cold starting this weekend, this weekend snow threat will not work out and the Euro was right once again. Time to wrap it up, folks.

if you want to wrap it up that's fine; go get your garden planned, respool your rods, whatever it is you do to get ready for spring. otoh, i have seen good snows in march, and in decades where the winters were warm as hell, too. been around a long time. you'd be crazy to say its over at this point. now, a betting man has a good chance of betting against snow, but gun to my head, i would not bet against snow until mid march.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I hate to be the one that says it. But it needs to be said. Winter has shown its cards. It got off to a great start with above average snowfall in December and well below average temperatures. But since then, we have been warm for nearly the entire month of January. No snow threats have worked out for us. While it will become cold starting this weekend, this weekend snow threat will not work out and the Euro was right once again. Time to wrap it up, folks.

Go away troll