Ice Ice Baby December 28-29 Storm Discussion

[Torch Tiger]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just noticed ice storm warnings issued. Wish we lived there 

yeah i think most would be happy grabbing .5" or even 1" of solid ice at this point.  lock in that pack

[Baroclinic Zone]

29/20 here. Expect that brief period of icing that people won’t expect around these parts to cause some accidents.

We spike tomorrow to 50F. Snow be gone 

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Need to be wary... Moderate / heavy rainfall rates are a negative for big accreation... Significant icing for sure (0.5"), from what I can tell much of the qpf occurs during a relative short period of time.  In this setup 0.75 to 1.00 qpf does not equate to 0.75 to 1.0 inches of ice...

   this was explained over two days, ad nauseam ... but, the audience just sits in wait with elastic strain for the first reason ( in this case ... HREF driven knee jerk upgrades) to suspend all constraint.  Anything to load up the dopa syringe, at least excuse imagined 

LOL

[wxeyeNH]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just noticed ice storm warnings issued. Wish we lived there 

You don't!  Still nightmares from 1998!

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

You don't!  Still nightmares from 1998!

I do!

In my mind , I live there tonight 

[dendrite]

18 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Thank you, Brian, for your optimism.  I hope you are right!  28.7/13

I think you will get some decent icing. 1k way up there will give you an advantage over most of the population in NH. I could see you pulling 1/3” radial. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think you will get some decent icing. 1k way up there will give you an advantage over most of the population in NH. I could see you pulling 1/3” radial. 

Why wouldn’t it be the lower elevations ? Why would the hilltops do better in CAD?

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why wouldn’t it be the lower elevations ? Why would the hilltops do better in CAD?

We still usually run moist lapse rates under the inversion. The 1k hills are almost always colder in icing setups. 

[ineedsnow]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I do!

In my mind , I live there tonight 

I'm jealous of them.. thinking .10 to .25 here 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I'm jealous of them.. thinking .10 to .25 here 

We all are 

[Roger Smith]

The way this is rushing in with a spike of warming to follow, I would cut most of those ice accretion forecasts in half and the real problem is likely to be ponding followed by a rapid freeze by late afternoon. It's going to be a nasty mess in many areas by late Monday. 

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I'm jealous of them.. thinking .10 to .25 here 

hope the ice overperforms !  

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

hope the ice overperforms !  

limited qpf and fast movement equals meh I think.. atleast here

[Modfan2]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We all are 

Temp has only dropped to 29F here, won’t take much to get to 33F 

[VivaManchVegas]

Topped out at 38.  Now 27.  Slowly decreasing.   GYX saying we bottom out around 26 and end up at 38 at sunset tomorrow.  Still calling for 0.4" of freezing rain.  

[wxeyeNH]

31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think you will get some decent icing. 1k way up there will give you an advantage over most of the population in NH. I could see you pulling 1/3” radial. 

...yesterday we  got a notice from our 3-man highway department. The town has 2 sanding trucks.  One broke down yesterday so the notice said to expect major delays in road treatment.  Our plow is fine but you know my location.  Only one steep way up and down. Wish me luck.  I hope we can get above freezing for a few hours before the wind and cold come roaring back.  Looks like we will have a glacier type landscape for awhile.  Speare hospital, get ready.  Lots of incoming slips and slides this week.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Holding the cold here at 26 but qpf seems limited.  

[powderfreak]

24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We still usually run moist lapse rates under the inversion. The 1k hills are almost always colder in icing setups. 

Yeah, we tend to max out cold at 1500-3000ft around here.

Though I’m not sure I remember one as shallow as this.  3,000ft can be the coldest on east slope but in this it’s much lower around 750-1,000ft.

[tavwtby]

29 and rain has started here...

[Chrisrotary12]

Drove from Nashua to Weymouth today. My god is there enough chemicals on the roads? Was driving through a cloud of salt.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

25.7°/21.3°

Will be interesting to see how well ice accretes here at 900ft vs. 1400ft just up the road. Thankfully, it doesn't look like it'll accrete too well on branches for the most part. Either way, I'm expecting the ground to resemble a glacier by tomorrow afternoon. Might need to bust out the damn ice skates to navigate the yard. 

[klw]

56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why wouldn’t it be the lower elevations ? Why would the hilltops do better in CAD?

In the 98 icestorm, the cold was at low levels west of the Greens but here in the east the ice was at 1000"+.  It was very odd to me at the time.

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

   this was explained over two days, ad nauseam ... but, the audience just sits in wait with elastic strain for the first reason ( in this case ... HREF driven knee jerk upgrades) to suspend all constraint.  Anything to load up the dopa syringe, at least excuse imagined 

LOL

Just went ice storm warning but luckily everyone here said this is not an ice storm setup

[klw]

630 updated BTV discussion

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

 

As of 632 PM EST Sunday...Radar showing freezing rain expanding
quickly toward our cwa this evening with precip expected to
develop in the next 1 to 2 hours. Water vapor shows impressive
rapidly developing cyclone over the central Plains, with potent
s/w energy/dynamics helping to enhance thunderstorm development
in the Ohio Valley. In addition, strong-deep layer moisture and
thermal advection continues from the northern Ohio Valley into
central NY, as precip continues to expand in areal coverage.
Upstream 3 to 4 hour qpf amounts at BUF are impressive with
>0.75" occurring, its this heavy axis of precip with elevated
instability that will move acrs our cwa later tonight into
Monday morning. I have bumped up qpf amounts to match upstream
trends and latest CAM output. Given crnt temps in the upper
teens to mid 20s, most precip starts as freezing rain, but a
switch occurs first along portions of the northern Dacks and
central/southern CPV, associated with downslope warming.
Elsewhere, cold air and freezing rain lingers the longest over
the SLV and east of the Greens, including the CT River Valley.
Still thinking ice accumulations of 0.15" to 0.30" in the
advisory and 0.50" to 0.75" in the ice storm warning looks
reasonable, given latest 21z HRRR and RAP data. Just minor
tweaks made in grids attm.

The gusty west to southwest winds on backside, especially parts
of the SLV and downslope portions of the eastern Greens could
produce additional power outages on Monday night into Tuesday.
Travel will be extremely difficult late this evening and
especially during the Monday morning commute.

[dryslot]

19/18F

[CT Valley Snowman]

Up to 29 meh

 

[WxWatcher007]

The climb begins. Up to 24.1°.

[512high]

30F/ cloudy

[moneypitmike]

23/22 at Pit2.  It'll start wintry in any case.

[Lava Rock]

19/18F

You cold. 29f here

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