January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormy]

Southern Arkansas to Norfolk on the deterministic is reminiscent of tracks from January 1966.

Other pieces of this puzzle not fitting together. AI and EPS don't like northern Va..

I was hoping to be able to feature in my Monday Newsletter Edition but I'm losing confidence.

[WxUSAF]

 

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, stormy said:

Southern Arkansas to Norfolk on the deterministic is reminiscent of tracks from January 1966.

Other pieces of this puzzle not fitting together. AI and EPS don't like northern Va..

I was hoping to be able to feature in my Monday Newsletter Edition but I'm losing confidence.

Ok

[EastCoast NPZ]

47 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Get used to disappointment. We are always in the model bullseye here.

Yep.  And then watch it trend SE day by day until we smoke a lungful of cirrus.

[frd]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'd rather have things be south at this juncture.

Vortex in SE Canada at that point, and goes well with the forecasting of the elongation of the PV near early Jan.  

Hopefully not as squashed as time moves on. We failed last year, or the year before in a similar fashion.   

Here is a 3 D vortex image, a bit outdated, but shows it pressing Southward.

 

 

 

[cbmclean]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

I think he meant to say, "there is no OVERstating..."

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

This could be a window for a 'bigger' coastal storm. Nice look up top and something brewing along the gulf coast.

[AlexD1990]

My birthday is the 9th. Can I get a storm named after me?

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[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

My birthday is the 9th. Can I get a storm named after me?

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No. You are in Delaware.

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

My birthday is the 9th. Can I get a storm named after me?

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk
 

We will call it the small Alex. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This could be a window for a 'bigger' coastal storm. Nice look up top and something brewing along the gulf coast.

Weekend rule, big ones sniffed early, and all that good stuff. 

[Ji]

Weekend rule, big ones sniffed early, and all that good stuff. 

We are due for a 1996 La Niña Type blizzard

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Just gotta avoid the infamous delay pattern onset . Right now it looks like 1/7-1/10.  If that starts to become 1/15 then 1/20 then we are underway with a problem once again 

I'm as guarded as you, but this doesn't seem to be a head fake. We're inside D5 for the pattern flip now.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Models are looking good for mid-January. The only issue is how far out it is. 

It's a shame this deep -NAO trough for the next 7 days will be dry, but -NAO's usually are a drier pattern in La Nina. 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I'm keeping an eye on it. A little too far south on the 12z EPS, but still a week out. Still time for some changes up top.

I agree. I would definitely be more excited for this one if I was in Cvill or down where you are as it stands its far enough out to see a shift that ends up favoring us. The individual ens low pressures really just need a couple hundred mile shift and we'd be in business. 

[frd]

 

Tomer Burg

 

@burgwx

 

 

Very much in alignment here - not sure exactly when things fully kick off but once they do I suspect we'll have at least a 2-3 week window more favorable for moderate-major snowstorms vs. climo. South of NYC is likely more favored than north of NYC given Greenland block climo, but too soon to specifically rule NYC nor anyone else out.

 

 

12:21 PM · Dec 28, 2025

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[mitchnick]

Euro weeklies are still below or around normal, but have lost the AN precip during the 2nd period to a little BN unfortunately. 

[jayyy]

the EURO AI just took 18 inches away

Can’t take away what we never had bud. Wild that you live and die off these 300 hour clown maps each day. Must be stressful

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro weeklies are still below or around normal, but have lost the AN precip during the 2nd period to a little BN unfortunately. 

Eh I don't pay much attention to temps on the extended products. I will roll with this h5 look mid-late month with an impressive EPO ridge and a stretched TPV- that's a cold look if you follow the flow. Also a gradient pattern with a flat SE ridge where waves can track along the boundary that should be to our south at times. Also hints at a -NAO and low heights in the 50-50 region.

[Ji]

Euro weeklies are still below or around normal, but have lost the AN precip during the 2nd period to a little BN unfortunately. 

Hard to get above normal precip if we have a -epo

[CAPE]

Just now, Ji said:

Hard to get above normal precip if we have a -epo

That look has worked out for much of our region quite often in recent winters, but maybe not so much for you ? 

[CAPE]

Don't need ABOVE normal precip. Also its a super LR model. How the fuck is it going to accurately depict how many storms might hit a particular region. All we need is a few, and precip can still be below or normal, with normal to above normal snowfall.

[aldie 22]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro weeklies are still below or around normal, but have lost the AN precip during the 2nd period to a little BN unfortunately. 

Let's see what tonight's weeklies say before Ji panics

[CAPE]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

Let's see what tonight's weeklies say before Ji panics

He is already panicking over an EPO ridge lol.

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Let's see what tonight's weeklies say before Ji panics

Ji has already canceled next winter. He's never satisfied with anything. IIRC, he was dismal in Jan 2010.