January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I look at models. The EPS is below normal for precip. 

And you know better than that. As far as precipitation, that will change as we move ahead....c'mon man. really? You know better than that ( and maybe you are right, but there a good chance you are wrong )

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

And you know better than that. As far as precipitation, that will change as we move ahead....c'mon man. really? You know better than that ( and maybe you are right, but there a good chance you are wrong )

lol. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

And you know better than that. As far as precipitation, that will change as we move ahead....c'mon man. really? You know better than that ( and maybe you are right, but there a good chance you are wrong )

Precip is dictated from trough axis. I’m just not a fan of it. It doesn’t mean no snow, but overall the EPS looks BN in precip. 

[Damage In Tolland]

That is some ridiculous cold modeled . You’d think it would modify at least some 

[jbenedet]

Good thing having the snow cover around before that serious freeze next weekend…Oof.

Insulate the basement/pipes and protect the plant roots…

[Go Kart Mozart]

Euro Skynet annihilates ENE toward the end of the month.

[moneypitmike]

I'm really hopeful we can get some decent snows to go along with the mild-down.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I look at models. The EPS is below normal for precip. 

Looks cold with potential for powder kegs still. 5-7 day window from Jan 23-Jan 30 for two important events. I’d say 70% chance we get some good snows on one of them, 30% chance suppression on both 

[Damage In Tolland]

Also might be light snow Wednesday night 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Also might be light snow Wednesday night 

Maybe I can reach climo on just 1-3 inchers. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

@ORH_wxman how was the snowpack in southern New England for the past few arctic outbreaks. I feel like we usually are bare ground lately for them. Will hit different this time with a deep (for SNE standards) snowpack.. 

[ORH_wxman]

18 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

@ORH_wxman how was the snowpack in southern New England for the past few arctic outbreaks. I feel like we usually are bare ground lately for them. Will hit different this time with a deep (for SNE standards) snowpack.. 

Feb 2023 was bare ground. But we had snow pack for Jan 2019, late Dec 2017/early Jan 2018, and Feb 2016. 
 

Any other arctic outbreaks since 2016 that I didn’t list were prob pretty meh so they don’t stick out to me. 
 

But that Feb ‘23 outbreak was so impressive considering it was bare ground and yet it fell in prestigious company for all time lows at some of the major SNE sites. 

[WxWatcher007]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feb 2023 was bare ground. But we had snow pack for Jan 2019, late Dec 2017/early Jan 2018, and Feb 2016. 
 

Any other arctic outbreaks since 2016 that I didn’t list were prob pretty meh so they don’t stick out to me. 
 

But that Feb ‘23 outbreak was so impressive considering it was bare ground and yet it fell in prestigious company for all time lows at some of the major SNE sites. 

Feb '23 was brief but real good. Montreal Express. 

Models are waffling on whether this is run of the mill Arctic cold or exotic stuff that's coming in about a week. We'll see what happens. 

[VivaManchVegas]

27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Feb '23 was brief but real good. Montreal Express. 

Models are waffling on whether this is run of the mill Arctic cold or exotic stuff that's coming in about a week. We'll see what happens. 

That was a strange blip to a warm winter.  Coldest it has ever been in the 17 years living in Amherst.  -24 if I remember correctly. 

Edit: I was wrong -13.  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Nice hit on AI GFS

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Looks cold with potential for powder kegs still. 5-7 day window from Jan 23-Jan 30 for two important events. I’d say 70% chance we get some good snows on one of them, 30% chance suppression on both 

The AO is now forecasted to go -4.

Worried about suppression.

[Fozz]

GFS OP drops the PV sooner than previous runs, crushes everything to the point of Congrats Myrtle Beach, and leaves the next weekend frigid and dry.

[weathafella]

The Feb 2023 cold produced the coldest day at BOS since I was 10 years old.  I’m 79.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

GFS OP drops the PV sooner than previous runs, crushes everything to the point of Congrats Myrtle Beach, and leaves the next weekend frigid and dry.

Scooter knew 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Scooter knew 

Ya cuz the GFS OP is awesome at 7-8 days out.  And if you remember, a week ago we were supposed to be dry now…how’d that work out? It didn’t.  Gotta wait and see, just like we did for this current period.  

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Scooter knew 

I guess you haven't been following the models this winter.

[Typhoon Tip]

Hopefully this happens barely 3 days after the deepest season defining arctic nadir pattern... 

[MJO812]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Ya cuz the GFS OP is awesome at 7-8 days out.  And if you remember, a week ago we were supposed to be dry now…how’d that work out? It didn’t.  Gotta wait and see, just like we did for this current period.  

Bingo

[Fozz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hopefully this happens barely 3 days after the deepest season defining arctic nadir pattern... 

Yeah you’re teasing, but knowing the climo and the track of the storm at this time of year and with antecedent frigid air, I’d take my chances with a 979 off the coast in a heartbeat.

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya cuz the GFS OP is awesome at 7-8 days out.  And if you remember, a week ago we were supposed to be dry now…how’d that work out? It didn’t.  Gotta wait and see, just like we did for this current period.  

It's gonna snow a lot. Don't believe the extreme suppression that's being shown. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's gonna snow a lot. Don't believe the extreme suppression that's being shown. 

We don’t know if that plays out like that. That isn’t a lock by a long shot.  We didn’t think it was gonna snow yesterday and today 7-8 days ago either, if we went by what modeling was showing then. I mean, really? Give me a break. 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

We don’t know if that plays out like that.  We didn’t think it was gonna snow yesterday and today 7-8 days ago either, if we went by what modeling was showing then. I mean, really? Give me a break. 

I genuinely think the pattern is pretty loaded for a large overrunning Miller A/B type storm in late Jan. And it's showing up in spurts across op runs. 

With today's event the AI models had the best handle several days out so definitely keep an eye on what they show. 

[MJO812]

3 snowstorms on the AIFS