Wxoutlooksblog Posted Saturday at 09:01 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:01 PM 3 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said: Ensembles really appeared to have overdone the warmth over the east US around the mid month period. The sings of an east coast trough are appearing around 1/11, which is a solid few days earlier than expected a few days ago. That will likely shorten our torch from 1/5-1/10, before a more favorable pattern reloads. I just don't like seeing such dry and mild conditions across south, central, and west US. They have a lot of ground to make up. Midwest and northeast are the only parts of the US that have had any meaningful cold or snow whatsoever this season. Even with the east coast trough, unless the pacific slows down enough to give us a big coastal, everything will be dominated by the northern stream. That means it'll take a lot of little events to boost us up towards seasonal average. I'm a bit skeptical Count me as not skeptical at all. Winter has had a great start. We will get our snow when cold fronts stall just to our south and east and waves of low pressure move up along them. We are already ahead of the pace of most recent winter seasons on snowfall and look to continue the pace by mid January. As I previously noted, there's a strong cold front which was timed for January 12th and is now timed for Jan 10th or 11th. Patience. WX/PT 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Saturday at 09:27 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:27 PM january 15th KU potential? a day or two before or after! Get ready! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Saturday at 11:32 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:32 PM A few flurries are possible in parts of the region late tonight and early tomorrow. Some areas could receive a dusting of snow. Tomorrow and Monday will be mainly dry and unseasonably cool days with highs finishing near freezing in New York City. Milder weather will likely begin to overspread the region on Tuesday. The milder period appears likely to last for about a week, but there is some uncertainty about its duration. Afterward, conditions could become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +9.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.782 today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted yesterday at 12:03 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:03 AM Went out onto the lake later this afternoon to see the guys and drink a couple beers once the wind died. 6-7" of clear hard ice. 2 fires going along the shoreline to warm up. It was nice. Young bucks playing hockey on the rink they been clearing snow off for a few weeks. Mostly pickerel caught. But a few yellow perch, which are the best to eat when caught through the ice. The pickerel were scattered around on the ice for the Bald eagles. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted yesterday at 12:45 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:45 AM Currently: Cloudy. Calm. 21.2F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted yesterday at 12:56 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:56 AM Look at that change on the GEFS just since the 00z run this morning. LOL Current 18z: 00z run from last night: 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 01:18 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:18 AM 21 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Look at that change on the GEFS just since the 00z run this morning. LOL Current 18z: 00z run from last night: Cant trust these models at all. Another turnaround. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted yesterday at 01:38 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:38 AM Wow another flip flop. These models suck past 3 minutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted yesterday at 01:48 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:48 AM I won’t mind a little bit of a warmup. Been going through heating oil like water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted yesterday at 01:57 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:57 AM Models generally rush a pattern change (both for bad patterns and good patterns). However, the models appear to be converging on the 11th for a flip back to colder weather after our torch. But it would likely take a few days after that to be able to usher in a snowy pattern. Hopefully not just for us but for Central US as well. They’re having a record warm and snowless winter. Start getting some storms passing through that region and then we can get some more passing through here as well. Our odds are better when we’re not just limited to northern stream clippers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted yesterday at 01:58 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:58 AM 9 minutes ago, Prue11 said: I won’t mind a little bit of a warmup. Been going through heating oil like water Same. Quarter tank in a month. Can’t remember last time that happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted yesterday at 02:08 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:08 AM 8 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Same. Quarter tank in a month. Can’t remember last time that happened When we have a cold, or slightly colder winter like we are having. I go through 150 gallons of oil per month. Currently: Mostly cloudy. 18.9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted yesterday at 02:45 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:45 AM 47 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Same. Quarter tank in a month. Can’t remember last time that happened 1/4 tank a month during winter sounds good to me. Like Sussex said I’ve gone through almost 1/2 a tank a month and my thermostat is never set higher than 66 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 04:22 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:22 AM Gfs lost the big cutter. It keeps squashing it on every run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted yesterday at 04:43 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:43 AM This flu sucks. Would like a warm up so I can go outside and be able to breathe without it hurting 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted yesterday at 04:56 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:56 AM 9 minutes ago, psv88 said: This flu sucks. Would like a warm up so I can go outside and be able to breathe without it hurting For that reason the 159hr cutter will become the typical lame SWFE some sleet to rain to prolong your suffering. Hope it's better soon. I just dealt with it and many of my friends and coworkers are sick too. Bad flu season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted yesterday at 05:09 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:09 AM 24 minutes ago, psv88 said: This flu sucks. Would like a warm up so I can go outside and be able to breathe without it hurting Hope you feel better soon. I just got my flu shot which I hope helps. A little warmup won’t hurt anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted yesterday at 05:23 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:23 AM 3 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Wow another flip flop. These models suck past 3 minutes there has been no flip flopping on the GFS , Canadian and Euro Ops through Sunday Jan. 11 all 3 have the cold returning that day - its after that the models begin having differing opinions especially on any storm development and or tracks which is normal at that range........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted yesterday at 05:25 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:25 AM 29 minutes ago, jm1220 said: For that reason the 159hr cutter will become the typical lame SWFE some sleet to rain to prolong your suffering. Hope it's better soon. I just dealt with it and many of my friends and coworkers are sick too. Bad flu season. 16 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Hope you feel better soon. I just got my flu shot which I hope helps. A little warmup won’t hurt anyone. Thanks. I actually got the shot. So I assume it would have been worse if I hadn’t. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted yesterday at 07:15 AM Share Posted yesterday at 07:15 AM 2 hours ago, psv88 said: This flu sucks. Would like a warm up so I can go outside and be able to breathe without it hurting Sure it's not COVID? I had it last year in December, came down with it while in Iceland for our first winter trip. Absolutely sucked and I did everything in my power not to let it ruin our trip, which was difficult when it's built around hiking and outdoor activity. But the painful breathing (like vague sense of soreness when you take a deep breath) has been a hallmark symptom of having COVID pretty good. I suppose ultimately it doesn't really matter much anymore, but yeah. Feel better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted yesterday at 07:53 AM Share Posted yesterday at 07:53 AM everyone get flu vaccines.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted yesterday at 10:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:54 AM It's snowing once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted yesterday at 11:02 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:02 AM Dusting here. Still flurrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted yesterday at 11:33 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:33 AM Another morning, another light coating - very light this time - underway here. Looking at the radar, further east of me in Central Suffolk looks to be under better echoes than I am, but not seeing ISP reporting anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted yesterday at 11:45 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:45 AM 50 minutes ago, Rjay said: It's snowing once again Light dusting here now with some large aggregates. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted yesterday at 11:46 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:46 AM Light measurable here again. 3 of the first 4 days of the year. I like the percentage. 25⁰, S- 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted yesterday at 12:10 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:10 PM Beautiful morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted yesterday at 12:13 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:13 PM 4 hours ago, nycwinter said: everyone get flu vaccines.. To each their own but no flu or vaccine here in my house as I just take ivermectin morning and nite and then I call it a day,,,,,,,,in other news it's 22 chilly degrees here right now 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted yesterday at 12:18 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:18 PM Enough to be measurable and to have to clean the cars off again. Ill take it, keeps covering up the dirty snow. Even this nuisance stuff is better than most of our previous few years. dont remember the last time i couldnt take down christmas decorations yet because of the snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted yesterday at 12:30 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:30 PM 21.4 light snow continues, driveway covered. Today marks day 30 with snow cover this season. Surpassing last years 51 days seems like a good bet right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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